College Football Week 4 Betting Guide | Notre Dame vs North Carolina Odds, Picks, Predictions
Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Drake Maye (North Carolina)
Notre Dame vs North Carolina Odds
These two teams have gone in opposite directions since their highly-anticipated game last season.
UNC has started 3-0 in 2022, leaning on its high-powered offense to bail out the defense, which has kept the opposition in games.
Notre Dame has started this season in embarrassing fashion under new head coach Marcus Freeman, going 1-2 with a loss to Marshall and a near defeat to California.
Does this matchup poise as a get-right game for the Fighting Irish? Or will the Tar Heels exact their revenge from last season? Let's find out.
If I had to sum up Notre Dame's season so far, I would use the word disappointing. Even disappointment is an understatement so far after almost dropping a third game against California last week.
The offense has been abysmal and likely won't get better under backup quarterback Drew Pyne anytime soon. The conservative Pyne finished his lone start with 150 yards and only three throws over 15 yards.
The Irish's lack of offensive production has resulted in below-average offensive metrics in every category, including Rush Success Rate (97th), Pass Success Rate (120th) and Finishing Drives (100th).
Lucky for the Irish, this may serve as a get-right game for the offense against UNC's horrific defense. While the Tar Heels' defensive line could be an issue for Pyne, he should find success in the secondary.
The Irish's defense has fared far better than the offense to this point in the season. The unit's Pass Success Rate has been good, but it has been torched on the ground.
If the Irish want any chance of winning, they will need to limit as many UNC drives as possible to give their stagnant offense a chance to keep them in the game.
UNC may be 3-0, but it isn't without flaws. The Heels narrowly won their last two games (a combined total of nine points) against Appalachian State and Georgia State.
This is due to their lack of defense, once again one of the worst units in football. While the pressure from the defensive line has been great, per Pass Blocking and Line Yards metrics, the rest of the unit has been brutally bad.
The Heels' near dead-last rankings in Defensive Success Rate and Havoc have been on display against every team they've faced this season. While tackling is not an issue, limiting Standard Downs Success Rate and getting opposing offenses off the field has been.
Notre Dame's offense doesn't pose much of a threat, but any offense can look great against this poor defense. The pressure generated from the defensive line will be more important than ever, as it tries to take advantage of Pyne, who hasn't taken any chances under center other than basic check-downs.
Should that happen, UNC will be in great shape to get its revenge, as the offense has once again proven to be elite.
Drake Maye has proven me wrong so far this season, throwing for 11 touchdowns on 930 yards, while leading this team to a near top-of-the-nation Pass Success Rate ranking.
Drake Maye is ballin' ♨️
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) September 20, 2022
Notre Dame vs North Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Notre Dame and North Carolina match up statistically:
Notre Dame Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
North Carolina Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||5||1|
|Seconds per Play||28.6 (106)||24.1 (26)|
|Rush Rate||57.8% (42)||54.8% (60)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina Pick
I initially bet under 60 at open, but that number is long gone, as it has dropped to 56.
Instead, I will focus on the spread, as this matchup poses as a real chance for the Tar Heels to get their revenge.
The offense is once again elite and more than capable of putting up points up on Notre Dame. The Irish have serious issues, and I'm not sure they are ones that can be solved quickly.
The offense is horrific, and Pyne does not bring any explosiveness to the table to give the unit a kick start. Stagnant and conservative, UNC's defense should fare more successful than it has against its previous competition.
The Heels' pass rush has a serious advantage and is an angle worth monitoring that will decide this game.
I'm taking the Heels -1.5 in hopes that the Notre Dame offense will simply not be able to keep pace with UNC's scoring. Take the Heels at no greater than -2.5 with a live under at anything higher than 60.