College Football Odds & Best Bets: 3 Picks for Saturday Night, Including Alabama vs. Texas A&M, Arizona vs. Oregon
Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images. Pictured: Mase Funa (Oregon)
- It's been a great day of college football so far, but we're not done yet.
- Our staff broke down three best bets for Saturday night's games, including picks for Alabama vs. Texas A&M and Arizona vs. Oregon.
- Check out all three best bets for Saturday evening below.
College football's Week 6 isn't over yet, as our staff is eyeing three evening games for their best bets.
These games include last year's Mountain West champs taking on Air Force, Texas A&M vs. Alabama and a Pac-12 After Dark affair in Tucson.
Dive in below to grab three best bets for Saturday's evening slate.
Week 6 Evening College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Air Force vs. Utah State
Last year’s Mountain West champs have absolutely fallen off of a cliff this year.
The Aggies are just 1-4, with their only win coming by 11 points at home against UConn. Utah State sits 112th in the country in Success Rate on offense, 128th in Explosiveness and 119th in Finishing Drives.
Things have gone from bad to worse for the Aggies, as they lost quarterback Logan Bonner for the season.
Cooper Legas takes over as the starter and while he is much more mobile than Bonner, he is completing just 54% of his passes this year with two touchdowns and three interceptions.
Last week against BYU, Legas had 20 rushing attempts, but managed just 52 yards. Air Force should have no problem slowing down a rushing quarterback, coming off of its game against Navy.
For an Aggies team that is 28th in the nation in rushing rate, they are just 114th in Success Rate. They run the ball, just not well.
Meanwhile, Air Force sits first in the country in rushing rate and is eighth in Success Rate. The Falcons are third in the nation in yards per carry, averaging 6.3 yards per rush. That is ridiculous for a team that runs it every play.
Lead back Brad Roberts is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and John Lee Eldridge III has gone for 9.3 yards per attempt — he averages nearly a first down on every carry.
When they do pass the ball with Haaziq Daniels, it’s unexpected, so they lead the country in passing explosiveness. Daniels is averaging just seven attempts per game, but has gone for 10.7 yards per attempt.
This Utah State defense is allowing 4.7 yards per carry this year, which ranks 113th in the nation. The Aggies also sit 110th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed.
Things are unraveling quickly in Logan. The Aggies have lost four straight games by at least 10 points, including losing by 28 to FCS Weber State. I don’t think this team has quit yet, but for a squad that already has experienced winning, we will see how long they keep fighting vs. Air Force.
I’ll lay the -10 and would play it to -12.5.
Pick: Air Force -10.5 (Play to -12.5)
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
I wrote about it in the offseason, I broke it down again this week and now I’m taking it as my best bet. Pissed off Nick Saban revenge spot narrative aside, the Aggies are just simply outmatched in nearly every sense of the game.
As if it couldn’t get any worse, quarterback Max Johnson broke a bone in his throwing hand and will not be playing this week. That leaves backup Haynes King to step in and take command of this porous offense.
Alabama will be sending the house to generate backfield pressure and look to create Havoc against one the worst offenses in the country. The Aggies are grossly outmatched on the line, giving little to no protection with near-bottom ranks in Line Yards and Pass Protection.
On the offensive end, the Crimson Tide will be able to run all over the Aggies, as Texas A&M ranks sub-100 in both Defensive Line Yards and Defensive Rush Success.
Even if Bryce Young can’t suit up because of injury, the Tide will be more than comfortable in letting backup quarterback Jalen Milroe scramble, as he is more of a threat on his feet than Young.
Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan are poised for a big game on the ground, especially if Saban goes a little conservative to start with Milroe getting comfortable under center.
With the Aggies unable to defend the run, I will take Bama and the points at -13.5 for the first half. Play it no higher than -14.
Pick: Alabama -13.5 1H (Play to -14)
Oregon vs. Arizona
By Cody Goggin
The opening week throttling by Georgia has seemed to set the national narrative for this Oregon team, but the Ducks have actually been outstanding since.
Since the UGA game, the Ducks are 4-0 and have been exceeding expectations. Using Bill Connelly’s expected scores, the Ducks have been expected to be 4-0 ATS in those four games, covering by an average margin of 14.95 points per game.
The markets have still not caught up to how good this team is playing.
Oregon ranks fifth in Offensive Success Rate and fourth in Rushing Success Rate. The Ducks have the ninth-highest rated offense in the country by SP+, as well.
Arizona’s defense has struggled this year, ranking 125th in Defensive Success Rate. It is struggling in both facets, as the unit is 123rd against both the pass and the run.
Overall, this is ranked as the 103rd-best defense by SP+. Oregon should be able to have an excellent offensive day against this Arizona defense.
Oregon’s defense is a bit more worrisome. It ranks 126th in Defensive Success Rate and is dead last in the FBS at 131st in Passing Success Rate. SP+ does give the Ducks more credit than this, ranking them as the 45th-best defense in the nation.
In the Ducks’ defense, they have faced three offenses that rank in the top 20 in Passing Success Rate this season.
Luckily for Oregon, Arizona doesn’t have a stellar offense. The Wildcats rank 76th in Offensive Success Rate and are 82nd in SP+. While the Ducks’ defense has looked awful at times, I don’t believe this will be an offense that challenges them.
Oregon is much better than this number shows, and it should win handily on Saturday. The Ducks have dominated almost every opponent since facing Georgia in Week 1, and I expect them to keep this momentum going.