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College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Arizona vs. Arizona State: Sun Devils Lack Motivation Against Wildcats

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Arizona vs. Arizona State: Sun Devils Lack Motivation Against Wildcats article feature image
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Christopher Hook/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Arizona Wildcats quarterback Will Plummer (15).

  • Arizona and Arizona State face off in an in-state rivalry game.
  • The Wildcats are 1-10, but seem to have more motivation than the Sun Devils, who haven't been good over the last month.
  • Kyle Remillard previews the game and offers up his best bet.

Arizona vs. Arizona State Odds

Saturday, Nov. 27
4 p.m. ET
Pac-12 Network
Arizona Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+20
-110
53
-110o / -110u
+800
Arizona State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-20
-110
53
-110o / -110u
-1375
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Territorial Cup between Arizona State and Arizona hasn’t had the same buzz to it over the last few years. That’s because the Arizona Wildcats have won just one game over the last two seasons, going a combined 1-15 in that span.

Last year’s game wasn’t much of a game, as Arizona State absolutely demolished its in-state “rival,” 70-7. The showdown was over in the opening seconds, as the Sun Devils took the opening kickoff to the house for a 100-yard touchdown. They followed that up with another five touchdowns in the opening half to take a 42-0 lead.

This year Arizona is 1-10 with its sole victory coming in a 10-3 win over California. The Wildcats have been outscored by an average margin of 31-17 this season. But if there was ever a time for Arizona to show some fight, it would be in this matchup to avenge last season’s trouncing.

Arizona State had high hopes of winning the Pac-12 this season with quarterback Jayden Daniels returning for his junior campaign. But the highly touted quarterback hasn’t quite lived up to the hype this year, and the Sun Devils fell to the middle of the pack with a 7-4 record.

Arizona State is officially out of the Pac-12 South division title hunt and doesn’t have much to get up for in this matchup. That may come back to bite them as nearly three-touchdown favorites in this game.


Arizona Wildcats

Though Arizona ranks outside the top 100, according to Collin Wilson’s power ratings, it has been playing spirited football over the last month. The Wildcats found their first victory over California and trailed Utah (as 24-point underdogs) by just two points late in the fourth quarter the following week.

Freshman Will Plummer has taken over the reigns as quarterback for the program over the last month. He’s averaged just 5.5 yards per pass attempt and has thrown five touchdowns to eight interceptions.

But he’s added another element to the Wildcats’ offense. With his legs, he has rushed for 50 yards or more in two of his last three games.

Arizona’s offense has averaged just 17.2 points and 350 yards per game, both ranking outside the top 100. But the Wildcats have found a way to manufacture offense and keep themselves competitive against the top teams on their schedule.

They have covered the spread in five of their seven games as a double-digit underdog this season.

Opponent Spread Final Score ATS Differential
BYU +13.5 24-16 +5.5
Oregon +29.5 41-19 +7.5
UCLA +16 34-16 -2
Washington +17 21-16 +12
USC +22 41-34 +15
Utah +24 38-29 +15
Washington State +14.5 44-18 -11.5

Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State’s offense has averaged 29 points per game while putting up just over 200 yards rushing and passing per contest.

The rushing attack has been the Sun Devils’ bread and butter this season, as it is ranked seventh in Success Rate and fourth in Line Yards. Arizona State has averaged 5.2 yards per carry, thanks to running back Rachaad White and Daniels.

White has rushed for 908 yards on the season while averaging 5.6 yards per carry and punching in 14 touchdowns.

Daniels has averaged 5.4 yards per carry to go along with five rushing touchdowns. But Daniels hasn’t seen the same success as a passer this season, tossing more interceptions (nine) than touchdowns (touchdowns).

The Arizona defense has been mediocre this season and ranks among the middle of the nation with the 59th Rushing and 48th Passing Success Rates. The Wildcats have been strong at limiting the big plays, which will force Arizona State to need to methodically move the ball down the field.

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Arizona vs. Arizona State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona and Arizona State match up statistically:

Arizona Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 93 49
Line Yards 82 75
Pass Success 125 39
Pass Blocking** 71 86
Big Play 125 57
Havoc 111 44
Finishing Drives 126 47
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Arizona State Offense vs. Arizona Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 7 59
Line Yards 4 61
Pass Success 75 48
Pass Blocking** 14 76
Big Play 24 16
Havoc 71 63
Finishing Drives 37 121
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 98 51
Coverage 127 41
Middle 8 100 45
SP+ Special Teams 54 97
Plays per Minute 28 103
Rush Rate 49.1% (99) 60.5% (25)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Arizona vs. Arizona State Betting Pick

The Sun Devils have been underwhelming over the last month, going 2-3 straight up and just 1-4 against the spread.

Arizona, on the other hand, has covered four of its last five games. In its seven games as a double-digit underdog this season, the Wildcats are 5-2 against the number and covering by an average of six points in those games.

Wildcats head coach Jedd Fisch reminisced on the game last year in his press conference, saying that the matchup this year is personal. He brought up the fact that Arizona State passed the ball on fourth-and-four last year when leading 63-7, which led to the Sun Devils’ final touchdown.

Arizona will come out spirited in this game to avenge the 63-point debacle from last season.

Some are questioning if this will be the final game for head coach Herm Edwards after the ugly defeat to Oregon State last week. The Sun Devils are 24-17 with Edwards at the helm and they lack motivation heading into the 95th edition of the Territorial Cup.

Pick: Arizona State +20.5 (Play to +18)

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