Appalachian State vs. Arkansas State Odds & Picks: Target This Sun Belt Total (Nov. 6)
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- According to update odds, the total for Appalachian State vs. Arkansas State sits at 68, with the Mountaineers as three-touchdown favorites.
- Kyle Remillard is avoiding a side, instead opting to bet the total.
- Check out his top pick for this game below.
Appalachian State vs. Arkansas State Odds
| Appalachian State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -120 | 68 -120o / +100u | -1600 |
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 +100 | 68 -120o / +100u | +900 |
The Appalachian State Mountaineers control their own destiny as the leaders of the Sun Belt East division. The Mountaineers look to continue their hold atop the division as they travel to face the Arkansas State Red Wolves on Saturday afternoon.
Appalachian State was routed by Louisiana three weeks ago and would receive an opportunity at a rematch in the conference championship if it wins out. That’s all possible because of its 30-27 come-from-behind victory over Coastal Carolina.
According to PFF, App State has the 125th-easiest schedule remaining with only one opponent that has a winning record in South Alabama.
Arkansas State sits outside the top-120 teams in the nation, according to power rankings from SP+, PFF and Collin Wilson. The Red Wolves' defense ranks 128th in scoring, allowing 42 points per game.
Although this game presents the top and bottom teams from the Sun Belt, there is value to be had from a betting perspective.
Appalachian State Mountaineers
App State Offense
The App State offense exploded last week for 59 points against UL Monroe, which was the most its scored since 2017. The Mountaineers scored touchdowns on six of their nine offensive drives in the first half, contributing to 35 points.
Quarterback Chase Brice was terrific last week and has shown steady improvement throughout the season. He’s averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt to go along with 14 touchdown passes.
Brice has continued to feed his top two receivers in Corey Sutton and Malik Williams. The duo has totaled 1,302 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Mountaineers' offense owns a significant advantage in both Passing and Rushing Success Rates compared to the Arkansas State defense.
App State Defense
The Appalachian State defense has allowed 25 points and nearly 380 yards of total offense per game.
The Mountaineers rank 13th in the nation in tackling, according to PFF, and have been able to create chaos with their ranking of 25th in Havoc.
Much of that success is due to the play of linebackers D’Marco Jackson and Nick Hampton. The duo has combined for 19 tackles for loss to go along with eight sacks.
Appalachian State has been a bit suspect against the pass as its allowed 7.6 yards per pass attempt. It ranks outside the top 50 in Passing Success Rate and 80th in generating pass rush.
That’s a bit worrisome when matching up against an Arkansas State offense that passes the ball on 62% of its snaps.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State Offense
Butch Jones has been running a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense at Arkansas State. The unit ranks 11th in the nation in plays per minutes and leads the Sun Belt with 330 passing yards per game.
Arkansas State has stuck with a two-quarterback system between James Blackman and Layne Hatcher. Blackman will be out for this game as noted on the Sun Belt teleconference call this week.
Hatcher will get the start for the second week in a row and has averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt with 12 touchdowns.
He will get his top receiving threat back this week in Corey Rucker. Rucker has shown big-play ability and leads the team with eight touchdown receptions this year.
The Red Wolves are one of 20 teams that have scored on 20 passing touchdowns this season.
Arkansas State Defense
The Arkansas State defense is so bad that it may not be able to keep some local high school offenses out of the end zone.
The unit has allowed nearly 560 yards of offense and 42 points per game this season. Half of Arkansas State's opponents have scored 50 or more points this season.
The defense has allowed a whopping 8.1 yards per play, which ranks dead last in the country. Opponents average 7.0 yards per rush, which leads to a ranking of 112 in Rushing Success Rate.
Arkansas State has been no better against the pass, where it has allowed 9.8 yards per attempt and is 115th in Success Rate.
The Red Wolves rank among the worst in the nation in allowing explosive plays and Finishing Drives.
Appalachian State is poised to be the fifth team to put up a 50-burger on Arkansas State this season.
Appalachian State vs. Arkansas State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Appalachian State and Arkansas State match up statistically:
Appalachian State Offense vs. Arkansas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 63 | 112 | |
| Line Yards | 68 | 114 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 115 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 84 | 62 | |
| Big Play | 46 | 126 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 33 | 115 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Arkansas State Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 33 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 17 | |
| Pass Success | 65 | 57 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 72 | 80 | |
| Big Play | 28 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 115 | 25 | |
| Finishing Drives | 106 | 38 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 13 | 124 |
| Coverage | 66 | 122 |
| Middle 8 | 61 | 130 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 11 | 20 |
| Plays per Minute | 58 | 11 |
| Rush Rate | 56.4% (56) | 38.3% (127) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Appalachian State vs. Arkansas State Betting Pick
Appalachian State has proven it is not afraid to beat up on the bad teams this season. When facing teams ranked outside the top 50, the Mountaineers have averaged 42 points per game.
Also, they need to win to stay atop the division, so expect Shawn Clark to keep his foot on the gas pedal in this game.
The Mountaineers' offense is starting to get into their groove with back-to-back 500-yard performances while averaging 45 points. Now, they match up against a defensive group that ranks outside the top 120 in tackling, pass coverage and Middle Eight.
Though the Mountaineers are poised to continue that offensive trend, I’m looking at the total in this matchup.
Arkansas State plays at the 11th-fastest tempo in the country and only three teams pass the ball as often. The Red Wolves are averaging the 10th-most passing yards per game and have shown backdoor potential with late scores.
With that potential backdoor, I'm playing the over.
Pick: Over 68 (Play to 70)
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