College Football Odds & Player Props for Week 8: Our Top 3 Bets, Including Aidan O’Connell and Breece Hall
David K Purdy/Getty Images. Pictured: Breece Hall.
Player props went 1-2 in Week 7, moving our overall record to 12-8 this season.
We enjoyed an easy winner on Jaylen Warren’s rushing yards total over, which opened at 94.5 and closed at 114.5. The Oklahoma State back registered an easy 193 yards against the Longhorns.
We have plenty of value across the board in Week 8. Although lines are becoming sharper and the market is pricing in more information, this is personally one of my favorite slates to date.
Here is who we’re banking on this Saturday to get us back on track. You can find these plays at PrizePicks, which is available in 30 states.
Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell Over/Under 244.5 Passing Yards
Fading a quarterback with 46 pass attempts on average over the past two weeks is a tough pill to swallow. However, if there is a situation to do it, it’s the one that O’Connell is in facing Wisconsin.
After finishing second in the country in opponent completion percentage (50.5%) in 2020, Wisconsin ranks sixth (51.9%) entering Week 8.
The Badgers’ defense also ranks third nationally in Pass Success rate, and eighth in both Havoc and Big Play rate.
Over its last four road games, Wisconsin has allowed just 141.8 yards per game to opposing starting quarterbacks.
O’Connell has obliterated this number in consecutive weeks, totaling 746 yards through the air, but he’s recording just 7.2 adjusted yards per attempt in 2021.
If he’s expecting his receivers to do a bulk of the damage after the catch, it’s not happening against a Wisconsin defense that is 17th in the country in tackling.
I love the under, especially in a game projected for roughly 40 points.
Pick: Under 244.5
Iowa State RB Breece Hall Over/Under 109.5 Rushing Yards
This is an absolutely monster spot for Hall with #8 Oklahoma State coming to town.
The Cowboys had no answer for the Cyclones’ star back in last year’s meeting. Hall toted the rock 20 times for 185 yards and his 9.3 yards per carry marked a season high.
The Cowboys are top 40 in both Line Yards and Rush Success rate allowed, but they can’t tackle, ranking 103rd nationally in this department. Hall is bound to get free multiple times, especially in an offense that sits just outside the top 20 in rush rate this season.
Iowa State is quietly creeping up the national radar again, and Hall’s been the cog. His 2.82 Yards per Team Play is first among draft-eligible running backs, while he’s racked up 110 yards or more on the ground in three straight games.
Pick: Over 109.5
Tennessee WR Velus Jones Over/Under 65.5 Receiving Yards
Whether it’s in a neutral-game state or garbage time, Jones should see the volume to get past this receiving total.
The USC transfer and sixth-year wide receiver was hardly a factor early in the season, catching three or fewer passes in his first three out the gates. However, with quarterback Hendon Hooker heating up, Jones has 19 total catches for 275 yards over his last three.
Alabama is a tough draw in general for Tennessee — the Vols are four-score ‘dogs — but I trust Josh Heupel to put his skill corps in suitable situations.
The first-year Tennessee head man is doing his best to carry over his UCF blueprint to the SEC:.The Vols are running plays at the second-fastest rate in the country and average close to 14 yards per reception this season.
Jones personally has one catch of at least 30 yards in five straight. He’s surpassed this listed total by at least 13 yards in each of the last three, and only needs a couple grabs to cash this prop.
Pick: Over 65.5