College Football Playoff Eliminator for Week 7: Who Can Still Win 2023 National Championship?
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: The College Football Playoff trophy.
Welcome back to the second week of Action Network’s Eliminator column.
In the first edition, 79 teams were eliminated from the results of games played in Weeks 1-5. Well, 13 more have joined them following Week 6. That leaves us with 92 teams eliminated and 39 teams still alive and sorted into the three tiers.
To begin, let’s take a look at the latest teams that were sent packing.
Eliminated From College Football Playoff in Week 6
1.
Arizona Wildcats
2.
Arkansas Razorbacks
3.
Auburn Tigers
4.
BYU Cougars
5.
Indiana Hoosiers
6.
Iowa Hawkeyes
7.
Iowa State Cyclones
8.
Miami Hurricanes
9.
Oklahoma Sooners
10.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
11.
Texas A&M Aggies
12.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
13.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Eliminated in Weeks 1-5
As always, here are the ground rules that will be in place all year:
- Any loss eliminates a Group of Five team immediately. In the history of the CFP, there has only been one Group of Five team to make the playoff — last year’s undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats. A one-loss Group of Five team is simply not making the playoff in the current format.
- Independents are analyzed on a case-by-case basis. I have chosen to eliminate Notre Dame given its loss to Marshall.
- Auto-elimination for any Power Five team that loses a third game. To this point, there has never even been a two-loss team that made the playoff. There have been a few that have been close over the years, but there will certainly not be a three-loss team among the final four. Hence, why Wisconsin, West Virginia, Michigan State and others were all sent packing.
- Any two-loss Power Five team that has been eliminated from conference championship contention will also be eliminated in this column. Given that we’ve never seen a two-loss team make it to this point, it’s safe to assume a two-loss team would need to win its respective conference to have any chance.
- Lastly, I reserve the right to eliminate any team that simply does not have a realistic path to the playoff. I took it easy on a few teams this week, as you'll see below, but I can’t guarantee that will be the case moving forward.
Now, with 39 teams still remaining, there are varying degrees of chances. I’ve sorted the remaining teams into three tiers: Firmly in the Mix, Hanging in There and Would Need a Miracle. Let’s dive into it.
All "To Make Playoff" odds are as of Tuesday, Oct. 11 and via DraftKings.
Firmly in the Mix (13)
Each team in this tier has done its job through six weeks.
If history has told us anything, it’s that a Power Five team that wins all of its games will make the College Football Playoff. All 13 have done that to this point, and they sit in first class as a result.
Alabama Crimson Tide (-400)
The Tide had a closer game with Texas A&M than they would have liked, but they found a way to win. Now a showdown in Knoxville awaits.
Clemson Tigers (+105)
Smooth sailing for the Tigers at Boston College. A trip to Florida State this week will have Dabo Swinney’s full attention.
Georgia Bulldogs (-500)
After a sloppy performance against Missouri, Kirby Smart’s team bounced back with a thrashing of Auburn.
Michigan Wolverines (+380)
It wasn’t pretty against Indiana, but the Wolverines got it done. They have another big one Saturday when they host Penn State.
Ole Miss Rebels (+1500)
Vanderbilt backers were not pleased with Lane Kiffin after he added an unnecessary last-minute touchdown. The schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher for the Rebels.
Ohio State Buckeyes (-500)
It was another dominant performance for the Buckeyes at Michigan State. This team has as good of a shot as any to make another College Football Playoff appearance.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (+900)
The Pokes gave up a lot of points to Texas Tech, but Spencer Sanders continues to play the best football of his career. They have a huge one at undefeated TCU on Saturday.
Penn State Nittany Lions (+1100)
The Nittany Lions were on bye last week, and all attention was presumably on Saturday’s showdown against Michigan at the Big House.
Syracuse Orange
The Orange were also on bye last week and now host a banged-up NC State team in what should be a loud one at the Carrier Dome.
Tennessee Volunteers (+700)
The Vols picked up an impressive victory over LSU in Baton Rouge. They now have an unbelievable opportunity to make a statement against Alabama on Saturday afternoon.
TCU Horned Frogs (+900)
The Horned Frogs remain unbeaten after surviving a close one at Kansas. Now, they have an opportunity to take control of the Big 12 if they can beat Oklahoma State at home.
UCLA Bruins (+1000)
The Bruins notched another big-time win on Saturday, handling Utah at the Rose Bowl. Chip Kelly’s team very well could be the Pac-12’s best chance at the College Football Playoff.
USC Trojans (+350)
Lincoln Riley continues to win in his first season in Los Angeles. The schedule is about to pick up, though, starting with Saturday’s trip to Salt Lake City.
Hanging in There (10)
Each team in this tier has suffered a loss of some variety. That said, there's still a clear pathway to the playoff — just less room for error the rest of the way.
Illinois Fighting Illini
The Illini found a way to get it done in an ugly one against Iowa. Another important Big Ten West battle at home against Minnesota now awaits.
Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks fought admirably against TCU but couldn’t quite get enough stops. It'll be interesting to see if they can bounce back against a reeling Oklahoma team.
Kansas State Wildcats (+2500)
The Wildcats survived a tricky road game in Ames and now enter the bye week with plenty of momentum heading into the stretch run.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Gophers were idle last week and now head to Champaign with a chance to take control of the Big Ten West.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (+1800)
The Bulldogs came away with another big home victory, eliminating Arkansas in the process. Now, they head on a two-game road trip to Lexington and Tuscaloosa. Buckle up.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Drake Maye continues to put up video game numbers. The Tar Heels appear to be the class of the ACC’s Coastal Division.
NC State Wolfpack (+2000)
NC State found a way to win a tight one over Florida State at home on Saturday night. It now has a chance to hand Syracuse its first loss of the season.
Oregon Ducks (+1000)
The Ducks picked up another dominant win over Arizona on Saturday. It's been an impressive turnaround following the blowout loss to Georgia in Week 1.
Texas Longhorns (+1600)
It was quite the Red River Showdown for the Longhorns. This is the best two-loss team in the country, in my opinion, and Texas will be a really interesting case if it keeps on winning.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake is also idle this week, but the Deacs are an interesting team to monitor the rest of the way with a very manageable schedule.
Would Need a Miracle (16)
It’s hard to see a path to the playoff for any group listed below. To have a chance, any team in this tier would need to be perfect the rest of the way, and then get a little help in other leagues.
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