College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Iowa State vs. Texas Tech: Ride the Cyclones

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Iowa State vs. Texas Tech: Ride the Cyclones article feature image
Credit:

David K Purdy/Getty Images. pictured: Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy.

  • Texas Tech hosts Iowa State in a 3:30 p.m. ET duel on Big 12 Network.
  • The Cyclones blew out Texas in their last game, while the Red Raiders have lost two straight.
  • Mike McNamara breaks down the game and offers up his best bet.

Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Odds

Saturday, Nov. 13
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Iowa State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-10.5
-110
57
-110o / -110u
-435
Texas Tech Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+10.5
-110
57
-110o / -110u
+330
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

An interesting matchup takes place in Lubbock, Texas, on Saturday when Texas Tech faces Iowa State after just hiring a new head football coach.

Joey McGuire is the new man at the helm for the Red Raiders and had quite the animated press conference after getting officially announced as the program’s new coach.

Meanwhile, Iowa State hits the road after dismantling Texas at home a week ago. The Cyclones absolutely dominated the second half of that game, outscoring the Longhorns, 27-0 over the final two quarters.

Overall, 2021 has been a disappointment for the Cyclones, who had lofty expectations entering the season. That said, there’s still a path to the Big 12 championship game. They’ll need to be perfect the rest of the way, and that starts with getting a victory in Lubbock.

Can Texas Tech build off the momentum of the Maguire hire and earn a sixth win for bowl eligibility? Or will the Cyclones handle business in advance of the showdown with Oklahoma next week? Let’s find out.

Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State Finally Turning Things Around

One of the main goals of the 2021 season for Iowa State was to win a Big 12 Championship. The Cyclones came within one possession of doing so last year and returned 20+ starters from that team.

Early losses to Iowa and Baylor set Iowa State back on its heels and veteran quarterback Brock Purdy really struggled out of the gates.

Since the Baylor loss, the program has won four of its last five and the offensive production has gone up significantly. Running back Breece Hall is one of the hardest runners in the country, going for 120-plus yards against every Big 12 opponent aside from Oklahoma State.

Purdy has found his typical October form, and Xavier Hutchinson and Charlie Kolar continue to be two extremely reliable targets for him.

This offense might not have the most gaudy numbers, but it’s playing at an extremely high level right now. Texas Tech has a ton of issues on the defensive end, so this is a great matchup for the Cyclone offense to continue to stay hot.

The defense bounced back in a big way against Texas after a rough outing at West Virginia. Iowa State’s defense sacked Casey Thompson and Hudson Card five times, and forced two turnovers.

Matt Campbell will be the first to admit his defense needs to get better in the red zone, where the Cyclones currently rank 73rd in Defensive Finishing Drives.

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Texas Tech Red Raiders

Motivation Question Lingering with Texas Tech

You have to wonder what kind of fight this team will show the rest of the way.

Many were shocked when news broke of the school parting ways with Matt Wells in the middle of the season. The Red Raiders were 5-3 at the time and had plenty to play for as well.

In the first game after Wells’ departure, Tech got blown out by Oklahoma in Norman. The bye week came from there, and then this week, Maguire was announced as head coach.

Sonny Cumbie will continue to serve as Tech’s interim head coach for the rest of this season, but now that players know a brand new staff is being assembled, it will be interesting to see what kind of motivation they have over the final three games.

What we do know about the 2021 Red Raiders is they can put up points, and can’t really stop opposing offenses from scoring.

The Tech offense has been pretty efficient throughout the season. The unit ranks 35th in Line Yards, and 14th in generating big plays. The offensive line has been getting a consistent push up front, and this is an offense that can be explosive.

Oregon transfer Tyler Shough could be back this week, but if he can’t go Cumbie announced Donovan Smith will start under center. Shough was injured early in the year, and he would give a nice boost to this offense against a stingy Cyclone defense.

Defensively, it has been a nightmare for the Red Raiders throughout the season. The unit comes in ranked 108th in Defensive Rush Success, 84th in Havoc and 128th in Finishing Drives.

Going up against a balanced offensive attack from the Cyclones this week will be another difficult task for this short-handed defense to handle.


Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Texas Tech match up statistically:

Iowa State Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 68 108
Line Yards 69 84
Pass Success 33 63
Pass Blocking** 46 77
Big Play 27 66
Havoc 26 84
Finishing Drives 52 128
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas Tech Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 48 63
Line Yards 35 61
Pass Success 30 49
Pass Blocking** 64 42
Big Play 14 41
Havoc 49 41
Finishing Drives 17 73
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 37 107
Coverage 57 70
Middle 8 9 81
SP+ Special Teams 46 10
Plays per Minute 109 78
Rush Rate 52.% (86) 52.9% (82)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick

This line opened with Iowa State as a 10- to 11-point favorite and has hovered right around there throughout the week. However, I believe that number is too short.

Hall should be able to run all over a Tech defense that has proven throughout the year it can’t stop the run. Combine that with Purdy using the play-action game to find Kolar and Hutchinson, and I think Iowa State should be able to name their score.

On the other side, the Cyclone defense should be able to get some pressure on whoever starts at quarterback for the Red Raiders. Mike Rose anchors this unit in the middle of the field, and I think you’ll see an inspired defensive effort from a team hungry to finish out the year the right way.

Texas Tech fans might be feeling optimistic about the long-term future of this program following the hire of Maguire. However, as for the short term, I think it’s going to be ugly the rest of the season, particularly in this matchup.

I’m laying the 10.5 with the Cyclones and would play it all the way up to -13 as well.

Pick: Iowa State -10.5

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