College Football Odds & Picks for Bowling Green vs Michigan: Don’t Expect Much Offense

College Football Odds & Picks for Bowling Green vs Michigan: Don’t Expect Much Offense article feature image

Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)

Bowling Green vs Michigan Odds

Saturday, Sept. 16
7:30 p.m. ET
Big Ten Network
Bowling Green Odds
-110o / -110u
Michigan Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Michigan will finish up its non-conference schedule with Bowling Green in Jim Harbaugh’s final suspended game. 

Bowling Green comes into this game with a 1-1 record and is coming off of a 38-15 win over Eastern Illinois in its home opener. The Falcons are 1-1 against the spread and have gone over in each of their first two games. 

Despite Harbaugh absence in both games, Michigan has a 2-0 record, with wins over East Carolina and UNLV. The Wolverines are 0-2 against the spread and have gone under in both games. 

The current forecast for this matchup calls for moderate temperatures around 69 degrees at kickoff, with it slowly dropping throughout the game. There will be cross winds around four miles per hour. Barring any significant change, the weather should have no impact on the game.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

Bowling Green Falcons

In his fifth season as the Bowling Green head coach, Scot Loeffler has his team off to a 1-1 start. The Falcons have averaged 31.0 points per game and 6.6 yards per play. They have a 47% Success Rate and have averaged 3.93 points per opportunity. They average 27.3 seconds per play and 63 offensive plays per game. 

The Falcons' offense has averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game for an average of 252.5 passing yards. Connor Bazelak leads the way with a 59.2% completion percentage and 8.0 yards per attempt. He has 390 passing yards, but he’s thrown three interceptions to go along with his three touchdowns.

As a team, the Falcons have a 48% Passing Success Rate and they’ve averaged three passes per game over 20 yards. 

As a team, Bowling Green is averaging 32.5 rush attempts and 166 yards per game. Multiple backs have contributed to the offense, with the team leader only managing 17 attempts.

Said team leader, Terion Stewart has 17 carries for 106 yards and two touchdowns.

As a team, the Falcons have a 48% Rushing Success Rate. They’ve done this behind an offensive line that's averaging 3.4 Line Yards per attempt and a 14% Stuff Rate. 

On defense, Bowling Green has allowed 24.5 points per game and 5.6 yards per play. They've allowed a 39% Success Rate and 3.14 points per opportunity. They’ve generated Havoc on 19% of plays. 

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Michigan Wolverines

Sherrone Moore leads the Wolverines in Harbaugh’s final suspended game. Through its first two games, Michigan is averaging 32.5 points per game and 7.3 yards per play. The Wolverines have a 48% Success Rate and average 4.21 points per opportunity.

While somewhat affected by their level of competition, they’re among the slowest-paced offenses in the country, with an average of 31.5 seconds per play and just 61.5 plays per game.

J.J. McCarthy is completing 87.3% of his passes for an average of 10.1 yards per attempt. He has five touchdowns and no interceptions. As a team, the Wolverines have a 59% Passing Success Rate and have averaged four passes per game over 20 yards.

Through two games, Michigan is averaging 32 rush attempts per game and 4.7 yards per attempt. Blake Corum leads the team with 25 carries for 153 yards and four touchdowns. Donovan Edwards has struggled slightly with a 2.6 yards per carry average, but he’s contributed with nine receptions.

As a team, Michigan has a 39% Rushing Success Rate.

There have been some early-season offensive line concerns amidst the fanbase. But as a unit, they've generated 3.13 Line Yards per attempt and a 13% Stuff Rate.

The Wolverines have allowed just 5.0 points per game and 4.1 yards per play. Opponents have a 38% Success Rate and have scored just 1.67 points per opportunity.

They’ve struggled slightly against the pass, allowing a 42% Passing Success Rate. They have generated Havoc on 19% of plays.

Bowling Green vs Michigan

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Michigan match up statistically:

Bowling Green Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Rush Success4044
Line Yards4328
Pass Success4341
Finishing Drives6210
Quality Drives609
Michigan Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Rush Success9677
Line Yards71106
Pass Success985
Finishing Drives6550
Quality Drives3188
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling3473
PFF Coverage11339
Special Teams SP+10236
Middle 82833
Seconds per Play27.3 (72)31.5 (128)
Rush Rate51.6% (87)52.0% (58)

Bowling Green vs Michigan

Betting Pick & Prediction

The betting has been relatively split on this game, with 56% of bets and 52% of the money favoring Bowling Green getting 40.5 points.

Despite this, the betting the line has moved up a point and a half after opening at 39. 

After opening with a total of 49.5, the line has ballooned up to 53.5 with 83% of bets favoring the over. 

Following the line movement, my preferred play on this game is on the under. With the large spread and Michigan's projected pace of play, there's a safe expectation that Michigan will take an early lead and run the ball once the game is fully in hand.

The second-half spread of 14.5 compared to 25 in the first half also indicates this expectation of the clock bleeding.

While Bowling Green has hit the over in consecutive games, its limited success is going to keep the overall scoring lower.

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