CFB Sharp Betting Picks: Pros Hitting Kansas State vs. Texas Tech, 3 Other Saturday Games

CFB Sharp Betting Picks: Pros Hitting Kansas State vs. Texas Tech, 3 Other Saturday Games article feature image
Credit:

Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jett Duffey

  • Sharp bettors are finding value on several games across the Saturday college football slate.
  • Find out how they're betting four of those games below, including Minnesota vs. Northwestern and Kansas State vs. Texas Tech.

Most college football fans will be turning their focus to Penn State vs. Ohio State, and rightfully so, but sharps bettors are looking elsewhere for value on the 58-game slate.

That’s not to say they haven’t hit some notable games, as they’ve made moves on Minnesota vs. Northwestern (which will be one of the most heavily bet matchups), as well as Pitt-Virginia Tech and Kansas State-Texas Tech.

Minnesota vs. Northwestern

12 p.m. ET | ABC

Among the least popular plays of the entire slate, Northwestern has garnered just 19% of bets against one-loss Minnesota, which will be playing for a spot in the Big Ten title game next weekend against Wisconsin (assuming Wisconsin also wins this week).

Perhaps for that reason, sharps are taking a liking to the Wildcats at home.

Minnesota opened around a 12-point favorite at most books (and even as low as -9 at the earliest books), but the heavy majority of bets landing on the Gophers sent the line into the two-touchdown range. That’s when sharps stepped in.

Twelve Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — triggered by market-moving sharp action — have landed on Northwestern at line of +14 and +13.5, showing the pros don’t necessarily need the key number to feel comfortable taking Northwestern.

Sharp angle: Northwestern (line moving between +13.5 and +14) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Texas State vs. Appalachian State

2:30 p.m. ET | ESPN+

It’s certainly not one of the marquee games (of which there aren’t many, anyway) on Saturday’s schedule, but sharps are still finding plenty of value on this Sun Belt over/under.

The 62% of bettors on the under have accounted for 89% of actual money, serving as the first sign of professional action (since sharps are more likely to be the ones making bigger bets).

Confirming that to be the case, five SI Bet Signals — at lines ranging from 53 to 51 — have hit the under, convincing oddsmakers to drop this line from openers as high as 55 (though most came later around 53) down to 50.5.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 53 to 50.5) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech

3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2

A similar situation is taking place in this ACC matchup, which should, at the very least, attract a few more eyeballs. As it stands now, most of those eyeballs belong to folks who will be rooting for defense, as 84% of the public has taken a liking to the under.

And while sharps often end up going against the popular side, in this case, they’re in agreement.


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Once again, the bet-vs.-money split has pointed toward the sharp side, with those 84% of bets making up 97% of actual money.

In this case, four SI Bet Signals ranging from under 48.5 to 46.5 have brought the total from an opener of 49.5 down to 44.5.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 49.5 to 44.5) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Kansas State vs. Texas Tech

7 p.m. ET | FS1

The final play on Saturday’s sharp card is much easier to spot, in that the line has moved away from the popular side. Known as reverse line movement, that’s generally a giveaway of sharp action landing on the contrarian play.

Texas Tech opened as a 1-point home dog, but is now favored by 2.5 despite attracting only 27% of bets. With those bets accounting for 38% of money, it’s again made clear how bigger bettors are seeing this spread, and SI’s Bet Signals have again revealed those bigger bettors to be of the sharper variety.

Three moves have been recorded — two at the opener of +1, and another at -1.5 — providing context as to why sportsbooks felt the need to flip the plus- to a minus-sign.

Sharp angle: Texas Tech (moved from +1 to -2.5) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]