College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Boston College vs. Syracuse: Why the Over/Under Offers Value
Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images. Pictured: Garrett Shrader.
Boston College vs. Syracuse Odds
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -105 | 51.5 -110o /-110u | +200 |
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -115 | 51.5 -110o /-110u | -250 |
Syracuse is favored in an ACC game for the first time since 2019 when it welcomes Boston College on Saturday
The Orange lost their first three conference games, all of which were decided by three points. But Syracuse finally got over the hump last week thanks to a game-winning 45-yard touchdown pass from Garrett Shrader with 14 seconds remaining.
Dino Babers' squad is starting to finally receive some recognition from oddsmakers for the improvements they've made this season.
Boston College opened undefeated in its four-game nonconference schedule, which included a victory over Missouri. But things haven’t been pretty since for the Eagles, who have lost all three games since starting ACC play.
The offense has been struggling to effectively move the ball since starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec went down with injury.
Boston College hopes to stop the bleeding and find its first conference victory. It’s going to need a big-time performance from its defense for that to happen.
Boston College Eagles
Boston College Offense
The BC offense was full of smoke and mirrors the first month of the season, averaging 41 points per game. Those numbers came against some of the worst defenses in the country in Colgate, UMass, Temple, and Missouri.
The offensive woes of Boston College were quickly highlighted in the first three games of ACC play.
Redshirt senior quarterback Dennis Grosel replaced the injured Jurkovec. Grosel has averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt and completed 58% of his passes, which is in addition to his seven interceptions and six touchdown passes.
The ceiling is extremely low with Grosel under center, and teams are stacking the box to force him to beat them with his arm.
The Boston College offense has a rush rate of 57% (55th in the country) and has leaned on running back Patrick Garwo for offensive production. He’s averaged 6.1 yards per carry, while the rest of the roster has averaged 3.2 yards per rush.
Boston College Defense
For Boston College to string together some wins, the defense needs to play lights out. Even through the three-game losing streak, the defense has done its part, allowing an average of 26 points per game
The Eagles' focus is going to be slowing down Shrader, who has been effective both with his arm and legs. Boston College is up for the task as it ranks seventh in the nation in tackling, according to PFF, and ninth in coverage.
Last week, the Eagles limited Louisville's Malik Cunningham in the passing game, holding him to 107 passing yards and two interceptions. But he shredded them on the ground for 133 yards and three touchdowns.
Linebacker Isaiah Graham-Mobley leads the team in tackles and should be able to contain Shrader.
Syracuse Orange
Syracuse Offense
The Syracuse offense has improved leaps and bounds since last season. The Orange run the ball on 62% of their plays and rank 23rd in the nation in terms of rush rate. On those plays, they average 5.7 yards per carry and rank 20th in Success Rate.
Shrader has been strong since taking over the starting job six weeks ago from Tommy DeVito. Shrader has averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt but only completed 52% of his passes.
He's tossed seven touchdowns to three interceptions but has proven to be more effective with his legs. Shrader is second on the team in carries and averages 5.7 yards per rush along with 12 touchdowns.
Sean Tucker is the workhorse running back who has averaged 6.1 yards per carry and contributed 10 touchdowns.
Syracuse Defense
The Syracuse defense has allowed 25 points and just 325 yards per game.
The Orange have been strong against the run, allowing 3.5 yards per carry, which will be an important factor against a run-heavy Boston College offense. They’ve proven just as efficient against the pass, where they rank 47th in the nation in Passing Success Rate.
Sophomore linebacker Mikel Jones has been a monster for the Orange defense, leading the team with 74 total tackles, which ranks 10th in the country.
The front seven has proven to be dominant with 58 tackles for loss and 27 sacks on the season. It will have plenty of opportunities to increase those numbers in this matchup.
Boston College vs. Syracuse Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boston College and Syracuse match up statistically:
Boston College Offense vs. Syracuse Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 78 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 47 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 21 | 37 | |
| Big Play | 71 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 110 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Syracuse Offense vs. Boston College Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 52 | |
| Pass Success | 76 | 44 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 83 | 120 | |
| Big Play | 53 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 103 | |
| Finishing Drives | 39 | 25 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 7 | 6 |
| Coverage | 9 | 53 |
| Middle 8 | 74 | 84 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 46 | 119 |
| Plays per Minute | 73 | 52 |
| Rush Rate | 56.8% (55) | 62.% (23) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Boston College vs. Syracuse Betting Pick
Both teams own run-first offenses that will have the clock continuously moving. Both defenses have also proven strong against the run with each team ranking inside the top 10 in tackling.
Grosel has led the Eagles offense in 35 drives over the last three conference games. Only four of those series have resulted in touchdowns. Two also ended in field goals, while 29 finished with no points.
This game should see plenty of long, drawn-out drives that will often end in a kick. But that kick won't be an extra point very often.
Pick: Under 50.5 (Play to 50)
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