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Living in Florida limits some of the ways I can attack the college football betting landscape, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities out there. Underdog is one of the places where I can take advantage of my college football research through player projections, and that’s what I’ll be focusing on here.
Week 6 was a rough one, and there’s no way around it. Noah Fifita did his part and crushed his passing yards number, but it was Stachan, not Jadan Bray, who benefited from the matchup.
Austin Simmons followed up a strong performance against Florida with his worst passing game of the season, taking Donovan Olugbode down with him. Dylan Raiola was not accurate, and Evan Stewart saw 8 targets, but only 5 receptions.
Sometimes the matchup and the numbers point in the right direction, but the results just don't follow. That's exactly what happened last week. The goal this week is to bounce back, trust the data, and find the matchups that give us the best chance to get back on track.
For this slate, there are five numbers that stand out to me, with several that I’m comfortable pushing well beyond the current projection.
Florida vs Texas Picks
Every QB Florida has faced this season has thrown for at least 270 yards, including LaNorris Sellers and Byrum Brown, who are much worse passers than Arch Manning. While Arch has struggled to take care of the football, he's averaged 9.2 yards per attempt in SEC play, and that's against two of the best defensive minds in college football: Brent Venables and Jim Knowles.
I think the path for Manning to clear 255.5 passing yards is through Cam Coleman.
On top of allowing a ton of passing yards, Florida has consistently struggled to contain opposing teams' primary receiving options. Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode both went over 90 yards; Chas Nimrod and Keshaun Singleton each cleared 90 yards; Deuce Alexander had 134 yards; and even Nyck Harbor finished with 83 receiving yards.
Coleman is coming off a five-reception, 110-yard, one-touchdown performance against Oklahoma, and I think he's in a great spot to continue that momentum.
Picks: Arch Manning Higher than 255.5 Yards Passing + Cam Coleman Higher than 65.5 Yards Receiving
Alabama vs Tennessee Pick
With George MacIntyre on the field, Staley has out-targeted Mike Matthews 15-8 and commands a 32.6% target share. Last season, Staley caught 10 passes for 92 yards against this Alabama defense, and we've seen plenty of receivers find success against them this year.
Georgia had four players surpass 40 receiving yards; Kentucky's top two options both cleared 40; Mississippi State and ECU each had two players go over 50; and Florida State had four players finish with at least 60 yards. Staley and Matthews rarely come off the field, but Staley should be the primary beneficiary of the easier targets with his 5.6-yard aDOT.
Given his usage with MacIntyre under center and Alabama's struggles defending multiple receiving options, I like Staley's chances of clearing this number.
Pick: Baylon Staley Higher than 38.5 Yards Receiving
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Arizona State vs Texas Tech Pick
Omarion Miller has seen at least seven targets in every game this season, including three games with nine targets and one with 15. Against Texas Tech, I expect Kenny Dillingham to lean heavily on the quick passing game to help Cutter Boley find a rhythm.
I don't think Dillingham will trust his offensive line to hold up in pass protection, and I expect them to struggle running the football as well. That should create plenty of opportunities for Miller, who has a 34% targets-per-route run rate and an aDOT of just 5.9 yards this season.
His role in the short passing game makes him a great fit for how I expect this offense to attack Texas Tech.
Pick: Omarion Miller Higher Than 5.5 Receptions
Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech Pick
The reason I like combining these props is that Jeffrey Overton gets involved as a pass catcher, and this Georgia Tech defense has been awful at defending RBs both on the ground and out of the backfield.
Just last week, they held Nate Sheppard under 100 rushing yards, but he added 91 receiving yards to finish with 190 total yards. DeSean Bishop also put up 162 total yards against this defense, while his backup added another 98.
Overton has been held under 110 total yards just three times this season. One came in a game where he had 104 yards on only nine touches, another was against a Pittsburgh defense that has been elite against the run, and the third was against Old Dominion in a 44-21 win where he saw just 18 touches.
I expect Virginia Tech to bounce back after two straight losses and make a bigger effort to feature Overton. Even last weekend, he turned 16 touches into 113 total yards. With how explosive he's been, there's no reason he shouldn't be getting 20+ touches every week, and this matchup sets up perfectly for him to take advantage.
Pick: Jeffery Overton Higher than 107.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
