Tulsa vs. Cincinnati Betting Odds & Picks: How to Play This Over/Under (Saturday, November 6)

Tulsa vs. Cincinnati Betting Odds & Picks: How to Play This Over/Under (Saturday, November 6) article feature image
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  • The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in AAC action on Saturday.
  • The Bearcats are looking to gain some respect from the College Football Playoff committee after being ranked No. 6 by the group.
  • Check out Doug Ziefel's full betting breakdown for Saturday's game below.

Tulsa vs. Cincinnati Odds

Saturday, Nov. 6
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Tulsa Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+22.5
-105
56
-110o / -110u
+1000
Cincinnati Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-22.5
-115
56
-110o / -110u
-2000
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

After two lackluster victories, the undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats were slighted in the first College Football Playoff rankings. Now, they get to host the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in hopes of making a statement to impress the committee.

This Tulsa team enters the matchup after a loss to Navy, a triple-option team that Cincinnati also struggled against.

The Golden Hurricane have shown the ability to score and cannot be taken lightly. But can they score against the daunted Bearcats defense?


Tulsa Golden Hurricane

When Tulsa Has the Ball

The Golden Hurricane establish a balanced offense by getting the ball in the hands of two men, Shamari Brooks and Davis Brin.

Brooks has been a workhorse and getting him going early has led to victories. He has had multiple big performances, posting rushing totals of 145, 126 and 155 yards. If there is one way to attack the Cincinnati defense, it’s on the ground. Look for Brooks to play a large role in the game plan.

Junior quarterback Brin has been the definition of streaky this season. His completion percentage sits a shade below 58 percent and holds an 11:11 touchdown to interception ratio.

Most of those 11 touchdowns have come on long passes, including this one from last week’s game:

Davis Brin ➡️ JuanCarlos Santana for 42 yards!! Watch the block by the RB too! 🔥🔥

(They called a TD on the field then ruled he was down at the 1) pic.twitter.com/ZIwh1hALNG

— ✯✯✯✯✯ (@FTBVids_YT) October 30, 2021

If Brooks can establish the run game, it will open up the deep shots that Brin loves to take.

While that classic game plan may look good on paper, executing it will be a whole different story.

This Cincinnati defense, particularly their secondary, has been among the best in the nation. They allow the second-least points per game and the fourth-fewest yards per play.

Brin’s low completion percentage will only drop in this matchup, as the Bearcats have the lowest completion percentage allowed at 49.5 percent.

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Cincinnati Bearcats

When Cincinnati has the Ball

Desmond Ridder entered his senior season as a dark horse Heisman candidate. He was living up to it early on, but a string of middling performances has halted that dream.

Overall, Ridder’s numbers are still solid as an 18:4 touchdown to interception ratio and 70.2 QBR is nothing to diminish. However, after putting up back-to-back 50-point performances, the offense has slowed at a time where they can ill afford to.

Even though his team won against Navy and UCF, Ridder was not much of a factor, as he only combined for 316 yards. He also had a significant drop in yards per completion to an average of six when he normally averages over eight per completion.

This Tulsa defense is stingier than many might assume. They rank 33rd in opponent completion percentage and are 26th in pass rush.

For what can be said about the ups and downs of Ridder, the same cannot be said about the work of running back Jerome Ford. He is having a phenomenal junior season, as he has rushed for 864 yards at 6.4 per attempt.

Ford has also racked up a staggering 14 touchdowns. He has proven that he can put the team on his back, as he did against UCF where he ran for 189 yards and scored four times in just the first half!

Ford may be asked to shoulder the load once again, as the Golden Hurricane have not put up much resistance against the run this season. Tulsa ranks 85th in opponent yards per rush.


Tulsa vs. Cincinnati Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulsa and Cincinnati match up statistically:

Tulsa Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 118 11
Line Yards 125 25
Pass Success 97 13
Pass Blocking** 78 2
Big Play 39 9
Havoc 86 14
Finishing Drives 99 5
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Cincinnati Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 17 59
Line Yards 38 56
Pass Success 61 77
Pass Blocking** 80 26
Big Play 53 64
Havoc 20 68
Finishing Drives 19 87
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 18 7
Coverage 95 4
Middle 8 21 10
SP+ Special Teams 45 82
Plays per Minute 40 61
Rush Rate 54.1% (72) 53.3% (79)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Tulsa vs. Cincinnati Betting Pick

This is a game where we will see Cincinnati as motivated. They finally know where they stand in terms of reaching the College Football Playoff and with no big challenges left on their schedule, they’ll have to impress.

Look for Ford to have another big day on the ground and make multiple house calls. Tulsa is also a candidate to fire back quickly if they get down. All of this points to the over for me.

Pick: Over 54

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