Western Michigan vs. Toledo Odds, Picks: Bet the Rockets in MAC Showdown (October 23)

Western Michigan vs. Toledo Odds, Picks: Bet the Rockets in MAC Showdown (October 23) article feature image
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Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Bouwens.

  • The Western Michigan Broncos take on the Toledo Rockets in a MAC matchup on Saturday afternoon.
  • The Broncos have had an impressive start to the season at 5-2 overall, while the Rockets are looking to get on track in conference play.
  • Doug Ziefel breaks the game down below and shares a betting pick based on his analysis.

Western Michigan vs. Toledo Odds

Saturday, Oct. 23
3:30 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
Western Michigan Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5
-115
54.5
-110o / -110u
-130
Toledo Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
-105
54.5
-110o / -110u
+110
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Everybody loves MACtion and we get a great one this week as the Western Michigan Broncos head to the Glass Bowl to take on the Toledo Rockets.

These two programs have a rich history, as the Rockets lead the all-time series 44-31, though Western Michigan took last year’s meeting in a 41-38 shootout.

The Broncos have been rolling offensively, leading to some impressive victories. Earlier this season, they went into Pittsburgh and outdueled one of the top offenses in the country. Last week, WMU lit up the scoreboard again and blew out Kent State 64-31.

Will the offense continue to cook against a stingy Toledo defense?

Toledo has been trending in the wrong direction of late, dropping two straight, though, it lost those games by a combined five points.

The Rockets have been close, but can they get over the hump and take down the Broncos?


Western Michigan Broncos

Broncos Stampeding Past Opposing Defenses 

The Western Michigan offense has been firing on all cylinders this season thanks to the progress made by quarterback Kaleb Eleby.

After starting slow, Eleby has turned it on over the last five games with 1,375 yards and 10 touchdowns to just two interceptions.

The other cylinder of this offense is the rushing attack, sparked by sophomore Sean Tyler. Tyler has been a change of pace back to starter La’Darius Jefferson but has recently taken over the team lead in rushing after a string of highly efficient performances.

His breakout game came last week when he ran for 169 yards at 9.9 yards per carry.

The Broncos’ offensive line will be at a disadvantage in the trenches in this one, though, so Eleby might be relied upon more in this matchup.


Broncos Middle of The Pack Defensively

Allowing nearly the same amount of points as their offense averages is a worrying sign for the Broncos defensively.

This is a team that has covered up the average defense by doing just enough so its offense can outscore the opponent.

Toledo’s defense is stout, so the Broncos will be on the field defensively much more than they are used to.

WMU’s defense allows six yards per play, which is 92nd in the country, and ranks 115th in opponent red-zone scoring percentage. The Broncos do rank sixth in defensive Havoc created, though, Toledo is not a team that generally makes mistakes and turns the ball over.

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Toledo Rockets

Rockets’ Run Game Will Be Key 

Toledo’s offense is generally a balanced attack, but a quick look at the numbers shows that it is far more successful on the ground.

The man behind the rushing success has been junior Bryant Koback, who has been incredibly efficient at 5.3 yards per carry.

For Toledo to win this game, it’ll have to establish the run. The Rockets should be able to do so against the Broncos, which will put the game script in their favor.

Once the run game is working, play-action passes will be available, which could create big plays against a defense that is 120th in Big Plays Allowed and 102nd in coverage.


Little Things Create Big Results

This Toledo defense is a very sound unit. The Rockets are second in tackling and 20th in coverage, two aspects that have led to the eye-popping advanced metrics.

Coming in at sixth in Rushing Success Rate, 25th in Line Yards and ninth in defensive Finishing Drives shows that this unit is very underrated.

One more notable statistic is that Toledo has held opponents to only 4.5 yards per play,  good for 15th in the country.

All those numbers equate to the Rockets having an answer for anything that Western Michigan can present to them.


Western Michigan vs. Toledo Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Western Michigan and Toledo match up statistically:

Western Michigan Offense vs. Toledo Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 22 6
Line Yards 43 25
Pass Success 31 59
Pass Blocking** 41 27
Big Play 110 43
Havoc 21 19
Finishing Drives 71 9
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Toledo Offense vs. Western Michigan Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 48 72
Line Yards 62 33
Pass Success 102 22
Pass Blocking** 115 22
Big Play 95 120
Havoc 89 6
Finishing Drives 109 79
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 74 2
Coverage 102 12
Middle 8 85 20
SP+ Special Teams 130 90
Plays per Minute 112 83
Rush Rate 60.% (32) 54.5% (66)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Western Michigan vs. Toledo Betting Pick

Toledo has everything you want in a short home dog.

The market has recognized this as the number has been steamed down since opening.

Take the Rockets here at home if you can get it at two or better. If not just take them on the moneyline at plus money, as they can definitely win outright.

Pick: Toledo +2 or better | Toledo ML

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