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Wilson: My Favorite Situational Spots to Bet in Week 3

Sep 15, 2018 8:00 AM EDT
  • College football expert Collin Wilson is back with his nine favorite college football bets for Week 3.
  • This week's slate is littered with situational spots from which bettors can profit.

The CW9 rolls on after a 5-4 week to stay positive on the season. We ran out of steam with our Liberty run, but a nice FCS Sacramento State play helped get the column in the black.

Week 3 started with the Sunday Morning Coffee column that gives a baseline for college football openers and serves as an early look at the spreads offering the most value.

The power ratings did us well on openers, as a Duke -4 line has moved as far as Baylor -6 as of this writing. There currently is no value in the number, but there are plenty of others that are still worth a play before kickoff.

Statistics will start to become a bigger part of the column, as we now have multiple weeks of data for metrics such as yards per play, adjusted sack rate and third down conversions.

We’ll get more stats on success rate and explosive plays as the weeks go on, so always practice good money management until we have the full picture on each team.

Let’s get to the picks!

YTD: 11-7


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All data below as of Thursday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds, track your bets and follow all of our experts’ picks.


Saturday Morning Mimosas

Ball State at Indiana

  • Spread: Indiana -14
  • Over/Under: 58
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: Big Ten Network

Peyton Ramsey continues to be a reliable quarterback after finishing 2017 with 1,252 yards and a 10/5 TD/INT ratio. Through two games this season, Ramsey has a 73.5% completion rate, leading an Indiana offense that ranks 31st in efficiency.

The offensive line has done a great job keeping a clean pocket, allowing only one sack through two games.

Ball State continues its own magic along the offensive line; the issue for the Cardinals is a lack of playmaking, backed by an early explosiveness ranking of 115th and redzone points per attempt ranking of 103rd (4.56 per attempt).

Ball State was helped in its cover against Notre Dame with three interceptions and great starting field position. Look to back the more efficient team in Indiana, which should protect the ball better than Notre Dame did against the Cardinals.

Play On: Indiana -14

Miami (FL) at Toledo

  • Spread: Toledo +10
  • Over/Under: 57.5
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN2

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Credit:

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Peyton Ramsey

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
59
-4
59
-3.5
64.5
-11
67.5
-7.5
52
-3
53.5
-4.5
48
PK
47.5
+2.5
50.5
-7.5
50
-6.5
-2.5
44
-2.5
43.5
55
-4.5
54
-3
-3
54.5
-2.5
55
-6
66.5
-5.5
68.5
48
-11
49.5
-12
-2.5
73
-4
74.5
67.5
-5
60
-3
-3
53.5
-2.5
51.5
-1.5
57.5
-1
60
55
-3.5
55.5
-3
61
-3.5
60
-6
41
-2
40.5
PK
56.5
-3
55
-3.5
-3
47
-4
48
-6.5
55
-3.5
55
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
68
54.5
-6.5
55
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-4
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60
56
-11
55
-11.5
79
-13.5
80.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74
45
-6.5
46
-7
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-5.5
-5
44.5
-7
44
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-6.5
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-11.5

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