Wilson: My 9 Favorite College Football Bets For Week 4

Sep 22, 2018 8:30 AM EDT
  • College football expert Collin Wilson is back with his nine favorite college football bets for Week 4.
  • This week's slate is littered with great betting opportunities throughout the entire day.

The CW9 — my nine picks in this weekly column — went 5-4 in Week 3, moving us to 16-11 on the season.

With conference play starting for all FBS teams, situational spots and hangovers will become more apparent. At this point, every team has played at least three games, so explosiveness and efficiency metrics will become more important and reliable when handicapping a game.

Be sure to check out my Sunday Morning Coffee column for our Week 5 projected spreads and click here for my power ratings.

Let’s get to the picks!

YTD: 16-11


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Saturday Morning Mimosas

Georgia at Missouri

  • Spread: Missouri +14.5
  • Over/Under: 64.5
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

There is plenty to love about Georgia. It has a good chance to win the SEC and a shot at the national title. The Dawgs’ blowout win over South Carolina two weeks ago gave credence to the belief that they can return to the national championship game.

The advanced stats back up that notion, too, as Georgia ranks 13th on offense and second on defense when it comes to explosiveness.

Georgia’s defense to this point has been a little bend-don’t-break, preventing big plays but allowing the opposition to move the ball. Even so, the Bulldogs still rank 21st offensively and fifth defensively in finishing drives (defined as points per attempt past the 40-yard line).

Missouri had a tough time dealing with Purdue’s passing attack, so this early game could provide fireworks.

The Drew Lock-Derek Dooley experiment is off and running at Mizzou, as the Tigers are averaging 6.85 yards per play and rank in the top 20 of plenty of passing metrics.

Considering Georgia’s superb defensive explosiveness numbers, you’d expect the ‘Dogs to have no problem covering the spread — but not so fast.

A deeper look into Georgia’s stats reveals one critical issue — the Bulldogs’ defense is 127th in adjusted sack rate, 105th in completion percentage allowed and 109th in opportunity rate. That must be fixed if they want to be considered a serious title contender.

Missouri should have some success exposing Georgia’s flaws. Lock is 14th nationally in passing efficiency, and the Tigers’ offensive line has been stellar, boasting the seventh-best adjusted sack rate in the nation.

I am taking Missouri in this game, but my eyes will be completely fixated on how many times Lock is pressured.

Play On: Missouri +14.5


Saturday Afternoon Power Hour

Northern Illinois at Florida State

  • Spread: Florida State -10
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPNU

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Credit:

Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oregon Duck

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
MSST
MISS
--
+8.5
--
+10
TEX
KU
--
--
--
--
ECU
CIN
--
-18
--
-18
UCF
USF
--
+13.5
--
+14.5
OKLA
WVU
--
+2
--
-1
WASH
WSU
--
-3
--
-3.5
MICH
OSU
--
+3
--
+4
FLA
FSU
--
+3
--
+4
GT
UGA
--
-17
--
-17.5
SYR
BC
--
--
--
--
AUB
BAMA
--
-24
--
-24.5
MD
PSU
--
-14
--
-13.5
ILL
NW
--
-18
--
-18
UK
LOU
--
+17
--
+17.5
SC
CLEM
--
-25
--
-25
KSU
ISU
--
-14
--
-14
LSU
TA&M
--
-2
--
-1
ND
USC
--
+8
--
+10.5
BYU
UTAH
--
-13.5
--
-13.5
USU
BSU
--
-3
--
-3