Alabama vs. Texas A&M Odds, Predictions, Picks: The Early Bet to Make for Saturday’s SEC Matchup (Oct. 9)

Alabama vs. Texas A&M Odds, Predictions, Picks: The Early Bet to Make for Saturday’s SEC Matchup (Oct. 9) article feature image
Credit:

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Brian Robinson Jr.

  • The Alabama Crimson Tide and Texas A&M Aggies go head-to-head in SEC college football action on Saturday night.
  • The Crimson Tide have dominated in the first half this season, and Alex Hinton expects nothing different in this one.
  • Check out Hinton's full betting preview with updated odds, picks, and predictions below.

Alabama vs. Texas A&M Odds

Alabama Odds -18
Texas A&M Odds +18
Moneyline -1000 / +650
Over/Under 50 (-115 / -105)
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

In just five weeks, the perception of this matchup has drastically changed.

Back in the summer, Texas A&M was thought to be Alabama’s biggest challenger in the SEC West. However, back-to-back losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State have brought the Aggies and those expectations back to down to Earth.

Many thought Alabama was a bit vulnerable after Florida outplayed the Tide over the final three quarters.

Bama shut that down quickly with a dominant performance against Ole Miss. Alabama jumped out to a 35-0 lead before cruising to a 42-21 victory.

You would think that Alabama has smooth sailing until a likely SEC Championship matchup with Georgia. However, the next step is knocking off Texas A&M.


Alabama vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 9
8 p.m. ET
CBS

Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama Offense

Quarterback Bryce Young is once again the Heisman favorite after an efficient performance against Ole Miss. However, it was running back Brian Robinson who stole the show with 171 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

This season, Alabama has not been as dominant running the ball as it traditionally is. The Crimson Tide rank 60th in Line Yards and 64th in Rushing Success Rate.

However, it does not hurt to have a Heisman candidate at quarterback. Alabama ranks sixth in Passing Success Rate, and Young has carried the offense.

Young has no shortage of weapons, headlined by John Metchie, Jameson Williams, and Jahleel Billingsley. However, Alabama will be down a running back after it was announced that Jase McClellan is now out for the season with a knee injury.


Alabama Defense

Alabama’s defense answered its toughest offensive test to date, shutting down Matt Corral and the Ole Miss offense last week. The Rebels came in averaging over 600 yards per game, but the Crimson Tide held them to 291 yards of total offense.

Going from Corral to Zach Calzada should be a breeze for the Crimson Tide.

For the season, Alabama has top-25 rankings in Rushing Success Rate, Havoc, and Finishing Drives. The Crimson Tide will have a sizable advantage over Texas A&M in each area.

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Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M Offense

Texas A&M has a ton of talent of offense.

Isaiah Spiller may be the first running back taken in next year’s draft. Running back Devon Achane, wide receiver Ainias Smith, and tight end Jalen Wydermeyer are all future NFL talents as well.

However, the injury to quarterback Haynes King has capped the ceiling of the offense.

Backup QB Calzada has been underwhelming, to say the least. Since stepping in for the Colorado game, Calzada has completed 53.9 % of his passes with six touchdown passes and five interceptions.

For the season, Texas A&M ranks 107th in Passing Success Rate. Texas A&M is also averaging just 19 points per game over its last four games.


Texas A&M Defense

Texas A&M ranks 10th in pass coverage grade, according to PFF. Its secondary will be severely tested by the Alabama passing attack.

Texas A&M’s defensive line will have an edge going up against Alabama’s offensive line, as the Aggies rank 24th in Havoc and 45th in pass-rush grade.

However, A&M will struggle to limit big plays and prevent Alabama from capitalizing on its scoring opportunities. Alabama ranks 10th in big play percentage and 12th in Finishing Drives, while Texas A&M ranks 54th and 56th in each category, respectively.


Alabama vs. Texas A&M Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Alabama and Texas A&M match up statistically:

Alabama Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 64 14
Line Yards 60 116
Pass Success 6 72
Pass Blocking** 66 45
Big Play 10 54
Havoc 60 24
Finishing Drives 12 56
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas A&M Offense vs. Alabama Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 61 20
Line Yards 76 122
Pass Success 107 44
Pass Blocking** 83 31
Big Play 59 28
Havoc 105 20
Finishing Drives 52 22
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 32 30
PFF Coverage 20 10
Middle 8 5 57
SP+ Special Teams 31 5
Plays per Minute 107 96
Rush Rate 53.8% (71) 49.5% (97)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Alabama vs. Texas A&M Betting Pick

There is no need to overthink this pick.

Alabama has outscored its opponents, 150-16, in the first half this season. The Crimson Tide have been delivering knockout blows to their opponents in the early all season, and I expect Alabama to overwhelm Texas A&M in the first half and open up a big lead pretty early on.

Texas A&M is not going to be able to move the ball much with Calzada under center.  The Aggies boast a strong defense, but it will have a hard time giving up less than two or three touchdowns in the first half.

Alabama likely covers the full game spread of -17.5, but the first-half spread is the safer play to me. It’s hard to argue with a 100% hit rate.

Pick: Alabama 1H -10.5

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