Oregon State vs. Stanford Odds & Picks: Betting Value on This Pac-12 Underdog
Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images. Pictured: David Shaw (Stanford)
Oregon State vs. Stanford Odds
|Oregon State Odds|
-106o / -114u
-106o / -114u
There aren't many winless teams against the spread so far this season, but Stanford is among the four that have failed to cash for investors.
There are plenty of factors to consider when assessing why the Cardinal have beaten only Colgate while failing to be accurately projected by oddsmakers.
Stanford is dead last in Turnover Margin, being one of only four teams to not gain a fumble this season. Trench play has been a consistent issue in the post-Andrew Luck quarterback years, a shocking factor considering the recent recruiting history in the top half of the Pac-12.
Oregon State is another disappointing team in the conference after two consecutive losses to USC and Utah. The Beavers combined for a net -8 in Turnover Margin against the Trojans and Utes. Only two teams have thrown more interceptions than Oregon State.
Despite the ugliness through September, both teams can still make a bowl with improved ball security.
After a treacherous path in the turnover department, a victory on The Farm will go a long way for either team in reaching the postseason.
Quarterback Chance Nolan exited the Utah game with a neck injury, leaving backup Ben Gulbranson to assume duties under center.
Nolan had two interceptions in just seven passing attempts before Gulbranson finished the game with another two interceptions in 21 passing attempts.
The starting quarterback decision against Stanford will come closer to game time, but the lack of separation of the targets has played a critical role in the turnovers.
Tonight on Gamenight, @CoachKoby breaks down Chance Nolan's misses in Oregon State's 42-16 loss to Utah.
Play one: pic.twitter.com/C8K6KBdlfP
— Cameron Derby (@CamDerbyTV) October 2, 2022
Nolan has seen an increase in Drop Rate of 9.7% to 15.4% despite an uptick in his Big Time Throw percentage.
The third-year quarterback entered the USC game with just two Turnover Worthy Plays against Boise State, Fresno State and Montana State, but Utah and USC's defenses forced five Turnover Worthy Plays, as both teams got pressure with minimal blitz.
The good news for head coach Jonathan Smith is that this is still a run-first team that is 13th in Standard Downs Explosiveness.
Coordinator Trent Bray got the defense to show up for USC, recording 11 quarterback hurries and six tackles for loss against Caleb Williams and a stable of talented running backs.
While the Havoc numbers stayed within the top-50 nationally, that same defense did not show up against Utah.
Quarterback Cameron Rising did not have a single pressure, as the Beavers posted only four tackles for loss.
Corner Alex Austin was specifically singled out, as he was targeted six times by Rising while allowing 73 yards and a score to the Utah offense.
The mistakes from Stanford have been inexplicable considering quarterback Tanner McKee is piecing together a fantastic season. The third-year quarterback has posted just two Turnover Worthy Plays in 121 passing attempts while connecting on eight touchdowns so far this season.
While McKee is throwing the ball with success, the offensive line has failed to protect him with a Sack-to-Pressure Ratio booming from 27% to 40% since last season.
Stanford is 129th in Havoc Allowed, a stat that measures tackles for loss allowed along with interceptions and fumbles. The Cardinal have 11 fumbles and have allowed 33 tackles for loss — both outside the top 100.
The bad news is offensive drives are ending abruptly, but the good news is the result of the drives without turnovers. Stanford is fourth in offensive Finishing Drives, averaging 5.4 points on 18 drives across the opponent 40-yard line.
— 𝗙𝗢𝗟𝗟𝗢𝗪 @𝗙𝗧𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗱𝟳 (@FTBeard7) October 2, 2022
Because turnovers have played a large role in Stanford games, the offense has the worst starting field position in college football.
The Cardinal defense has not fared much better, ranking 118th in starting field position. Although the tackling has been decent, Stanford is dead last defensively in Line Yards, as opponents are moving the ball freely on rushing attempts.
Stanford has the worst defense in the nation in terms of stopping the run at or behind the line of scrimmage, a key variable in what assisted Oregon, USC and Washington to score at least 40 points.
Oregon State vs. Stanford Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon State and Stanford match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs. Stanford Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Stanford Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||111||17|
|Seconds per Play||28.8 (110)||25.7 (43)|
|Rush Rate||57.0% (45)||52.6% (76)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Oregon State vs. Stanford Betting Pick
Two items that are near impossible to handicap are injuries and turnovers. Advanced analytics around Havoc do a great job of showing characteristics that lead to turnovers, but fumbles rarely turn out to be a coin flip in recovery.
These teams have a combined 23 turnovers lost, which is an indication that interceptions and loose balls are coming to Stanford Stadium.
The question is whether each team chooses to lean heavily into what makes the offense successful.
Oregon State has thrown eight interceptions, but is a ground-first team with a number of running backs that light up opposing defenses.
The Beavers have a potent ground attack with the tandem of Deshaun Fenwick and Damien Martinez, but the emergence of Jamious Griffin in the last two games against Utah and USC is noticeable.
Oregon State has a single fumble lost this season in 173 rushing attempts, diminishing the decision facing head coach Smith in choosing Nolan or Gulbranson to start at quarterback.
Conversely, Stanford has had the most success through the air. Four interceptions are in the books, with only two of those being mistakes belonging to McKee.
Stanford has allowed its starting quarterback to be sacked 16 times this season, an issue that will not be a present against an Oregon State defense that is 116th in Pass Rush.
Stanford has eight fumbles lost, a variable that has no correlation to the execution of McKee in the pocket.
The Action Network projects the Pac-12 scrum at Oregon State -5.5, showing that value lies on Stanford at a touchdown or better.
The Cardinal also have a clear advantage in SP+ Special Teams.
No offense has suffered more from a Havoc Allowed perspective than Stanford, as any kind of improvement gets a home team ticket to the window.