Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oregon Duck
- College football expert Collin Wilson is back with his nine favorite college football bets for Week 4.
- This week's slate is littered with great betting opportunities throughout the entire day.
The CW9 — my nine picks in this weekly column — went 5-4 in Week 3, moving us to 16-11 on the season.
With conference play starting for all FBS teams, situational spots and hangovers will become more apparent. At this point, every team has played at least three games, so explosiveness and efficiency metrics will become more important and reliable when handicapping a game.
Let’s get to the picks!
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Saturday Morning Mimosas
Georgia at Missouri
- Spread: Missouri +14.5
- Over/Under: 64.5
- Time: 12 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ESPN
There is plenty to love about Georgia. It has a good chance to win the SEC and a shot at the national title. The Dawgs’ blowout win over South Carolina two weeks ago gave credence to the belief that they can return to the national championship game.
The advanced stats back up that notion, too, as Georgia ranks 13th on offense and second on defense when it comes to explosiveness.
Georgia’s defense to this point has been a little bend-don’t-break, preventing big plays but allowing the opposition to move the ball. Even so, the Bulldogs still rank 21st offensively and fifth defensively in finishing drives (defined as points per attempt past the 40-yard line).
Missouri had a tough time dealing with Purdue’s passing attack, so this early game could provide fireworks.
The Drew Lock-Derek Dooley experiment is off and running at Mizzou, as the Tigers are averaging 6.85 yards per play and rank in the top 20 of plenty of passing metrics.
Considering Georgia’s superb defensive explosiveness numbers, you’d expect the ‘Dogs to have no problem covering the spread — but not so fast.
A deeper look into Georgia’s stats reveals one critical issue — the Bulldogs’ defense is 127th in adjusted sack rate, 105th in completion percentage allowed and 109th in opportunity rate. That must be fixed if they want to be considered a serious title contender.
Missouri should have some success exposing Georgia’s flaws. Lock is 14th nationally in passing efficiency, and the Tigers’ offensive line has been stellar, boasting the seventh-best adjusted sack rate in the nation.
I am taking Missouri in this game, but my eyes will be completely fixated on how many times Lock is pressured.
Play On: Missouri +14.5
Saturday Afternoon Power Hour
Northern Illinois at Florida State
- Spread: Florida State -10
- Over/Under: 45
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ESPNU