If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
This Saturday’s Big Ten battle between No. 4 Ohio State and undefeated No. 5 Indiana carries historic stakes in Bloomington. The Buckeyes enter on a four-game winning streak, seeking to assert their traditional dominance over the Hoosiers after last December's painful Big Ten Championship loss.
While Polymarket traders heavily favor the Buckeyes as -3.5 points favorites based on decades of historical dominance, this clash presents Indiana as a highly compelling underdog.
Before we continue, be sure to use our Polymarket promo code and download the Action Network App to get the best picks and props. Now, here’s my Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 17, 2026.
Ohio State vs Indiana Prediction
Ohio State is the clear favorite among traders with a 63% implied probability on the moneyline and a -3.5 spread. And I get it, not only do they have a solid squad that is hitting its stride at the perfect time, but they also have momentum on their side with decades of historical dominance over their rival. However, trends and streaks are made to be broken, and I believe this Saturday is the Hoosiers' time to shine.
The best trade for this game is backing Indiana to cover +3.5 on the spread. I’d even go as far as backing them to cover +2.5 at 43 cents a share, though that might just be me getting overly enthusiastic about the Hoosiers this season.
When it comes to Totals, the consensus sits around 50.5 points, but I believe going with the Under is the most compelling move in this context. Lower-scoring environments tend to favor the underdog, which aligns perfectly with my theory that Indiana can turn the tide on its miserable historical record against Ohio State.
In a tight, possession-oriented match where both defensive fronts aim to limit big plays, a projected 27–24 or 24–20 final score is totally plausible.
- Ohio State vs. Indiana Pick: INDIANA +3.5 on the Spread, Under 50.5 Total Points
Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Odds
Ohio State vs Indiana College Football Preview
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview:
The No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) head into their upcoming Week 7 matchup on a four-game winning streak. Since their razor-thin 24-23 road defeat to Texas in Week 2, Ohio State has re-established its dominance across Big Ten.
The Buckeyes recently dismantled Maryland 45-16 in Columbus, anchored by explosive offensive outings from quarterback Julian Sayin (242 passing yards, 4 TDs) and star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.
While Ohio State’s offense ranks among the national leaders in points per game, the right side of the offensive line has seen continuous rotations due to depth management, though tackle Phillip Daniels is expected to practice in full ahead of Saturday's game.
History is on Ohio's side as the team holds a massive lead in this rivalry. While their overall streak was snapped last year when the Hoosiers pulled off one of the biggest upsets in program history, Ohio State still holds an active 38-year undefeated streak at Indiana's Memorial Stadium.
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview:
Indiana (6-0) enters their upcoming Week 7 blockbuster undefeated and operating at an elite level under head coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers' offense ranks among the nation's most lethal, averaging 40.2 points per game while holding opponents to just 11.8 points defensively.
Unlike the Buckeyes, Indiana comes into this Top-5 clash with a remarkably healthy roster. Primary cornerback A.J. Harris and edge rusher Daniel Ndukwe both returned to action against Nebraska, re-establishing Indiana's starting defensive rotation.
Despite all these strengths and home-field advantage, traders are pricing Indiana as heavy underdogs, a line driven primarily by the historical track record we analyzed earlier. Ohio State's dominance has been absolute, and traders seem unable to look past that history, overlooking the fact that Indiana pulled off a historic 13–10 upset over the Buckeyes in last December’s Big Ten Championship Game.
Ohio State vs Indiana Pick, Betting Analysis
I don't think the Polymarket board accurately reflects Indiana's immense potential. Last December's victory was significant not just for securing the conference title, but for proving they are capable of taking down a program that has caused them decades of headaches.
This rematch offers a unique opportunity to snap their other major drought: the lack of home wins in the series. Backing the Hoosiers on the moneyline is the way to go.
Pick: Indiana Hoosiers
