The first week or two of college football brings one of the more unique slates of the entire season, given how long certain lines have been available in the betting markets.
In total, we have five FBS games on the slate for Saturday, and each game has brought an interesting story to the table in terms of line movement since markets opened on Action Labs back in June.
Let's get into Week 0…
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 50.5 -108o / -112u | +130 |
| K State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 50.5 -108o / -112u | -160 |
Kansas State opened as 3.5-point favorites back in June, has dipped as low as -3 on multiple occasions, but has not really budged off either of those numbers from a spread standpoint.
When markets opened in June and through July, K-State received some decent action on the moneyline, taking the number from -155 to -175 earlier this month before the market took a dive. The Wildcats were -175 on August 13th and are now back to around their opening price, at-160 now.
Overall, Kansas State has boded well in their opener with Chris Klieman, outscoring opponents 144 to 13 since losing to Akron in their opener back in 2020.
| Idaho State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+26.5 -110 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | +1400 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-26.5 -110 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | -3200 |
The Idaho State-UNLV market only opened up on Action Labs about two weeks ago, with the Runnin' Rebels favored by 25.5 and a total of 63 in the game.
For the first ten days or so the market was opened, Idaho State was getting action moving the spread down to 23.5, but that all changed earlier this week. As of yesterday, the line got as high as 27.5 to UNLV, which has now settled around 26.5 and 27 a day or two before kickoff.
The total, on the other hand, has consistently gone up. After opening at 63, it hit 63.5, 64, 64.5 and then shot up to its current line of 65.5. The total at 65.5 would be the highest for any game this weekend.
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -108 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | +350 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -112 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | -455 |
Now we are getting into some line movement. Back in June, Kansas opened as a 14-point favorite over Fresno State with a total set at 51.5. The over/under has budged a bit, consistently moving down from 51.5 to 51 and now sitting at 50.5, a few days before kick.
The spread has been an interesting story. About seven days ago, the Jayhawks moved from -13.5 to -12.5 in a single morning, continuing the trend of opening favorites seeing their line shrink.
The Jayhawks have had some serious issues opening the season in recent years — at least from a betting perspective. Since 2012, they are 10-3 SU in their opener, but a dreadful 2-11 ATS, including 0-9 ATS when favored by under 28 pts or an underdog.
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -112 | 61.5 -105o / -115u | +310 |
| W. Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -108 | 61.5 -105o / -115u | -395 |
We've made it. The lone favorite in the Week 0 field is seeing some action go their way. Western Kentucky opened as an 8.5-point favorite against Sam Houston State, and the line has slowly climbed up week after week to its current number of 10.5 for the Hilltoppers.
Even after getting to -10 on July 28th and bouncing back, the line still steadied at -10 a week later and has continued to climb. The total has been a bit different, bouncing around more than the line in this game. After opening at 61.5, it dropped to as low as 59.5 in mid-July. By August 1st it was back to 60.5, which has now turned just back into the opener with a few days until kick.
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -112 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +110 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -108 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -130 |
Finally, it's the game that should be played at least four hours later than it is — Stanford–Hawaii. Back in June, the Cardinal opened as 2.5-point favorites on the road in the Aloha state. By late July, the line was pick'em and quickly turned to Hawaii -1.5, which has now already ballooned to the Rainbow Warriors laying 2.5 points — a full five-point swing from the opener.
In the last 20 years, we've only seen 39 total teams open as an underdog in their opener and close as a favorite — those teams are 17-21-1 ATS. When the line moves 3+ points, the team's direction it moves in (-2 to -5 as an example) is 11-17-1 ATS. The last time we saw a team move 5+ points from an underdog to a favorite came back in 2021 and 2022:
Since 2019, Hawaii has struggled at home early in the season. In the first three games of the regular season, when Hawaii plays at home, they are 3-7 ATS in this span, failing to cover the spread by over 8 PPG on average in those matchups.
