College Football Sharp Report: Pros Betting LSU-Florida, 4 Other Week 6 Games

Oct 06, 2018 7:03 AM EDT
  • Before placing your Week 6 college football bets, you might want to know which bets sharps are making.
  • Sharps are bettors with long track records of consistent success.
  • Their favorite plays this week include LSU-Florida and Utah-Stanford.

If you’ve stopped by this sharp report before, you know the spiel by now. In case you haven’t, here’s the deal:

“Sharps” are bettors with long track records of consistent success. And when I say long, I’m talking several years — decades, even. When a sharp places a bet, books take notice and often adjust their lines as a result.

By tracking these line moves, we can determine which bets sharps are making, assuming we have a few more bits of information — which we do.

The tools at The Action Network and Sports Insights allow us to track each time a wager comes in that changes the market price of a given bet (this is called a steam move).

We also track the percentage of tickets being placed on each side of a game, as well as the percentage of actual dollars. Comparing those figures to the line movement is one of the easiest and most effective ways to locate sharp action.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the Week 6 games drawing the most action from wiseguys.


>> All odds as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college football odds and track your bets.


Maryland @ Michigan

12 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 52.5 to 47.5)

Perhaps the easiest way to identify sharp action is reverse line movement — when the line moves away from the more popular bet.

In this case, though, the under is actually the slightly more popular bet, attracting 57% of tickets. But there are still a few giveaways that it’s the sharp play.

First, a total is unlikely to fall five full points when it received only 57% of bets.

Second, those 57% of bets have accounted for 82% of dollars wagered, meaning that the bigger wagers — the ones more likely to be made by sharps — are on the under.

And third, the under has triggered three steam moves, meaning that on three separate occasions, a bet at one sportsbook caused the total to fall across the entire market.

Syracuse @ Pittsburgh

12:20 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Pittsburgh (moved from +6 to +3)

Sharps have been hammering Pitt all week. Even though Syracuse has dominated the ticket count — receiving 84% of bets in this game — the line has fallen three points to the key number of 3.

Pittsburgh has been on the receiving end of 11 steam moves, more than we’ve tracked for any other team this weekend.

Ohio @ Kent State

3:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Kent State (moved from +12.5 to +12)

It might not be must-watch TV, but as long as sharps see value on a game, they’ll bet it.

In this case, that value has been on Kent State.

Early public action on Ohio brought this line into the two-touchdown range, but since then wiseguys have been all over the Golden Flashes.

They’ve only picked up a quarter of bets being placed, but their line has now fallen from its opener as those have accounted for 44% of dollars wagered.

Kent State also has triggered eight steam moves. While three took place at +14, the rest have all come below the key number, a good sign for anyone looking to hop on board.

Now on to a game you’re more likely to watch.

LSU @ Florida

3:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Florida (moved from +3 to +2)

This game is on pace to be the most heavily bet of the weekend, and 68% of those bets are landing on LSU.

Still, the Tigers have fallen from -3 to -2 as sharps have been hammering Florida throughout the week.

The Gators’ 32% of bets have made up for 49% of the money being wagered, and they’ve drawn nine steam moves to fall off the key number of +3.

Utah @ Stanford

10:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Utah (moved from +5 to +3.5)

In the final game involving a top-25 team on Saturday night, Stanford opened as a five-point favorite at home. The Cardinal have also been the more popular bet, attracting 64% of bettors, but their line has fallen from -5 down to -3.5.

Sharps have been steadily betting Utah, as illustrated by the 56% of dollars landing on that side. The Utes have also been steamed at CRIS, one of the sharpest offshore books.

Credit:

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Florida QB Feleipe Franks

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue
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