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Texas Tech vs. Kansas State Odds, Picks: Do Wildcats Fall Back to Earth in Week 5?

Texas Tech vs. Kansas State Odds, Picks: Do Wildcats Fall Back to Earth in Week 5? article feature image

Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Hadley Panzer & Deuce Vaughn (Kansas State)

  • After stunning Oklahoma last week, Kansas State returns to action vs. Texas Tech as part of college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.
  • The Red Raiders pulled off their own form of an upset in their Big 12 opener, as they topped the Texas Longhorns.
  • How will this game turn out from a betting perspective? Doug Ziefel dives in below.

Texas Tech vs. Kansas State Odds

Saturday, Oct. 1
12 p.m. ET
Texas Tech Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-105o / -115u
Kansas State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-105o / -115u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Both of these teams got off to 1-0 starts in conference play as they each pulled off massive upsets.

The Red Raiders upset the Texas Longhorns in overtime and escaped with a 37-34 victory.

Kansas State came out and took control of the game against the sixth-ranked Oklahoma Sooners. The Wildcats led wire-to-wire as double-digit underdogs and have earned themselves a spot in the top 25.

However, with Big 12 play in full swing, someone’s perfect conference record has got to go.

So, how do we play this matchup between surging conference foes? Let’s take a closer look to find out.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Red Raiders’ offense was firing on all cylinders against the Longhorns, which is surprising when you consider that same Longhorns defense stifled the Crimson Tide earlier this season.

Texas Tech will live and die by the play of sophomore quarterback Donovan Smith, who has made strides as a passer from last season. He’s put together solid performances in three of his four starts and needs to be given the benefit of the doubt for his performance against a stout NC State unit.

It doesn’t stop there with Smith, as he is extremely athletic and very mobile. He’s currently third on the team in rushing and is a problem around the goal line — he’s accounted for three of the team’s eight rushing touchdowns.

However, he and the Red Raiders’ running back tandem could be in for a long day against this Kansas State front.

The Wildcats have been excellent defensively and will have a significant edge in the trench. Kansas State outranks Texas Tech by 48 in Line Yards when on defense.

With the run game shut down, it will be all on the arm of Smith.

But he may not have much success through the air either. The Wildcats’ secondary has been as tremendous, as they enter ranked 16th in Passing Success Rate and 19th in PFF Coverage.

Kansas State Wildcats

On the other side of the ball, Kansas State’s offense is a stark contrast to the Red Raiders’ scheme.

The Wildcats have been one of the best rushing offenses in the nation behind star running back Deuce Vaughn and quarterback Adrian Martinez. The duo has already combined for 766 yards on 5.2 yards per carry while scoring nine touchdowns on the season.

While you may look at the Red Raiders’ defensive metrics and think the Wildcats have met their match, you might want to look a bit closer.

Texas Tech may have won last week, but that was the first time it faced an elite running back in Bijan Robinson. The Red Raiders could not slow him down, as he averaged 6.3 yards per carry and scored twice.

The Red Raiders are in for an even more challenging test, as the Wildcats are seventh in Rushing Success Rate and 19th in Line Yards. We saw how they just dominated the trenches against Oklahoma, and they have the potential to do the same here.

This could also be the matchup where we see Martinez have success throwing the ball, especially if Tech is keyed in on stopping the run. The Red Raiders are 93rd in Coverage Grade and are 75th in yards per pass allowed.

Don’t be surprised if the play-action pass gives the Wildcats some explosive results.

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Texas Tech vs. Kansas State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and Kansas State match up statistically:

Texas Tech Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
Rush Success 52 50
Line Yards 101 53
Pass Success 49 16
Pass Blocking** 101 82
Havoc 106 52
Finishing Drives 76 15
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Kansas State Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
Rush Success 7 14
Line Yards 19 9
Pass Success 118 21
Pass Blocking** 46 23
Havoc 27 54
Finishing Drives 30 44
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 14 67
PFF Coverage 93 19
SP+ Special Teams 76 77
Seconds per Play 21.4 (8) 27.8 (95)
Rush Rate 42.4% (122) 63.3% (13)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Texas Tech vs. Kansas State Betting Pick

The market came in and hammered the Wildcats when lines opened for this game.

For full disclosure, I grabbed them at seven as well, but they still have value up to eight.

This will be a game where Kansas State’s defense takes over. Smith is not up to the task quite yet for Texas Tech, and his offensive line won’t help him one bit.

I see the Wildcats wearing down the Red Raiders’ defense throughout this game and pulling away in the second half.

Back the Wildcats to win by two scores.

Pick: Kansas State -7 (Play to -8)

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