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As I do every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.
Ultimately, my primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.
I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately, so make sure you're following along there for plays early in the week that may move. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each wager to and purposefully waited on most this week until they were more widely available.
Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my nine favorite Week 8 spots, starting with a Big 12 clash at noon and finishing up with another late-night matchup.
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 40-25-2 (61.5%)
- Overall: 263-203-5 (56.4%)
Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Week 8.
College Football Predictions, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Cincinnati +10.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UCF +7 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | South Carolina ML -122 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Minnesota +7 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | North Texas ML -125 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Bowling Green +3.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Northern Illinois +4.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Vanderbilt +11.5 |
  | 10:15 p.m. | Houston +7 |
Cincinnati +10.5 vs. Texas Tech
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FS!
Despite three straight covers following a shaky start to the season, I still maintain the Red Raiders are overrated in the market.
After a shaky start to the season, those three covers came against Sam Houston, Colorado (which outgained T,T 375-314) and Arizona State. That's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents.
Plus, almost all of those scores are a bit misleading due to some bounces that have gone Tech's way. Over that three-game stretch, the Red Raiders have benefited from nine takeaways and seven failed fourth-down attempts.
They also lead the nation in defensive touchdowns, which isn't really sustainable, especially against a quarterback like JC French IV, who has yet to throw an interception or have a turnover-worthy play.
This is just not the same caliber of team we saw run through the Big 12 with ease last season. The passing attack has regressed, and the defense is nowhere close to as dominant without a number of its best players along the front seven who now litter NFL rosters as primary contributors, including:
- LB Jacob Rodriguez
- DE David Bailey
- OLB Romello Height
- DT Lee Hunter
Last year, Tech's secondary never had to do much work since its defensive front generated such overwhelming quick pressure.
Well, with a decline in that department (particularly off the edge), the defensive backfield has started to get exposed a bit this season, especially without the steadying presence of safety Cole Wisniewski, who was the unheralded leader of the back end in 2025.
The Red Raiders can still generate interior pressure with the likes of A.J. Holmes Jr. and company, but Cincy's outstanding interior offensive line can neutralize that strength in the trenches.
That should give French enough time to find his receivers in the short passing game against a vulnerable secondary.
However, it all starts with the ground game for the Bearcats (top-30 rush rate nationally), who rank in the top 15 in both rushing yards per attempt and per game.
Cole Tabb is one of two running backs in the country (min. 25 attempts) who average over 9.0 yards per attempt, along with Colorado State's Mel Brown.
Cincy will utilize plenty of outside zone, which the Red Raiders have struggled to contain so far this season.
The Bearcats should have success on early downs and have plenty of manageable third-down situations to keep the chains moving while controlling time of possession.
Assuming Cincy can churn out yards with its heavy outside zone-based rushing attack, that should set up some easy completions off play-action (which Cincy uses at a top-15 rate nationally), where French has thrived with a nearly 80% adjusted completion percentage to go along with seven touchdowns and no interceptions.
Now, the Cincy defense has major warts, especially in the secondary.
Four of its five starters consist of G6 transfers (the Bearcats rank outside the top 100 in Pass EPA allowed and Success Rate allowed), but I just don't trust Will Hammond (who has just seven big-time throws to nine turnover-worthy plays in 2026) to consistently exploit those deficiencies.
Hammond is also basically just ignoring the left side of the field (only 11% of his attempts have gone that direction), which makes this offense easier to scout.
Following back-to-back Bearcat losses, I'm buying low on the home running 'dog catching 10.5 in a game I project at under 10, while selling a potentially fat-and-happy Tech team that I believe is still a tad overvalued.
Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech Trend
Cincinnati has gone just 3-10 ATS (23.1%) as a home 'dog of seven or more points since 2005. That includes seven straight non-covers over the past 10 seasons.
Pick: Cincinnati +10.5 or Better
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UCF +7 vs. BYU
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
Every August, I rank the best situational spots for the upcoming season. The top two on the list included Florida vs. Ole Miss and UCF vs. BYU.
While I don't expect the Knights to win 52-28 like the Gators, I do think they'll have a shot to pull off the upset against the No. 2 team in the country.
This spot is now even more amplified with the Cougars pulling off a major upset over Notre Dame in a 60-minute thriller last Saturday night.
BYU threw the kitchen sink at the Irish from a play-calling perspective and deserves all the credit in the world for that victory — although that result easily could have been flipped if not for two plays at the end of each half with the CJ Carr fumbled spike and then a potential missed PI in the end zone to end regulation (where ND got clearly robbed of one extra play).
There's a good chance the Cougars come out pretty flat for this road contest (with long travel) against a Knights team coming off a bye following consecutive competitive road losses against a pair of ranked opponents.
Don't forget UCF led Houston, 17-0, at the half on the road before falling apart late in part due to a pair of Cougars scoring drives that totaled 10 points on five net yards.
They also missed a game-tying field goal at the end of the third quarter at Oklahoma State before falling apart late following a fumble return touchdown by the Pokes, who added on another short-field touchdown.
Add it all up, and this is a spot arguably worth 5-6 points, including a juiced-up home-field advantage.
UCF could also get a bit healthier coming out of the bye on the offensive end with starting center Jacob Maiava (who has missed the past two games) being a potential massive addition.
While Alonza Barnett III may dress, the expectation is Keyone Jenkins will once again start at quarterback. He's never going to fill up the stat sheet but has been serviceable under center to date.
This is not an explosive passing attack (bottom-15 nationally), especially with Jenkins, who has gone just 4-of-16 on deep pass attempts.
The Knights will have to rely on running back Duke Watson and a short passing attack using play-action (which they utilize at a high rate) to methodically move the chains against a BYU defense that struggles to generate pressure.
That's a perfectly fine approach against a stout BYU secondary that simply doesn't allow big plays through the air (seventh nationally).
The Cougars can be a bit susceptible to explosive plays on the ground (50th nationally), which is where almost all of UCF's big gains come from (top-10 in explosive rush rate).
The Knights will have to break a few explosive runs and put together one or two methodical drives because it's highly unlikely their offense will have sustained success against an excellent BYU defense.
In reality, UCF will have to play the field-position game and rely on its very underrated defense that has already faced two of the more potent passing offenses in the country prior to the bye week.
The Knights feature a very formidable defensive line that has been very good against the run. They just don't give up explosive rushing plays (top-15 nationally) and are an excellent tackling unit (top-25, per PFF) that has excelled at shutting down opposing quarterbacks on the ground. Removing sacks, opposing quarterbacks have only rushed for 141 yards on 42 attempts (3.3 YPC).
That's a promising profile against Bear Bachmeier and a run-heavy BYU offense that will still be without star running back LJ Martin.
UCF also boasts one of the most experienced secondaries in the entire country, with its five primary contributors combining for over 7,500 career snaps. They can hold their own against a still pedestrian Cougar passing attack.
Maybe this is the week we finally see Bachmeier turn the ball over a couple of times.
He has thrown 24 touchdowns to just nine interceptions over the past two seasons despite a 17:25 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio, per PFF. He's probably overdue to throw one or two interceptions.
Lastly, there could be impactful weather in the afternoon in Orlando, which can always serve as the great equalizer, especially for a UCF offense that doesn't throw the ball deep.
Points could come at a premium (hence one of the lower totals on the board), which certainly makes the home underdog a bit more intriguing.
Keep in mind the last time we saw BYU on the road in some weather at TCU, the Cougars amassed just 216 total yards of offense and scored 17 points following a late broken run by Bachmeier.
The market is getting so much more efficient with these spots. Five years ago, we may have gotten 10 with the Knights. If this line stayed at 6.5 all week, I would've sadly had to pass, as 7 was my final buy point. Regardless of how good the spot is, the number still matters.
With the market ticking up to a touchdown spread, I'm OK backing the Knights. If BYU comes out fully focused from the jump, it could certainly win this game by 20, but I'll pay to find out.
UCF vs. BYU Trend
Since 2005, UCF has gone 9-3 ATS (75%) in the Bounce House vs. ranked foes, covering by over four points per game on average. That includes a 6-2 ATS mark as an underdog.
Pick: UCF +7 or Better
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South Carolina ML -122 vs. Tennessee
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
On paper, this is as good of a spot as you will find.
The Vols, coming off an enormous upset of Alabama (in which they definitely benefited from facing a beat-up and flat Alabama squad following the Georgia game), will play their eighth straight game to start the season against a SC squad fresh off its bye week.
There's a decent chance Tennessee comes out a little flat off the bus after such a monumental effort, but this is also a decent on-field matchup for the Gamecocks.
While Vols quarterback George MacIntyre has performed much better than freshman Faizon Brandon (who just held the ball for an eternity), he's still very limited as a passer.
Of 146 quarterbacks with at least 85 dropbacks, MacIntyre has the second-lowest aDOT (5.3) — ahead of only Akron's Cibastian Broughton's hilariously low 3.3. No other qualified quarterback has an aDOT lower than 6.2 yards.
And his deep-passing rate (20-plus yards) sits at 7.5% — third-lowest among all qualified signal callers.
That's welcome news for a struggling South Carolina pass defense that really struggles to limit explosive plays through the air (97th).
This new-look, run-first Tennessee offense simply isn't built to exploit the primary weakness of the South Carolina defense, which had major issues limiting both Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor and Alabama's Keelon Russell in that department.
South Carolina's top-25 run defense has been much stronger, which will play well in this particular matchup.
Keep in mind, the Gamecocks completely shut down Jadan Baugh and Florida's potent ground game (120 yards on 38 attempts) in a dominant road upset in their most recent game.
Plus, having a now fully healthy Dylan Stewart (who looked tremendous against Florida) should increase their negative play rate.
South Carolina's other loss came at home against Kentucky by one in overtime, but all four fourth downs and both turnovers went the Cats' way in that hard-luck defeat.
On the other side of the ball, South Carolina features an elite rushing attack (one of only seven teams averaging six or more yards per carry), which is exactly where you want to attack an excellent Tennessee defense that thrives in generating pressure and limiting explosive passing plays.
Well, this SC offense hasn't had much of an explosive aerial attack, and quarterback LaNorris Sellers has really improved in avoiding sacks this season.
SC can rely on Sellers and running back Matt Fuller on the ground against a middling Vols rush defense that ranks outside the top 100 in explosive rush rate and in the bottom 10 nationally in yards after contact allowed.
You can expect SC to hit some big ones on the ground, which should set up some shots using play-action where Sellers has been nearly flawless.
South Carolina will also get back starting center Carter Miller from injury, which will give the Gamecocks their full starting five for only the third time this season, as left tackle Jacarrius Peak also missed time to start the year.
I personally played a cheap ML but am OK playing the spread at anything under a field goal given the juicy situational spot and favorable matchup on both sides of the ball
South Carolina vs. Tennessee Trend
Josh Heupel is just 2-6 ATS as a road underdog during his tenure in Knoxville.
Pick: South Carolina ML -125 OR -2.5 or Better
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Minnesota +7 vs. Iowa
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
We have one of my favorite weekly spots that I mentioned last week with Colorado hosting Utah: a home 'dog off of a bye that got embarrassed on the road the previous year against their upcoming opponent.
Well, that's in play here with the Gophers coming out of their bye week looking to avenge a humbling 41-3 defeat in Iowa City last year.
This is an Iowa offense that has as much juice as we've seen in quite some time. The Hawkeyes will turn to Jeremy Hecklinski under center for his second straight start. He played extremely well in a dominant road win at Washington, but we've certainly seen original backups shine in their first game before.
He does have a bit more mobility, which likely fits this offense better than Hank Brown's skill set, but you have to think there was a reason he originally lost the starting gig.
Minnesota's underrated secondary and formidable pass rush led by future pro Anthony Smith can hold its own in this matchup.
The biggest wild card is Iowa's ground game, which has looked unstoppable at times but completely inept for long stretches as well.
Iowa's elite offensive line should get a push up front against a vulnerable Minnesota interior, so the question becomes: Can Minnesota create enough negative plays (top-10 in that department) to offset some of the explosive runs (which it struggles to contain) it will likely allow? That might be the key to this game.
On the other side of the ball, it's a Phil Parker defense.
While not as talented as some of his past units (especially along the defensive line), Iowa has done a tremendous job against the run, ranking in the top 10 nationally in almost every advanced metric.
The Hawkeyes have also allowed the lowest explosive run rate in the country. They should completely stymie a Gopher rushing attack that has been nonexistent this season, so that does neuter Iowa's strength a bit.
Adjusted for opponent, Minnesota has had arguably the worst P4 ground game to date, with Darius Taylor averaging a paltry 2.4 yards per attempt.
Maybe he looks a little healthier out of the bye, but I still wouldn't expect much help from the backs, especially since the interior of the offensive line took a massive hit after losing Ashton Beers to an injury without an adequate replacement to fill his void.
Parker's defenses also want to take away explosive plays through the air at all costs in order to force teams to drive the field without making mistakes against the Hawkeyes.
Well, Minnesota won't have any issues with that approach, as the Gophers just don't have a viable downfield passing game at the moment, ranking outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate.
In order to effectively sustain drives against Iowa, you need to methodically move the chains with a short-to-intermediate passing attack while sprinkling in some deep shots.
Well, that's basically all the Minnesota offense can do currently with quarterback Drake Lindsey, who has potential to play on Sundays in the future.
These teams have played pretty similar schedules, with each suffering double-digit home losses vs. ranked opponents in addition to both pulling off upsets against Michigan and Washington.
Ultimately, I just can't get to this number in what should be a lower-scoring affair where points will likely come at a premium in potential inclement weather with impactful wind gusts, which could make life even more difficult for both offenses.
I'll buy low on the Gophers following their worst performance of the season in a tricky spot at Purdue while selling high on the Hawkeyes following their best at Washington.
This is still an Iowa team that easily could've lost at home to Iowa State and had one of the most improbable wins of the entire season at Michigan.
This is a classic PJ Fleck spot at home where the Gophers have played much better recently. I expect them to keep it close throughout. Row the boat.
Minnesota vs. Iowa Trend
PJ Fleck has gone 8-3 ATS (72.7%) as a home 'dog of more than six points at Minnesota, covering by over eight points per game on average. He has won six of his past nine games outright in that role.
Pick: Minnesota +7 or Better
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North Texas -125 at Navy
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
Coming into the season, nobody thought North Texas would be this good after losing almost its entire team and staff to Oklahoma State. The Mean Green are a legitimate threat to win the American, which would be quite a feat following the offseason turnover.
New head coach Neal Brown deserves a ton of credit, as does quarterback Tayven Jackson, who's playing at an absurdly high level.
It all starts with star running back Jahiem White, who's averaging over seven yards per carry. That sets up the play-action, where Jackson has arguably been the most productive quarterback in the country this season.
Believe it or not, North Texas actually ranks in the top 10 nationally in Passing Success Rate and EPA, and it has arguably been the top G6 offense so far in 2026.
There's just no reason why Jackson can't absolutely shred a porous Navy pass defense that ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in EPA allowed.
The Mids have been very stout against the run but will just have no answers for the Mean Green's aerial assault. That's the biggest mismatch in this game by far, and the weather looks clear in Annapolis on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the North Texas defense has a similar profile. It has been downright dominant against opposing ground games but has major holes in the secondary, which has dealt with injuries at cornerback since camp.
Well, fortunately for the Mean Green, Navy has the third-highest rush rate (behind Army and Air Force, as you'd expect) in the country, so this is a very good matchup for their defense.
Plus, Brown and his staff will have an extra week to prepare for Navy's unique offense with a well-timed bye coming last week. I assume they spent almost the entire two weeks figuring out how to slow down Jackson Gutierrez's legs. He's basically been a one-man show over the past two weeks with a whopping 62 carries for 371 yards.
If this strong North Texas tackling team (third in that department, per PFF) can wrap up Gutierrez, it will cut the head off the snake of this Navy offense. That's exactly what Air Force did a few weeks back.
Coming off the bye, this is a good spot to back what I think is still an undervalued Mean Green gang in what profiles as a very favorable matchup on both sides of the ball.
Plus, I project them as favorites of over a field goal, so this checks all of the boxes even if I know Navy will put up one helluva fight at home.
North Texas vs. Navy Trend
Navy has historically only covered 45% of its games against an opponent coming off of a bye week.
Pick: North Texas ML -125 OR North Texas -2.5
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Bowling Green +3.5 at Buffalo
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I just don't think there's anything really separating these two teams, and home-field advantage in the MAC is minimal.
Buffalo did have one very surprising result against a sloppy Toledo team that had three turnovers and 15 penalties, but the Bulls have been dreadful outside of that one game.
We certainly wouldn't be getting over a field goal if Buffalo hadn't pulled out a number of close wins against shaky competition:
- beat an injury-riddled UMass team (with its third-string QB) in overtime last week
- defeated Albany at home, 21-17; the Great Danes had the ball at the 1 with a chance to win
- beat Robert Morris, 31-27
Yes, the Bulls have played two bad FCS teams and a decimated UMass squad and easily could've lost all three.
Buffalo still has one of the worst offenses in the nation (135th in Success Rate and dead last in adjusted yards per play).
While Messiah Burch has provided a spark to the ground game, the Bulls still have a dreadful offensive line (that BG's defensive line can eat up) and a lack of reliable weapons on the outside.
Keep an eye out for edge Myles Bradley, who has been an absolute menace for the Falcons with 33 pressures through seven games.
Meanwhile, BG's offense has shown flashes of life since the start of league play, where it could easily be 3-0 if not for a Hail Mary on the final play of regulation followed by a miraculous two-point conversion in overtime last week vs. Ball State.
Quarterback Jay Kastantin looked completely lost in nonconference play, but he's starting to find his groove in a completely rebuilt offense.
Over the first four games of the season, he threw only two touchdowns to two interceptions with a paltry 6.2 yards per attempt. In the three games since, he has a 5:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and increased his yards per attempt figure by almost 2.5 yards.
Buffalo wants to limit the explosive play at all costs and has excelled in doing so, but BG prefers to play in a box with one of the least explosive offenses in the country, so Buffalo's top defensive proficiency will be neutralized here.
These are just two evenly matched teams (equal net yards per play with BG having a more difficult schedule), so I'll take over a field goal with the road pup.
Bowling Green vs. Buffalo Trend
MAC home-field advantage has consistently been very overrated in the market during league play. Look no further than Bowling Green's splits.
The Falcons are 48-32-2 (60%) in road MAC games since 2005, covering by nearly five points per game on average. Conversely, they are just 27-54 (33.3%) on the road against MAC foes with a nearly identically flipped -4.8 average cover margin.
Pick: Bowling Green +3.5 or Better
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Northern Illinois +4.5 vs. Hawaii
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Mountain West Network
This is a brutal spot for the Rainbow Warriors, who fell apart late in a max effort spot vs. a beat-up New Mexico bunch on the island last week.
Hawaii has been one of the nation's most disappointing teams so far this season. Expected by some to potentially be in the mix for a conference title, Hawaii has started 1-6 and has basically been eliminated from any hope of achieving that goal.
Now, it must travel over 4,000 miles for a road date with winless NIU. I wouldn't be surprised if it completely no-shows.
And even if it does show up, this Hawaii team does nothing well. The Bows have one of the worst rushing attacks in all of college football, which will be music to the ears of the NIU defense, which has really struggled against opposing ground games.
The Huskies have especially had no answers for mobile quarterbacks, which won't be an issue against Micah Alejado, who has seemingly also regressed as a passer with an abysmal eight big-time throws to 15 turnover-worthy plays on the season, per PFF.
This is a straight dropback pass-heavy Hawaii attack (lowest play-action rate in the country, which also helps the Huskies) that really misses its star wide receivers from last season. That plays right into the strength of the NIU defense.
The NIU offense is obviously nothing to write home about, but quarterback Taron Dickens continues to get more comfortable in this new offense after transferring in late in the summer.
NIU also does have a fairly formidable rushing attack, which can have success against Hawaii's porous defense. That might actually be the biggest mismatch on paper in this particular matchup.
Now, it's worth noting that NIU has some major injury uncertainty with the two biggest names to watch being Dickens and stud running back Telly Johnson. Both are listed as questionable, but I'm expecting each to suit up.
If one or both can't go, that changes the equation quite a bit, but I'm willing to take the risk by backing the desperate Huskies in one of their very few realistic opportunities for a win in a primo situational spot, even if they did burn me with an amazing number vs. Air Force a few weeks ago.
In fairness, Air Force looked great once again with backup quarterback Evan Medders last week vs. UNLV.
Northern Illinois vs. Hawaii Trend
Since 2005, Hawaii has gone just 26-43-2 (37.7%) in true road games. Only Kansas has been less profitable over that stretch among all FBS teams.
Pick: Northern Illinois +4.5 (Play to +4)
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Vanderbilt +11.5 at Kentucky
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
The Cats got the best of me last week at Oklahoma in a game that flipped on a John Mateer interception (what's new?) when his arm got hit while throwing a deep ball.
At the time, Oklahoma was driving in UK territory with a 13-7 lead despite running a bizarre fake field goal with a holder jump pass on fourth-and-2 from the 10-yard line earlier in the game.
Outside of Kentucky's scripted opening drive, the Cats did absolutely nothing on offense and were getting dominated until they added a touchdown off that interception, followed by a late pick-six.
The Cats were actually outgained, 346-230, but benefited from a +4 turnover margin, which has been the story lately.
Don't get me wrong. Will Stein has turned out to be an amazing hire and should be in the thick of the race for Coach of the Year. Look how much Oregon misses him on offense!
However, there's no denying Kentucky has been pretty fortunate over the past month. The Wildcats are just a few plays away from having three or four losses on the year, with two of their victories coming in overtime on two-point conversions.
Now, after those three hard-fought victories (and prior to the bye week), Kentucky heads back to Lexington for a potential flat spot against a Vanderbilt team that just lost at home to Arkansas. Talk about buying low!
During their current three-game SEC winning streak (all of which came by one-possession), the Cats have had some beneficial fourth-down variance and a whopping +8 turnover margin.
And across SEC play, Kentucky has a +10 turnover margin, while Vanderbilt sits at -6 during its 0-4 start in league play. There's definitely some looming regression in the turnover department that could work in the Commodores' favor.
After three straight 60-minute efforts that resulted in three comeback upset wins over LSU, South Carolina and Oklahoma, it's natural to expect Kentucky to come out a little flat at home vs. lowly Vanderbilt prior to the bye week.
This is also a much different role for the Cats as the hunted instead of the hunter.
Now, maybe Kentucky comes out fired up with revenge on its mind from last season's blowout loss. And maybe the Dores are completely gassed, as they will also be playing their eighth straight game prior to their bye week.
But following four straight losses, I'd expect Clark Lea to have his troops ready in maybe the last realistic chance Vanderbilt has at picking up another win this season.
The Commodores have also been a reliable road pup in recent seasons, as they usually excel at limiting the overall number of possessions.
Their blitz-heavy defense can generate pressure, which has really given quarterback Kenny Minchey (13:1 TD-to-INT ratio despite a 1:5 BTT-to-TWP ratio) fits this year.
Minchey's completion percentage falls off a cliff under pressure (43%) compared to when kept clean (75%), and he takes too many sacks, which is part of the reason Kentucky has struggled so much on third downs.
That could certainly help kill some Kentucky drives. Vandy will also have a major special teams edge (ninth in SP+ vs. Kentucky's 120th rank), which could swing a cover in its favor.
This is just a classic buy-low/sell-high with a potential fat-and-happy Kentucky squad that somehow sits at 4-1 in SEC play with a -8 point differential.
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Trend
Since 2005, Vanderbilt is the second-most profitable road conference underdog. Over that span, the Commodores have an impressive 51-31-2 ATS record (62.2%), covering by over a field goal per game on average. They have covered 10-of-11 in that role and have also gone 39-21-1 ATS as a double-digit road pup against SEC foes.
Pick: Vanderbilt +11.5 (Play to +10.5)
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Houston +7 at Utah
10:15 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
In last week's piece, I said Utah was currently the most overrated team in the country. Did the Utes do anything to change my mind last week? Absolutely not.
They arguably should've lost outright as 15-point favorites against a bad Colorado team. The Buffaloes actually had a 70% post-game win expectancy and outgained Utah by over two yards per play. Yikes!
Keep in mind, Utah had a misleading final score the week prior against Kansas as well.
Utah still hasn't played a soul this season with the easiest strength of schedule of any team in the top 20. What is its best win? Iowa State?
The Utes do have a very unique and explosive offense that frequently utilizes two quarterbacks on the field at the same time. Wayshawn Parker is also one of the nation's most underappreciated running backs.
They will undoubtedly put up points against a Houston defense that has some clear areas of weakness.
The Cougars don't really generate a consistent pass rush, and their linebackers have major issues in coverage. They've also struggled to contain outside runs and explosive passes at times, so the Utes have clear paths to offensive success here.
However, the more Utah puts on tape with its unique offense, the easier it becomes for defenses to prep for. And Houston certainly has a clear coaching edge in this matchup. (I still can't believe Morgan Scalley let Utah throw it on third-and-long last week with a minute to go and Colorado out of timeouts!)
Houston's overall run defense grades out well, which is important against Utah (see Colorado last week), and its cornerbacks (especially with future pro Jalen Mayo back from injury this week) match up well with Utah's receivers on the outside.
With that said, I don't expect Houston to shut down Utah's offense, but I do believe the Cougars can match scores.
Houston quarterback Conner Weigman has finally reached his full potential and is playing at an All-American level, which not enough people are talking about. On the season, he has a 20:2 TD-to-INT ratio and ranks fourth in QBR.
He has also done it against a schedule that has been much more difficult than what Devon Dampier has faced at Utah. Per Sagarin, Houston's strength of schedule ranks 36th compared to Utah's 73rd.
Weigman can still be vulnerable under pressure, but he's playing behind an elite offensive line that should give him ample time in the pocket against a nonexistent Utah pass rush that generated only five pressures on 33 Isaac Wilson dropbacks last week.
Utah's run defense has been very stingy this season, but it has mainly loaded the box against hopeless quarterbacks. Here are the FBS signal-callers it has faced this season:
- Iowa State's Jaylen Raynor
- Colorado's Isaac Wilson
- Kansas' Isaiah Marshall
- Utah State's Grady Brosterhous
- Arkansas' KJ Jackson
Remember all of the issues it had defending the run last season against offenses with a pulse? I'm not sure those are fixed unless they continue to load the box, which they likely won't get away with against a Houston passing attack that ranks in the top five nationally in both EPA and Success Rate.
So, I'd expect the Cougars to also find more success on the ground than the advanced metrics may indicate.
I do respect the juiced home-field advantage at Rice-Eccles here. It's also a late kick, which favors the Utes as well.
However, Houston has been absolutely nails on the road under Fritz and already went into a hostile environment at Texas Tech and came up inches short of forcing overtime.
I just don't see much separating these teams, so I'll happily take the touchdown with a much more battle-tested team and superior coach that has an offense that can certainly match the Utes score for score if need be.
Houston vs. Utah Trend
During his time at Houston, head coach Willie Fritz has been a road warrior. He has gone 8-3 ATS in Big 12 play away from home and has covered seven straight in that role.
Pick: Houston +7 (Play to +6)
