College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Washington vs. Oregon State: Beavers to Get Revenge?

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Washington vs. Oregon State: Beavers to Get Revenge? article feature image
Credit:

Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Chance Nolan.

  • Oregon State welcomes Washington to Corvallis in a battle between two Pac-12 teams on winning streaks.
  • The Beavers are just a 2-point home favorite despite beating USC last week by 18 on the road.
  • Roberto Arguello previews the college football Week 5 game and offers his best bet.

Washington vs. Oregon State Odds

Washington Odds +2 (-110)
Oregon State Odds -2 (-110)
Moneyline +105 / -125
Over/Under 58 (+100 / -120)
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV Pac-12 Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Washington Huskies travel to Corvallis to face the Oregon State Beavers in a battle between two Pac-12 North teams heading in different directions.

This is also a revenge game for the Beavers after a questionable call on fourth-and-one in the red zone potentially cost them a touchdown in last year’s 27-21 loss in Seattle.

The #Pac12Refs strike again, as they give Oregon St an all-time bad spot on a 4th & inches from the 5 yard-line, resulting in a turnover on downs. #OSUvsUW pic.twitter.com/xLZExDkhDg

— Bad Sports Refs (@BadSportsRefs) November 15, 2020

Coming into the season, the Huskies were projected to finish second in the North as they were listed at +140 to win the division. Oregon was favored to win the division at -120, but no other team had odds shorter than +1600.

Oregon State started the season at +1800 and was projected to finish fourth in the North, but with a win as home favorites on Saturday in Pac-12 After Dark, the Beavers would easily become the biggest threat to Oregon in the North.

The Beavers are coming off of a 45-27 win over USC, the program’s first win at the Coliseum since 1960.

Starting quarterback Chance Nolan impressed in his third consecutive start and many believe that if he had started the season opener against Purdue instead of Sam Noyer, the Beavers would be both undefeated and ranked.

On the other hand, the Huskies have not lived up to their preseason expectations as they were shocked in Week 1 by Montana in a 13-7 home loss before getting curb-stomped at Michigan, 31-10, in Week 2.

They have since dominated an overmatched Arkansas State team then outlasted California, 31-23, in overtime last Saturday in Seattle.

Both teams are undefeated after one game in the Conference of Champions, but who’ll stay unbeaten in conference play and establish themselves as a contender in the Pac-12 North with a win on Saturday night?


Washington vs. Oregon State Betting Preview

Saturday, October 2
9 p.m. ET
Pac-12 Network

Washington Huskies

Washington Offense

The Washington offense has been one of — if not the — most disappointing units in the Pac-12 so far this season. The Huskies returned 10-of-11 offensive starters, including all five offensive linemen and starting quarterback Dylan Morris.

The Huskies’ offensive line allowed just one sack in last year’s four-game season and was expected to be the strength of the offense this season.

However, they’ve significantly regressed as they now rank 101st in Pass Blocking.

After throwing for 8.2 yards per pass as a redshirt freshman last year, Morris has thrown for 7.3 yards per pass this season. Morris’s QBR has also dipped from 69.9 through four games last year to 44.2 through four games this season.

However, the regression in the running game has been equally consequential as they have decreased their yards per carry from a middling 4.0 yards per carry last year to a poor 3.2 yards per carry this season. Their struggles running the football are a big reason why the Huskies rank 107th in Finishing Drives.

The Huskies don’t have many playmakers at receiver and with star tight end Cade Otton’s status unclear due to COVID-19 protocols (he missed the previous game against Cal), they need playmakers to step up alongside Morris to keep pace with the improved Oregon State offense.


Washington Defense

Last year, the Huskies had the best pass rush in the Pac-12 thanks to the combination of Joe Tryon and Zion Tupuola-Fetui at outside linebacker.

Unfortunately for Washington fans, Tryon was drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft and Tupuola-Fetui remains out indefinitely after rupturing his Achilles tendon in April.

Consequently, Washington’s pass rush has regressed as they rank a below-average 75th in Pass Rush this season and 88th in Havoc created.

Led by Trent McDuffie, the Huskies have a strong secondary (again), as they rank third in Pass Success Rate allowed.

🚫 NO FLY ZONE 🚫@kyler_gordon #BowDown x #PurpleReign pic.twitter.com/9ZMAIBhVXB

— Washington Football (@UW_Football) September 29, 2021

The rushing defense needs improvement if they hope to contend in the Pac-12 North as the Huskies rank 76th in Rush Success Rate and 96th in Line Yards.

They face a strong Oregon State rushing attack led by B.J. Baylor that just exposed USC last week en route to 322 rushing yards.

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Oregon State Beavers

Oregon State Offense

After replacing Noyer as the quarterback in the second half of the season opener against Purdue, Nolan hasn’t looked back as he’s looked like one of the most improved players in all of college football.

Last season, Nolan was the backup to Tristan Gebbia as a true freshman and was thrust into action as the starter for the final three games of the season after Gebbia suffered a hamstring injury (Gebbia remains out due to his hamstring now).

Nolan didn’t look ready to lead the Beavers’ offense as a passer, although he did show some flashes as a runner in the three games he started (all losses).

This season, he’s turned heads as he’s recorded a QBR of 93 with no single-game QBR below 87 in any of his four games.

For reference, he recorded a QBR between 47 and 60 in each of his three starts last season.

QB Chance Nolan led @BeaverFootball to a historic win on Saturday with:

🟠 4 touchdown passes
🟠 213 yards passing
🟠 School-record for points against USC
🟠 #RoseBowl Game @pac12 Player of the Week pic.twitter.com/gOL5rTcJl8

— Rose Bowl Game (@rosebowlgame) September 27, 2021

Nolan is coming off of his best performance ever as he completed 15-of-19 attempts for 213 yards and four touchdowns against USC while adding five carries for 57 yards. He recorded a nearly perfect 98.5 QBR despite throwing two interceptions.

Nolan’s emergence has elevated the Beavers’ offense that established itself last season as a quality rushing attack with Jermar Jefferson, who has since departed for the NFL.

Baylor has picked up where Jefferson left off this season as he ranks 18th nationally with 6.9 yards per carry.

The Beavers’ offensive line has continuously opened holes as they rank 14th in Rush Success Rate and 21st in Line Yards.

The offense’s weakness is that they rank just 78th in Pass Blocking. Giving Nolan time to operate against an elite Washington secondary will be imperative.


Oregon State Defense

This is a big “prove it” game for the Oregon State defense.

On paper, they look strong against the run as they rank 31st in Defensive Line Yards and 59th in Rush Success Rate allowed.

However, they haven’t faced a team like Washington, as the two Power Five teams they’ve faced — Purdue and USC — are two of the most pass-happy offenses in the country.

The key matchup that will determine the winner of this game is if Oregon State can stop the Washington rushing attack and force Morris to beat them with his arm.

The Beavers rank 39th in Pass Success Rate, but they rank 110th in Pass Rush. The disparity between these two pass-defense statistics is because they have allowed too many big plays (ranking 74th in Big Plays allowed).

If Washington is without Otton at tight end, the Beavers should have success in limiting chunk yardage for the Huskies.

Jack Colletto is the 1st player to rush for 2 TDs & secure an INT in the same game at the FBS level since 2004. 🚨

Did Colletto earn the @76 Fan Fueled Moment? Tweet #FanFueled2 to vote!#GoBeavs | @BeaverFootball | #Pac12FB pic.twitter.com/eG009CA2m0

— Pac-12 Network (@Pac12Network) September 28, 2021

Linebackers Avery Roberts and Jack Colletto lead a Beavers defense that has been opportunistic as they rank fifth in Havoc created.

Colletto, who scored two touchdowns as a rusher last week, also picked off USC quarterback Kedon Slovis and brought out the turnover chainsaw at the Coliseum.


Washington vs. Oregon State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington and Oregon State match up statistically:

Washington Offense vs. Oregon State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
54
59
Line Yards
43
31
Pass Success
53
39
Pass Blocking**
101
110
Big Play
56
74
Havoc
65
5
Finishing Drives
107
33
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Oregon State Offense vs. Washington Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
14
76
Line Yards
21
96
Pass Success
44
3
Pass Blocking**
78
75
Big Play
21
47
Havoc
7
88
Finishing Drives
1
28
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
67
106
PFF Coverage
15
68
Middle 8
75
44
SP+ Special Teams
109
6
Plays per Minute
36
90
Rush Rate
44.6% (117)
58.6% (45)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Washington vs. Oregon State Betting Pick

The Oregon State offensive line is better than the Washington offensive line, and I expect the Beavers to have more success running the football than the Huskies.

Furthermore, the Beavers have the better quarterback in Nolan, who is still underrated.

The Washington defense still has a strong secondary, but they don’t have their typical talent in the front seven to put the necessary pressure on Nolan in the pocket without Tupuola-Fetui.

The Washington offense hasn’t inspired much confidence this season and Morris simply isn’t more than a game manager.

Without a strong running game or difference makers at receiver (in addition to Otton potentially remaining out), Morris won’t make enough winning plays to keep up with Baylor, Nolan, and the Beavers’ offense.

Take the Beavers to cover as 2.5-point favorites with value down to -4 as they get revenge after last year’s loss in Seattle.

Pick: Oregon State -2.5 (Play to -4). 

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