Kansas State vs. Texas Tech College Football Odds & Picks: Bet on Red Raiders to Cover Against Familiar Big 12 Foe

Kansas State vs. Texas Tech College Football Odds & Picks: Bet on Red Raiders to Cover Against Familiar Big 12 Foe article feature image
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John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Kaylon Geiger.

  • The Kansas State Wildcats travel to windy Lubbock, Texas to face the Red Raiders of Texas Tech on Saturday, Oct. 23 at noon ET.
  • Familiar Big 12 conference foes, the Wildcats' and Red Raiders' point spread has hovered around a pick'em throughout the week.
  • What factor will split the proverbial hair to decide these teams' Big 12 supremacy? Check out our college football betting guide below in order to find out.

Kansas State vs. Texas Tech Odds

Saturday, Oct. 23
12 p.m. ET
FS1
Kansas State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1
-120
60.5
-110o / -110u
-110
Texas Tech Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1
+100
60.5
-110o / -110u
-110
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Kansas State Wildcats travel to Lubbock to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday. The Wildcats hold the edge in this all-time series, having won 12 of the 21 meetings, including five straight.

Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman’s squad is in the middle of a conference play gauntlet.

Coming into this one, the Wildcats have lost three consecutive games against the programs that are the class of the Big 12. This matchup against the Red Raiders is certainly not a break for this Kansas State team.

Texas Tech, meanwhile, has some clear motivation heading into this matchup.

As Kansas State is currently in its conference gauntlet, the Red Raiders have one of their own coming up. Ending the season with Oklahoma, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Baylor makes this matchup critical since they would become bowl eligible with a win. This is also by far their best chance to get there.

Can the Red Raiders earn the opportunity to go bowling?


Kansas State Wildcats

Will the Cats Run Wild?

The guy who makes everything go for this offense is sophomore running back Deuce Vaughn.

He is a true three-down back, making his presence felt through the air if the ground game is quiet. This may be Vaughn’s best opportunity to break out, though, as the Red Raiders’ defense is 114th in Rushing Success Allowed.

While Vaughn has been the spark of the offense, the real leader of this team has been senior quarterback Skylar Thompson.

Since returning from injury, Thompson has been solid. In the last two games, he has thrown for 526 yards, completed 68% of his passes and holds a five to one touchdown to interception ratio.

This Kansas State offense has shown to be explosive as they rank 15th nationally in Big Plays.

That is in large part due to Thompson’s ability to complete deep passes. He’s averaging 9.3 yards per completion and has completed passes that went for 56, 54 and 50 yards.


Coverage Issues Plaguing Wildcats

This Kansas State defense has held opponents to an average of 25 points per game, though that number has been surpassed in the last three games as the Wildcats have allowed over 30 points in each game.

Now, they face a potent Texas Tech offense that averages 37 points per game, and its strengths are a particular weakness for the Kansas State defense.

The Wildcats’ secondary has been the defense’s downfall. This unit ranks 120th in Passing Success, which stems from the alarming height of certain statistics.

They have allowed opposing teams to complete 75% of passes with an average of 8.3 yards per pass and over 11 yards per completion. Opponents have recognized this area of weakness by throwing the ball at a higher rate against this defense.

A balanced Red Raiders offense can easily switch to a pass-heavy scheme.

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Texas Tech Red Raiders

Expect an Air Raid From the Red Raiders

Senior Henry Colombi has seized his opportunity by excelling as the starting quarterback over the last four games, completing 66% of his passes while throwing for nine yards per completion. Colombi is in an excellent matchup against a Wildcats’ secondary that should only amplify his already great numbers.

The balanced attack of the Texas Tech offense could very well be highlighted by the success of the running game. SaRodorick Thompson has been a key factor in each of the Red Raiders’ last two games, during which he’s averaging over 6.5 yards per carry.

This offense receives a huge boost with Tahj Brooks expected to be back this week. Brooks put up staggering performances in the first three games of the season with 285 rushing yards and more than eight yards per carry with four touchdowns.


Can Texas Tech Stuff the Run This Time?

The Red Raiders’ rushing defense has been dreadful in their two losses. Texas Tech allowed 394 yards on the ground to TCU and 336 yards to Texas.

This matchup against Kansas State points to another big rushing day for the Wildcats, as the Texas Tech defense will face a stud running back and a more physical offensive line.

The ability to stop the run has been the determining factor in each of the Red Raiders games and will certainly be the key here.


Kansas State vs. Texas Tech Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and Texas Tech match up statistically:

Kansas State Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 42 114
Line Yards 24 93
Pass Success 82 55
Pass Blocking** 77 69
Big Play 15 42
Havoc 103 66
Finishing Drives 59 127
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas Tech Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 38 43
Line Yards 30 23
Pass Success 25 120
Pass Blocking** 62 46
Big Play 53 87
Havoc 32 89
Finishing Drives 17 38
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 93 108
Coverage 94 68
Middle 8 99 80
SP+ Special Teams 51 7
Plays per Minute 119 63
Rush Rate 59.8% (34) 51.9% (83)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.

This matchup is dependent on which defense shows improvement and avoids being exposed. Each team will be able to move the ball on each other, so the separating factor here may be the explosiveness of each offense.

In that case, the Wildcats hold a small edge, but the Red Raiders may strike quicker through the air.

It is no wonder that this line is essentially a pick ’em because there is little to no separation between these two teams.


Kansas State vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick

In a toss-up type game, external factors play a bigger role in determining a side.

Texas Tech is in need of a win to keep its season alive and it is at home. Kansas State has been battered and has even tougher conference opponents on tap.

Take the Red Raiders as they’ll be going bowling this season.

Pick: Texas Tech PK (Play to -2.5)

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