College Football Sharp Betting Picks (Nov. 29): Pros Hit 3 Friday Games, Including Arkansas State vs. South Alabama
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Logan Bonner
- With a 15-game college football slate throughout the day Friday, sharps have found three games offering value on the point spread.
- Among those three are some of the most highly-anticipated matchups of the day, including Virginia Tech vs. Virginia and Iowa vs. Nebraska.
Friday’s 15-game Week 14 appetizer is not without a few notable matchups — Iowa-Nebraska and Virginia Tech-Virginia, among them. It’s also not without a bit of sharp action, and all three of those “marquee” games have seen their fair share of line movement as a result of professional money.
Let’s take a look at how the pros have shaped the betting market for Friday’s games.
Virginia Tech vs. Virginia
12 p.m. ET | ABC
Oftentimes the simplest way to spot sharp action is by seeking out the biggest line moves on a given slate. Public bettors are certainly able to affect lines, but generally speaking, the bigger the move, the more likely that there was some sharp action involved.
With that in mind, the fact that Virginia Tech opened at +1 and is now -2.5 would suggest that sharps are all over the Hokies, but there’s a little bit more to this story.
A bit of professional action hit Tech early in the week, as Sports Insights’ Bet Signals triggered three steam moves at lines of +1 and -2.5. That got the line up to -3, and that’s when sharp bettors really pounced.
A total of 13 Bet Signals have hit Virginia, all of which have come at the key number of +3, meaning sharps are requiring that field-goal spread to feel confident in a UVA bet.
To this point, 30% of bets accounting for 55% of money being wagered have landed on the Cavs, which also serves as an indication of smart money (since sharps are more likely to be the ones making bigger bets).
Sharp angle: Virginia (moved from +3 to +2.5)
Iowa vs. Nebraska
2:30 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
No. 17 Iowa taking on an unranked Nebraska as less than a touchdown favorite has most bettors unsurprisingly going with the Hawkeyes. And much like the Virginia Tech-UVA matchup, the line has moved toward the popular side, but that doesn’t quite tell the story of the sharp action in this game.
After opening at -4.5, Iowa was bet up to -6 behind a 68% backing, and that’s the number at which sharps decided to set a roadblock.
Five Bet Signals have hit the home team — all of which have come at +6 — and Nebraska’s minority backing has generated 52% of the money, getting oddsmakers to ease back to +5.5.
Sharp angle: Nebraska (moved from +6 to +5.5)
Arkansas State vs. South Alabama
5 p.m. ET | ESPN+
It certainly won’t have the same number of viewers (or bettors), but the action on this game has been as sharp as any on Friday’s slate.
With South Alabama’s one-win season likely serving as a reason to fade, public bettors are all over 7-4 Arkansas State, even with the opening spread being close to two touchdowns.
The 25% of bettors behind South Alabama, though, have generated an impressive 58% of actual money wagered on the spread, and six Bet Signals have hit the Jaguars (at lines ranging from +11.5 to +13.5).
As a result, this number is now down to a consensus +11 across the market.
Sharp angle: South Alabama (moved from +13 to +11)