SMU vs. Memphis Betting Odds, Predictions: Our Top Pick for Offense-Filled Matchup

SMU vs. Memphis Betting Odds, Predictions: Our Top Pick for Offense-Filled Matchup article feature image
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SMU vs. Memphis Odds

SMU Odds -4.5
Memphis Odds +4.5
Moneyline -200 / +165
Over/Under 70.5
Time Saturday, Noon ET
TV ESPNU
Odds as of Saturday and via BetMGM

The SMU Mustangs look to regroup after a late loss to Houston last week as it travels to Tennessee to face the Memphis Tigers.

The Mustangs started preparing for overtime after kicking the game-tying field against the Cougars before this happened:

HOUSTON WITH A GAME-WINNING KICK RETURN TD 🤯 pic.twitter.com/6yGPR4vgXz

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 31, 2021

The loss paves the way for Houston to the AAC Championship game as the Cougars have a favorable schedule moving forward. SMU remains ranked, but it will take some time for it to get over that loss.

To make matters worse, reports have been swindling about Mustangs head coach Sonny Dykes having his choice between offers from Texas Tech and TCU.

Bowl eligibility, which was once a certainty, is now becoming a doubt for the Tigers, who have lost three of their last four games.

Quarterback Seth Henigan is day-to-day with a shoulder injury, but if he suits up, this matchup will include two of the best air attacks in the country.


Southern Methodist Mustangs

SMU Offense

The SMU offense sits at fifth in the nation against FBS competition, averaging 40 points per game. The group has been one of the most electric in the country behind the arm of Tanner Mordecai.

Mordecai has thrown 32 touchdowns and only eight interceptions while averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt. He’s completed 70% of his passes and is averaging nearly 330 passing yards per game. Mordecai has led this passing attack to the No. 1 ranking in Success Rate.

He’s hit 10 separate targets for touchdowns this season, along with eight different receivers, who are averaging over 10 yards per reception.

The offense plays at the 23rd fastest pace in terms of Plays Per Minute, averaging 24 seconds per play and 74 plays per game. The group ranks 10th in Explosive Plays and should find plenty of success against Memphis’ lackluster defense.


SMU Defense

The Mustangs’ defense has allowed 30 points per game over the last six contests against quality FBS opponents.

They’ve proven to be strong against the run, allowing 3.7 yards per carry and ranking 12th in the nation in Success Rate.

The unit has been horrid against the pass, where it has allowed 9.0 yards per attempt and 280 passing yards per game. In the last two weeks, SMU has allowed 650 passing yards and seven touchdowns through the air.

According to PFF, the group sits outside the top 120 in terms of pass coverage and tackling

The Mustangs have been able to get after the quarterback, ranking 22nd in Pass Rush. They have garnered 16 sacks and 44 tackles for loss this season.

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Memphis Tigers

Memphis Offense

Henigan has been a monster for the Tigers this season. He’s tossed 16 touchdowns and four interceptions, while averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Henigan is averaging over 300 yards through the air and completing 61% of his passes.

He missed last week’s game against UCF and backup Peter Parrish looked overwhelmed after being thrown into his first start. He averaged 4.5 yards per pass attempt on his 48 throws, including three interceptions.

He did bring another element to the Tigers’ offense with his mobility, carrying the ball 22 times for 60 yards.

Memphis needs to feed Calvin Austin III, who is the playmaker on the outside for this offense. He’s averaging 113 receiving yards per game and has accounted for 10 touchdowns on the season.


Memphis Defense

The Memphis defense has held only two opponents — Navy and Nicholls — below 20 points this season.

The unit looked solid against a banged-up UCF offense last week, holding the group to just 80 yards passing. But Memphis couldn’t stop the rushing attack, allowing 200 yards for the third time in five games.

The Tigers face a high-powered SMU offense on Saturday that has found 32 touchdowns and 65% of its offensive production through the air. Memphis ranks eighth in Passing Success Rate this season and has allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempt on the season.

Memphis will be at a massive disadvantage in terms of Havoc, where the Tigers rank 115th in the nation while the SMU offense comes in at 18th.


SMU vs. Memphis Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and Memphis match up statistically:

SMU Offense vs. Memphis Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 74 64
Line Yards 60 89
Pass Success 1 88
Pass Blocking** 34 92
Big Play 10 58
Havoc 18 115
Finishing Drives 32 92
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Memphis Offense vs. SMU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 44 12
Line Yards 54 51
Pass Success 32 79
Pass Blocking** 74 22
Big Play 95 96
Havoc 53 82
Finishing Drives 81 91
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 123 26
Coverage 127 45
Middle 8 3 64
SP+ Special Teams 109 75
Plays per Minute 23 9
Rush Rate 48.4% (108) 51.5% (89)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


SMU vs. Memphis Betting Pick

These two teams have followed a similar blueprint: play fast and score in a blur. Each offense will be able to expose crucial mismatches against the opposing defense.

Memphis will find success through the air with either quarterback, as the SMU defense has allowed 9.0 yards per pass attempt (116th nationally). The SMU defense ranks 123rd in tackling, according to PFF, and 127th in Pass Coverage.

Most importantly, these two teams want to play at a blistering pace, with SMU ranking 23rd and Memphis ranking ninth nationally in Plays per Minute. The two teams rank 108th and 89th in terms of Rush Rate.

We will see two of the more pass-heavy offenses both finding success.

Pick: Over 70 (Play to 72.5)

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