Louisiana Tech vs. Clemson Odds, Picks: Why Tigers Won’t Cover Massive Number
Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: DJ Uiagalelei (Clemson)
- Clemson plays host to Louisiana Tech as part of college football's Week 3 slate.
- The Tigers are extremely large favorites after pummeling both Georgia Tech and Forman in their first two games.
- Can they do it again in this one? Doug Ziefel has the scoop.
Louisiana Tech vs. Clemson Odds
Dabo Swinney and the No. 5 Clemson Tigers are set to host the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.
This will be just the fourth meeting between these programs and the first since 2006. It should come as no surprise that Clemson has won each meeting to this point, and has done so in dominant fashion.
However, this meeting may represent the largest the gap ever been between these two clubs. While that is the reasoning behind the point spread, the Tigers have not proven to be an utterly dominant team thus far.
So, where does the value lie in this matchup? Let's dive in and find out.
The Bulldogs' offense is a full-blown Air Led led by senior quarterback Parker McNeil. He took over the job last week after initially losing the spring competition to Matthew Downing. However, Downing's poor showing in the season opener led to a short leash that was very quickly yanked.
McNeil took his opportunity and ran with it against Stephen F. Austin. While he only went 11-for-23, he connected on multiple long passes and threw for three touchdowns in a 52-17 victory.
While his completion percentage may not be inspiring, the Tigers are much more susceptible through the air than against the rush.
Clemson's opponents have thrown the ball nearly 56% of the time through two games, which is still far less than the Bulldogs' pass rate of 69%. However, the numerous pass plays against the Tigers give us a solid sample size, even through two games.
Thus far, Clemson ranks 81st in completion percentage allowed and 55th in Passing Success Rate Allowed. Those are not the types of numbers you would expect from a defense that has only allowed 22 points this season.
It will be a war of attrition for the Bulldogs, but with their level of passing volume, they are bound to have some success.
Despite putting up 76 points in its first two games, this offense has yet to look overly impressive, and is not all that different from the abysmal group we saw last season.
The Tigers have deployed a balanced offensive attack, but haven't had much success on the ground. Clemson comes into this matchup averaging just three yards per rush, which is good for 103rd in the country.
Furthermore, the Tigers rank 51st in Rushing Success Rate. Though they've struggled thus far, we should see them lean on the rushing attack in this one, as that's where Will Shipley is likely to find success.
The Bulldogs' defense has been decimated on the ground. The unit has allowed its opponents to rush for an average of 6.5 yards per carry, which ranks 124th in the nation.
The Bulldogs also are going to be severely outmatched in the trenches, as they come into this contest 104th in Defensive Line Yards.
Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has gotten off to a much better start than last season, as he's thrown for 441 yards and completed 68% of his passes.
However, he may be in for a surprising challenge, as the Bulldogs rank 41st in Passing Success Rate Allowed and may be able to pressure him — the Clemson offensive line ranks just 85th in pass blocking.
Louisiana Tech vs. Clemson Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisiana Tech and Clemson match up statistically:
Louisiana Tech Offense vs. Clemson Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Clemson Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||98||46|
|Seconds per Play||26.2 (63)||24.5 (35)|
|Rush Rate||46.4% (95)||49.6% (77)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Louisiana Tech vs. Clemson Betting Pick
This is a massive mismatch on paper and these teams have contrasting offensive styles.
Each team will look to exploit the weaknesses of the opposing defense, and although the Tigers are expected to have much more offensive success, their rushing attack will generate points and take a lot of time off the clock.
As for the Bulldogs, their Air Raid will keep the Tigers' secondary on its toes.
Louisiana Tech is bound to find some success if it can continue to throw at such a high rate — especially late in the ball game. That leaves the backdoor wide open in the matchup because I find it hard to believe the Bulldogs will be shut out.
With the spread approaching five touchdowns, I'm taking the points and making Clemson prove it is an elite team.