Boston College vs. Clemson Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on ACC Over/Under (Saturday, Oct. 2)

Boston College vs. Clemson Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on ACC Over/Under (Saturday, Oct. 2) article feature image
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  • The Boston College Eagles and Clemson Tigers will match up in an ACC contest on Saturday night.
  • Clemson finds itself coming off a tough loss to NC State last week, but it's still a favorite of more than two touchdowns on Saturday.
  • Check out Kody Malstrom's full betting guide for the game below, along with his pick and prediction for Boston College vs. Clemson.

Boston College vs. Clemson Odds

Boston College Odds +14.5 (-105)
Clemson Odds -14.5 (-115)
Moneyline +500 / -720
Over/Under 46 (-115 / -105)
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV ACC Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

If you would’ve told me before the season that Clemson would be out of the College Football Playoff picture and behind Boston College in the ACC standings this year, I would’ve called you a liar.

Boy, would I be wrong.

After seeing Clemson in four of the past six National Championship matchups and hoisting the trophy in two of them, it’s still shocking to see the Tigers play this poorly.

Even with the loss of Trevor Lawerence to the NFL, it was wildly expected coach Dabo Swinney would still have this team in dominant form.

After a disappointing loss to NC State, the Tigers look to get back on track in Week 5.

Meanwhile, Boston College is off to a great start at 4-0 after defeating Missouri in overtime last week.


Boston College vs. Clemson Betting Preview

Saturday, October 2
7:30 p.m. ET
ACC Network

Boston College Eagles

Boston College Offense

Normally when the starting quarterback for any team goes down, the offense takes a step back.

That isn’t the case for Boston College so far, as it has continually put up eye-popping numbers. When quarterback Phil Jurkovec went down against UMass, it was time for Dennis Grosel to shine.

So far, Grosel has thrown for 477 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Not bad for someone who was expected to be the backup all season.

The passing success has been in large part thanks to their offensive line. Ranking second in the nation in Pass Blocking, Grosel has had plenty of time to make the right read while in the pocket. He’ll have plenty of time in the pocket in this matchup, as Clemson ranks 100th in Def. Pass Rush.

BC will need to keep the Tigers on their toes as Clemson boasts great defensive marks.

BC is more than capable of running the ball — as well as efficiently pass it — as the Eagles rank in the top 20 in both Rush and Pass Success.


Boston College Defense

Not only does Boston College possess a great offense, but the defense has also been holding its own.

Currently ranking in the top 30 in Rush and Pass Success, the Eagles have done a great job at limiting opposing offenses.

Even though Clemson has struggled on offense so far this season, Boston College will need to prepare for a step up in talent after a soft early-season schedule.

One of the best traits a team can have when it’s a decent-sized underdog is the ability to limit an opponent’s scoring. BC does a great job of this when teams are past the 40, currently ranking seventh in Def. Finishing Drives.

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Clemson Tigers

Clemson Offense

In the past, Clemson showed it could handle the constant loss/reload of talent.

So what’s so different this time around?

So far this season, quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei hasn’t shown the ability to pass at a consistent level, which is a drastic change after years of Lawrence tossing dimes game in and game out.

So far this season, Uiagalelei has thrown for 586 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. This has resulted in a Pass Success of 91st.

Not ideal for a team that came into the season with championship aspirations.

Worse yet, Clemson is also taking a hit in the run game.

Lead running back Will Shipley suffered an injury that will keep him out for 3-4 weeks. Kobe Pace will look to carry more of a load in his place, but he’s currently only rushing for 93 yards and one touchdown.


Clemson Defense

While Clemson’s offense has taken a drastic step back in production, Clemson’s typical vaunted defense has remained the same. This is a reminder that defensive coordinator Brent Venables is one of the best in the nation.

Venables has this Tigers defense ranked in the top 20 in both Def. Rush and Pass Success.

This is one of the very few bright spots for Clemson as it has stumbled out the gates this season.

Boston College will be hard pressed to score on Clemson when it gets past the 40, as Clemson is No. 1 in the nation in Def. Finishing Drives.

Clemson only has one glowing weakness on defense so far: it has struggled to get to the quarterback. Currently ranking 100th in Pass Rush, it has allowed quarterbacks to feel comfortable in the pocket.

If Clemson wants to put away BC — and more importantly cover the spread — it’ll need to generate a rush on Grosel.


Boston College vs. Clemson Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boston College and Clemson match up statistically:

Boston College Offense vs. Clemson Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 11 13
Line Yards 91 25
Pass Success 19 19
Pass Blocking** 2 100
Big Play 51 8
Havoc 37 41
Finishing Drives 32 1
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Clemson Offense vs. Boston College Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 47 29
Line Yards 37 37
Pass Success 91 26
Pass Blocking** 65 76
Big Play 125 4
Havoc 94 29
Finishing Drives 85 7
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 8 88
PFF Coverage 8 6
Middle 8 55 111
SP+ Special Teams 8 52
Plays per Minute 108 48
Rush Rate 64.5% (17) 49.2% (100)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


What pops out right away is both team’s Def. Finishing Drives.

Both rank in the top 10, so points may be tough to come by. This shows as the game opened at 46.5. Both teams also limit the Big Play, with BC ranking fourth and Clemson ranking seventh.

While BC has great offensive metrics so far, it also plays at a snail’s pace. Plenty of time will be ticking off the clock when BC has the ball while trying to figure out the Tigers defense.


Boston College vs. Clemson Betting Pick

Teams can’t do anything midseason about who they play. So far, Boston College’s success has been the product of a cupcake schedule.

The Eagles offense may be in shock when they have trouble for the first time.

While BC’s numbers may be skewed because of who it’s played, Clemson has no excuse for how it has performed so far. The defense has been great as expected, but its offense needs to find answers fast if it still wants to make it to the ACC Championship game.

With that said, the number is too large for me to take Clemson, and BC hasn’t proven that it can handle the big boys.

My focus is on the total.

With both teams ranking in the top 10 in Def. Finishing Drives and Def. Big Plays, yards and points will be tough to come by — the perfect recipe for an under.

Clemson’s offense strikes no fear in putting up points, as the passing game has been shaky and it just took a big blow in the backfield.

I also expect BC’s offense to take a step back as it goes up against better competition.

I grabbed the opener at 46.5 and would play this no less than 46. Expect a lot of stalled-out drives and empty trips past the 40.

Pick: Under 46.5 (Play to 46)

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