Week 6 of the college football season is upon us. While there aren't as many season-defining matchups on the schedule this week, there are still plenty of intriguing games scattered across the board.
I broke down three of those games and dished out a pick for each one.
First, we'll start in Ohio, where the No. 14 Iowa State Cyclones put their undefeated record to the test as underdogs against the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Then, we'll head south to Gainesville, where DJ Lagway and the Florida Gators host Arch Manning and the No. 9 Texas Longhorns in an SEC battle.
Finally, we'll close things out with an ACC battle in one of the biggest games of the weekend when the No. 3 Miami Hurricanes take on the No. 18 Florida State Seminoles.
Let's take a look at my Week 6 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, October 4.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of Week 6 games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Iowa State vs Cincinnati Pick
The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Saturday, Oct. 4. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Cincinnati is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. Iowa State, meanwhile, comes in as a +1.5 underdog and comes in at +105 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 54 total points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. Cincinnati prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones didn't miss a beat after a much-needed bye week. Iowa State crushed Arizona for a second Big 12 victory in as many games, as offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser put on a clinic for how to confuse a defense.
Quarterback Rocco Becht had two big-time throws (despite not passing for a touchdown), and the usage of tight ends in direct snaps and as explosive passers was on full display.
The Clones' 3-3-5 stack defense held Arizona to just five yards per play, preventing any explosive drives on 12 Wildcat offensive possessions.
The three-man front has failed to produce a pass rush this season, but the back half of the defense grades in the top 35 in pass efficiency and coverage grading, per PFF.
Iowa State consistently switches protection from quarters to Cover 2, a look that assists against the opposing rush.
The Cyclones have been excellent at limiting ground explosives, ranking sixth in defensive rush EPA.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati won its first game in the Big 12, but not without a questionable box score against Kansas. The Bearcats' three-point victory came with a 24% post-game win expectancy, as they allowed the Jayhawks to average 10.9 overall yards per play.
The Cincinnati defense allowed quarterback Jalon Daniels to score on two individual drives that took one play, each a pass of at least 75 yards to Emmanuel Henderson Jr.
A fumble at the goal line and recovery by the Cincinnati defense in the fourth quarter assisted head coach Scott Satterfield in his first conference win of the season.
The Cincinnati defense was without its best player in nose tackle Dontay Corleone, but his return could come this week against Iowa State.
The Bearcats have struggled to create a pass rush or produce Havoc, with both numbers sitting outside the top 110 in FBS.
A high volume of Cover 3 has resulted in a 33% Success Rate. The nickel defense has been above average in stopping outside zone run concepts and opponent scoring attempts.
The great news for the Bearcats is an offense that's been electric through four games. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby leads the unit with a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, lowering his turnover-worthy play rate to a minuscule 1.5% on 125 dropbacks.
The senior has been a part of an elite zone-read rushing attack, along with Tawee Walker and Evan Pryor, as Cincinnati is top-three nationally in Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.
The passing game has been just as deadly against opposing defenses, as slot Cyrus Allen and wideout Jeff Caldwell each average more than 2.6 yards per route run.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati Prediction
Without Corleone on the defensive line, the Cyclones could wreak havoc at the line of scrimmage with heavy 12- and 13-personnel packages.
The Jayhawks had a 62% Success Rate on 26 rushing attempts against Cincinnati without Corleone. Iowa State could achieve a similar Success Rate depending on the status of the Bearcats' best player.
The more identifiable deliverable in this game is what the Cincinnati offense can produce against the Iowa State defense. The Bearcats have already faced two Power Four nickel package defenses in Nebraska and Kansas.
Sorsby has dominated quarters coverage this season with a 64% Success Rate and an explosive play on one of every three attempts.
Considering Iowa State doesn't produce a pass rush, Cincinnati should continue to have success through the air, given its passing downs efficiency and EPA rank in the top 30.
The rushing attack is the difference in the game, as the Cyclones have severe struggles against both inside and outside zone read concepts. Iowa State has posted a poor 41% Success Rate or worse against zone read, along with overall defensive rush efficiency, Line Yards and Stuff Rate ranks outside the top 70.
Cincinnati has created quality drives on offense at a top-20 national rate and is entering this home game at Nippert Stadium as the sixth-best overall team in Finishing Drives.
Pick: Cincinnati Team Total Over 27.5
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Texas vs Florida Pick
The Texas Longhorns take on the Florida Gators in Gainesville, FL. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Texas is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. Florida, meanwhile, comes in as a +7 underdog and sits at +210 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 42 total points.
Here’s my Texas vs. Florida prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Texas Longhorns
After three games of not meeting preseason expectations, Texas took Sam Houston to the woodshed on both sides of the ball before entering a bye week.
The Longhorns gained 77% of available yards and gave up just 9% to the Bearkats, resembling a fluidity that was expected in the season-opening loss to Ohio State.
After committing five turnover-worthy plays against Ohio State and San Jose State, quarterback Arch Manning has settled in over the past two games, posting just one mistake and tossing four passing touchdowns.
The scoring opportunities that have plagued the offense were relieved against Sam Houston, as Texas had seven red-zone attempts resulting in five touchdowns and a pair of field goals.
Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski's 3-3-5 defense has been the biggest positive of the Longhorns' season through the first quarter of play. Ranking top-15 in overall Success Rate, Texas is the best defense in limiting quality drives and rush explosives.
Texas also sits seventh overall in hard stops, a PFF measurement that consists of a tackle that creates a failure for the offense.
Florida Gators
Head coach Billy Napier has the hottest seat in college football, as a fourth consecutive loss could trigger a reset from athletic director Scott Stricklin.
Florida hasn't only lost three straight, but it has failed to cover against USF, LSU and Miami.
If there's a bit of positive news, quarterback DJ Lagway didn't commit a turnover-worthy play in the loss to the Hurricanes after posting six against LSU.
The numbers against The U suggest the Gators lost faith in their passing attack, as Lagway had an average depth of target of 3.7 yards on 12-of-23 passing.
The Gators posted a 21% Success Rate in passing downs and only 2.7 yards per play against the Hurricanes defense.
The 3-3-5 defense from co-coordinators Ron Roberts and Vinnie Sunseri has been excellent. The Gators rank top-25 against the rush in terms of efficiency, explosiveness and Stuff Rate.
The Gators have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, giving credit to a PFF tackling grade of seventh in FBS. Led by linebacker Myles Graham, Florida has allowed only eight red-zone trips the entire season.
Texas vs Florida Prediction
There was no progress for the Florida offense in a loss to Miami, as Lagway was leashed with short routes and three drops by his targets.
The inside zone rushing attack needed every bit of Jadan Baugh's four yards after first contact, as the offensive line sits outside the top 40 in Line Yards and outside the top 80 in Stuff Rate.
Texas has posted an average Defensive Success Rate against inside zone concepts, but passing attempts from Lagway into the Longhorns' nickel defense could be troublesome.
Florida has averaged just five offensive possessions per game when it comes to crossing the opponent's 40-yard line.
Conversely, the outside zone and counter concepts called by head coach Steve Sarkisian should have success moving Texas into scoring opportunities.
The Longhorns have a minimum 61% Success Rate on those rushing attempts, concepts that Florida has posted just a 44% Success Rate in defending.
Texas hasn't had problems creating scoring opportunities. The issues have stemmed from an inability to put points on the board under Sarkisian.
The Florida defense has been excellent when pinned against the goal line, ranking 25th in Finishing Drives allowed. The Gators have had only 10 opponent red-zone attempts, emphasizing the strength of a defense that's allowed 18 opponent possessions to cross the 40-yard line.
Between Florida's defense stiffening, Texas' inefficiency in scoring opportunities and a limited Florida offense, there could be a number of possessions ending in a field-goal attempt.
These defenses have been elite in the opening quarter of the game, as Texas hasn't allowed a single point in the first 15 minutes of any game.
Florida has also limited opponents early, allowing only a Miami touchdown as the only first-quarter points this season against the Gators.
Pick: 1H Under 21.5 · 1Q Under 7.5 or Better
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Miami vs Florida State Pick
The Miami Hurricanes take on the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee, Florida, on Saturday, Sept. 4. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Miami is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -190. Florida State, meanwhile, comes in as a +4.5 underdog and sits at +160 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 54 total points.
Here’s my Miami vs. Florida State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Miami Hurricanes
After a September schedule that kept Miami at home against top-20 opponents, the Hurricanes will have their first road game to open the conference schedule.
Head coach Mario Cristobal has his best team since taking over in Coral Gables in 2022, particularly in the department of protecting the ball. Miami ranks sixth in Havoc allowed, a statistic that combines fumbles, interceptions, tackles for loss allowed and other factors to measure offensive safety.
Led by Georgia transfer quarterback Carson Beck, Miami ranks top-20 in Success Rate, Finishing Drives and pass blocking.
The hiring of defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman from Minnesota has paid dividends. After facing the offenses of Notre Dame, Florida and South Florida, the Hurricanes sit top-10 in Defensive Rush Efficiency and Line Yards.
Mobile quarterbacks have been held at bay through four games with a grand total of 10 net rushing yards against the Miami defense.
If there's an issue to call out, the tackle grading has dipped to 91st, per PFF. After missing just seven tackles against the Irish in the season opener, Miami has missed 32 in the last two games against USF and Florida.
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State left a hostile Friday night road showdown against Virginia with a loss despite a 65% post-game win expectancy.
The loss could be attributed to the defense, which allowed the Cavaliers to control the line of scrimmage and average nearly five yards per carry.
Virginia doubled the national average in methodical drives per game while averaging just 6.1 yards to go on third downs.
Florida State struggled to stop the inside zone run concepts while allowing four explosive passes, as cornerbacks Ja'Bril Rawls and Jerry Wilson allowed 10 catches on 14 targets.
The Seminoles continue to rank as one of the best offenses in the nation with a heavy tendency to run the ball.
Quarterback Tommy Castellanos runs inside zone exclusively with Oklahoma transfer running back Gavin Sawchuk. The pair averages 3.2 yards after first contact while forcing 23 missed tackles on 85 rushing attempts.
The Florida State offensive line also comes in as the top team nationally in Line Yards.
The Seminoles must clear up ball protection, however, after dropping the rock on the carpet six times in four games.
Miami vs Florida State Prediction
The key ingredient to Florida State's success is its ability to establish the run with inside zone. This has been a strength for Miami's 4-2-5 defense so far, posting a 62% Success Rate against inside zone read concepts.
The Seminoles must work out of passing downs in this game after finding themselves in passing downs at the third-lowest rate this season.
Castellanos will see a mix of Cover 3 and man from Hetherman's defense, giving an advantage to Florida State. The Seminoles have diced up Cover 3 so far this season with a 58% Success Rate and a 25% explosive play rate.
Miami is expected to have success rushing against a Seminoles front that has an average Success Rate against man and inside zone schemes.
When the Hurricanes are forced to pass, Beck will predominantly see a quarters coverage zone look. Beck has been outstanding against quarters, generating a 75% Success Rate with an explosive on 24% of attempts.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for a spread of Miami -4, in line with the current market offering. The over, however, presents value on any number below the key of 55.
Miami will find average success in zone rushing with a high probability of explosives through the air to Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels.
As for Florida State, success against Miami's Cover 3 package will also generate opportunities for home-run scores with Duce Robinson as the target.
Pick: Over 54 or Better
