Florida State vs. LSU Odds & Prediction: Our Spread & Total Best Bets for Sunday’s Showdown
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Florida State vs. LSU Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +114 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
By Dan Keegan
Do you remember Stefon on Saturday Night Live? The Bill Hader character who was a New York City club scene kid gushing about how an upcoming party has everything?
“This place has everything. Skunks, key fobs, cookie crisps, Dan Cortese, that backroom at Foot Locker that employees disappear into.” You know the bit.
Yeah, that’s this game. This game has everything.
Do you like star quarterbacks? Both teams have veteran playmakers at the position in LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Florida State’s Jordan Travis. Both enjoyed breakout seasons last year and can beat defenses with their arms and their legs.
Do you like explosive pass-catchers? This game is chock-full of them. These are two of the best receiver rooms in the country, with plenty of names to get acquainted with for your future NFL watching, like Malik Nabers and Keon Coleman.
What about defensive stars? Harold Perkins of LSU and Jared Verse of Florida State are two of the most electric edge rushers in the country right now. Mekhi Wingo, Omar Speights, Fabian Lovett and Fentrell Cypress are all big names on that side of the ball.
What about storylines? Both outfits are playoff sleeper picks, hoping to crash the party and needing an early big win to bolster their resume.
This is also a revenge spot, as LSU fell in this matchup last year on a blocked extra point as time expired — as close as you can get to a win without actually taking home the victory.
So, how should you play a game so evenly matched? We polled our team of 17 expert writers, and we think this as close as possible. Our staff consensus gives the slightest of leans to the Seminoles and also a slight lean to the over.
With a game that already has everything, why not make a little money, too? Let’s get to the picks.
Florida State vs. LSU Spread
Split Decision
By John Feltman
Our poll with the Action Network staff seemed to be pretty even on which side they were leaning toward. Honestly, I wasn't too surprised.
However, I have a strong take on this game, and as I monitor the market I feel even stronger as sharp money has started to pour in on the Seminoles. Every time a +3 appears out there, it seems to get popped right away and the number settles back down to +2.5.
Jordan Travis and this Noles rushing attack are more than capable of finding success against this stout LSU defense. They finished first in the ACC in rushing and 13th overall across the entire FBS just a season ago.
If they establish the run from the get-go, this will set up some explosive pass plays down the field. This would be the ideal game plan, as LSU’s secondary is without question the Achilles' heel of their defense.
If LSU can shut down the Noles’ running game, I think it's going to be a long night for Jordan Travis. Once you release these pass rushers, it's going to shut down any sort of downfield threat.
This is a unit that finished in the top-40 in Defensive Success Rate, and that doesn’t account for all of the talent that was brought in through the portal.
Regardless, I trust Mike Norvell's squad to establish the run early on, and I think it wins this game outright.
Wide receiver Johnny Wilson could be in store for a huge day, as his 6-foot-7. 240-pound frame will create plenty of mismatches in this LSU secondary.
Our Action Network Analytics team actually projects FSU as a small 1-point favorite, so I would suggest keeping an eye on the market to see if +3 pops up again. Worst case, there will probably be opportunities to bet the Noles live if they go down a score early.
Florida State vs. LSU Over/Under
Over 58 | 7 Picks |
Pass | 4 Picks |
Under 58 | 6 Picks |
Split Decision
Our staff is fairly split on the total, but I don’t see why a game quarterbacked by Jordan Travis and Jaylen Daniels can’t fly over the total.
Travis threw for 3,200 yards and 24 touchdowns last season. Daniels recorded 2,900 yards and 17 touchdowns, but he added 1100 yards and 11 scores on the ground.
Behind their respective quarterbacks, Florida State finished 13th in Success Rate last season, while LSU ranked seventh.
There’s no reason to expect anything different tonight.
Both offenses return eight starters.
There’s an incredible amount of experience on both lines, with LSU returning four starters and 102 FBS career starts, while FSU has an amazing 206 FBS career starts on the line.
Both of these teams feature a dominant rushing attack, and all the leading rushers return for both squads, save for FSU’s Treshaun Ward, who put up 649 yards and seven touchdowns a season ago.
Last season, LSU’s offensive line last season finished first in average Line Yards, so Daniels and a deep running back corps ripped off 184 rush YPG while ranking 10th in rush EPA per play.
Meanwhile, FSU ripped off 214 rush yards per game while ranking 21st in Rush EPA per Play. Trey Benson almost hit 1,000 yards while ranking 13th in PFF’s rush grades behind 4.53 yards after contact per rush (sixth among FBS running backs with at least 70 carries).
While both defenses also return tons of talent, both squads featured lackluster rush defenses last season. LSU ranked 60th in Rush Success Rate allowed, while FSU finished 93rd.
The Seminoles’ rush defense worries me more. They finished 2022 92nd in Defensive Line Yards and 88th in Standard Downs Success Rate Allowed. I expect them to be a tad better this season behind superstar Jared Verse, but it’s still a worry.
Meanwhile, the LSU secondary is filled with fresh faces with only one returning starter. So, if FSU can establish the run, the ‘Noles can dial up deep shots against a retooled Tigers’ pass defense.
I expect both offenses to move the ball at will and cap off long drives with good dual-action rush sets in the red zone. Both offenses ranked top-25 in Finishing Drives on offense last season.
Our Action PRO model isn’t worried, projecting 65 total points in this one. That’s nearly a 10-point edge over the market!
It might feel like we’re watching a ping-pong match with each offense waltzing back and forth across the screen on Sunday.
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