Texas vs Baylor Odds, Picks: Saturday College Football Betting Preview

Texas vs Baylor Odds, Picks: Saturday College Football Betting Preview article feature image
Credit:

Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: Bijan Robinson.

  • The Texas Longhorns and Baylor Bears play in Saturday in-state Big 12 action.
  • The Bears enter as small favorites, but are the Longhorns the more valuable bet?
  • Doug Ziefel breaks it down below and explains why the Longhorns might even be worth a bet on the moneyline.

Texas vs. Baylor Odds

Saturday, Oct. 30
12 p.m. ET
ABC
Texas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
-110
61.5
-110o / -110u
+110
Baylor Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-110
61.5
-110o / -110u
-130
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Two interstate foes clash as the Texas Longhorns take on the Baylor Bears. Texas has dominated this series, owning a 77-27-5 heading into this year’s matchup.

The Longhorns are coming off a much-needed bye week, as prior to it, they dropped two straight games against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Head coach Steve Sarkisian addressed the two-game skid by identifying an issue he sees in his latest postgame presser:

“This is two weeks in a row where we’re just trying to hold as opposed to attacking… I think that we do that, just hoping the other team might make a mistake. “

We’ll see this week if Sarkisian can have his guys maintain their energy throughout the game.

The Bears have been a team on the rise as they enter this matchup off a big victory over an explosive BYU team. They had their offense firing on all cylinders against the Cougars and will look to keep rolling this week.

Baylor enters this matchup as favorites, but should it be?


Texas Longhorns

Longhorns Have a Bell Cow

The Texas offense runs the ball over 60% of the time, and a great deal of those carries have gone to sophomore Bijan Robinson. The Longhorn running back has had a fantastic season that has vaulted him into the Heisman conversation.

He is currently third in the nation in rushing with 924 yards, picking them up at a 6.6 per clip pace. Robinson has been a major factor in the Longhorns’ high-scoring offense, as he has reached pay dirt 10 times.

When the ball is not in Robinson’s hands it’s been sailing through the air after quarterback Casey Thompson lets it go. Thompson has led an explosive passing attack, as his 9.3 average yards per pass is good for 14th in the country.

Thompson and Robinson have made the Longhorns one of the top offenses in the FBS. Texas ranks fifth in points per game, fourth in points per play, and 10th in yards per play.

This unit will be the toughest test to date for Baylor’s defense.

Texas Defense Losing War of Attrition

In both of the Longhorns’ most recent losses, they have held the lead entering the fourth quarter. In those fourth quarters, they have been outscored, 41- 7.

The defense has been prone to weakening as the game goes on, and its numbers show just that — 101st in yards per play, 112th in opponent yards per rush, and 121st in opponent completion percentage.

If the Longhorns want to get back on track, they’ll need to start strong and finish strong.

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Baylor Bears

Bears Getting it Done on the Ground

Much like the Longhorns, Baylor has a potent rushing attack of its own, but it may be even better.

The Bears’ rushing attack has been dominant this season, as Abram Smith has thrived behind a great offensive line. The offensive line putting up rankings of third in Line Yards and fourth in pass blocking is the key to the offense’s success.

Smith has rushed for 7.5 yards per carry, and the great pass blocking has allowed quarterback Gerry Bohanon to stretch the field.

Bohanon has thrown for 567 yards over the last two games while maintaining an incredible touchdown-to-interception ratio. Bohanon has thrown only one interception on the season.

Bears Defense Solid All-Around

This Baylor defensive unit comes into this matchup having done a great job limiting opposing offenses.

The Bears defense does benefit greatly from the offense’s slow and grinding style, but they are efficient when on the field. They have held opponents to just over 20 points per game.

That’s due in part to two other key statistics:

  1. Baylor is 32nd in opponent yards per play.
  2. It also ranks 20th in opponent third-down conversion percentage.

Getting off the field on third down is vital against Texas, as the Longhorn offense ranks 14th in that area.


Texas vs. Baylor Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Baylor match up statistically:

Texas Offense vs. Baylor Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 49 34
Line Yards 30 82
Pass Success 57 43
Pass Blocking** 92 59
Big Play 42 54
Havoc 30 26
Finishing Drives 17 72
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Baylor Offense vs. Texas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 3 74
Line Yards 3 64
Pass Success 55 103
Pass Blocking** 4 89
Big Play 17 92
Havoc 38 108
Finishing Drives 17 106
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 76 81
Coverage 64 58
Middle 8 12 66
SP+ Special Teams 9 25
Plays per Minute 76 97
Rush Rate 62.2% (21) 60.4% (30)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Texas vs. Baylor Betting Pick

The Bears may be at home and have played to a level where they appear to be the more complete team in this matchup. But the Longhorns offense is a class above any team Baylor has faced.

Sark also has an extra week to get his defense prepared for the rushing attack, so specific adjustments should show.

Our Action Network PRO Projections have the Longhorns as a 2.3-point favorite. There is tremendous value on Texas as a field-goal underdog.

The Longhorns are worth a moneyline sprinkle along with the spread.

Pick: Texas +3 | Texas ML

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