LSU vs Florida State Odds, Picks | Sunday Betting Guide

The preeminent game of Week 1 will kick from Camping World Stadium on Sunday night and will boost the national title hopes of either LSU or Florida State.

Mike Norvell and Brian Kelly are set to face off for the fourth consecutive season with the last two decided by a grand total of four points.

The 2022 matchup proved to be a barn burner from the Superdome, as Florida State held a comfortable two-touchdown lead early in the fourth quarter. With a roster that led the transfer portal in acquisitions, the Tigers put the Seminoles on the ropes with two late touchdowns.

Following LSU's touchdown as time expired, Florida State kept the game from going to overtime with a miraculous blocked extra point.

The two teams will meet again, this time from the state of Florida.

Both rosters took positive marks in TARP during the offseason, with each retaining quarterbacks that sit high on the Heisman odds board. The trenches are populated with future NFL stars, making this game must-see college football TV at its finest.

One team will still be alive for a conference title when it's all said and done, while the winner will springboard to the forefront of all conversations pertaining to the national title.

Kelly entered Baton Rouge with a new southern dialect — and the goal of winning a national title.

His first order of business in 2022 was a complete overhaul of the roster, bringing in more than 15,000 snaps via the transfer portal.

LSU would go on to make the SEC Championship game thanks in part to the play of quarterback Jayden Daniels. The former Arizona State transfer has put on muscle weight in the offseason in hopes of remaining healthy during a season that will see the Tigers run plenty of inside zone.

Daniels is complemented by a stable of running backs that includes Josh Williams and Noah Cain, along with Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs. Injuries were a concern for the group, but Kelly has indicated that all are healthy and will participate in Orlando.

The biggest question surrounds the weapons in the passing game not named Malik Nabers. Both Brian Thomas Jr. and Kyren Lacy received less than 50 targets a season ago, each producing less than 1.4 yards per route run.

After struggling to find stability and effectiveness for years, the offensive line has found depth and should plow plenty of holes for the ground game this season.

There are plenty of questions at all three levels of the defense, starting with the replacement of Maason Smith. The sophomore defensive tackle will sit one game for an NCAA infraction, as LSU's depth will fill his starting role with Jordan Jefferson and Jacobian Guillory.

The secondary is populated with transfers, with cornerback Duce Chestnut posting a single pass breakup on 48 targets for Syracuse last year.

Linebacker Omar Speights transfers in from Oregon State, filling the role of coverage linebacker. That was an important spot to fill after superstar linebacker Harold Perkins posted a poor grade in coverage, per PFF.

There's no question Perkins is the top linebacker in college football in terms of stopping the run and roaming the field from sideline to sideline.

Memphis had a tremendous season in 2019, catapulting Norvell into the conversation for other head-coaching positions. As the Tigers made their way to the Cotton Bowl, their coach resigned and took the head-coaching role in Tallahassee.

Norvell entered a dire roster situation at Florida State, as his predecessors left nothing in the cabinet. The offensive line was a multi-year rebuild long before the new transfer portal rules existed. Then the pandemic hit in March 2020, limiting spring practice and season preparation.

Fast forward to 2023, and Florida State has one of the most talented rosters in the nation led by quarterback Jordan Travis.

The rushing numbers are a constant for Travis, who generated 28 missed tackles and 22 explosive runs a season ago. The biggest progression for the fifth-year quarterback has come through the air, as he has lowered his turnover-worthy play rate to a career-low 1.9% in 2022.

The offensive line retains 85% of snaps from a season ago — great news for Travis in passing downs and for electric running back Trey Benson. The Seminoles finished 10th in Rushing Success and EPA, complemented by a top-35 rank in Finishing Drives.

Transfer wide receiver Keon Coleman joins the list of targets, and none are more talented than Johnny Wilson and his 3.4 yards per route run.

The defense will once again be anchored by a ferocious front seven led by Jared Verse. The edge is a one-man instant Havoc-maker with 36 pressures, nine sacks and eight tackles for loss a season ago.

The defensive depth chart is loaded with seniors at all three levels, so Florida State should produce similar numbers from a year ago.

Although the Seminoles have one of the best defenses in the country, there have been gaps in defending the run getting called for penalties in recent seasons. With improvement in those areas, Florida State can pocket a victory in Orlando on the path to the College Football Playoff.

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There are a limited amount of questions with two rosters chock-full of future professional players.

LSU enters 2023 with a much better sense of its offensive identity versus a season ago. Its offensive line against Florida State's defensive front seven is appointment viewing, but LSU will start with plenty of inside zone looking to move the chains.

If there's a question on the Florida State defense, it comes in scoring position. The Seminoles fell from 29th to 91st in Finishing Drives last season, allowing 4.1 points per opportunity to opponents that crossed the 40-yard line.

Florida State finished outside the top 40 last year in terms of hard stops and first-down defense. If Daniels can gain the required line yards via the inside zone, methodical scoring drives will follow.

The questions for LSU revolve around the inefficiency and experience of the secondary.

Zy Alexander is the prototypical cornerback who can put a wide receiver on an island, but the nickel and safety combo of Major Burns and Sage Ryan forced just seven incompletions on 51 targets in 2022. Those players are expected to provide help to Chestnut in keeping the 6-foot-7 Wilson in check at wideout for the Seminoles.

The Action Network projection makes this game a pure pick'em, giving points on either side value.

Considering Florida State is better equipped to move the ball downfield in passing downs against LSU's secondary, the play is on the Seminoles to cover and potentially pick up a victory for the ACC.

The total projects around 60 with the market hovering just above the key number of 55. If Florida State doesn't improve its red-zone defense, this game will exceed the total. Any gameday steam down to 55 would trigger a play on the over.

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