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The Kennesaw State Owls take on the Missouri State Bears in Springfield, MO. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Kennesaw State is favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -158. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Kennesaw State vs Missouri State prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, October 14, 2026.
Kennesaw State vs Missouri State Prediction
- Kennesaw State vs Missouri State Pick: Kennesaw State -3 or Better
My Missouri State vs. Kennesaw State best bet is on the Owls to win and cover this weeknight road game. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
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Kennesaw State vs Missouri State Odds
| Kennesaw State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 52.5 -108o / -112u | -154 |
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -122 | 52.5 -108o / -112u | +128 |
- Kennesaw State vs Missouri State point spread: Kennesaw State -3.5 (+100), Missouri State +3.5 (-122)
- Kennesaw State vs Missouri State over/under: 52.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Kennesaw State vs Missouri State moneyline: Kennesaw State -154, Missouri State +128
Kennesaw State vs Missouri State College Football Preview
Kennesaw State Owls Betting Preview: A Hair Shy of Decent
While by no means "good" — Kennesaw State is 1-4 with two one-score losses to mediocre teams, including at Arkansas State — the Owls have a formula that might just work this season in Conference USA.
The offense doesn't do anything exceptionally poorly, and Rickie Collins has found his proper level of football.
The defense is much worse off, but the Owls' kryptonite is against patient passers who take chunk yards when available.
In terms of CUSA competition, it's a roster with average line talent.
And despite that 1-4 record, you can spot five winnable spots on this schedule (assuming no drastic changes), and this could be a team an upset away from bowl eligibility. Kennesaw State has its two most difficult remaining opponents at home (Liberty and FIU), a place where the Owls perform well.
The biggest issue has been that Kennesaw State hasn't put together a complete game yet this season. In an exceptionally narrow 27-26 loss to Jacksonville State last week, Kennesaw committed 137 yards in penalties.
The game prior, Kennesaw went 0-for-2 on a couple critical fourth downs and missed a 32-yard chip shot to tie the game late. Excuses, surely, but this team is a gust of wind away from 3-2.
Its composite power rating indicates the same. Using a blend of FPI, SP+, Sagarin and other reputable models, Kennesaw State rates ahead of 4-2 Western Michigan and a touch behind 4-2 South Alabama.
Yet a current line at Missouri State — one that's moving in favor of the Bears — suggests this team is far worse. There seems to be a disconnect with a team capable in at least three of four phases (run and pass offense, run and pass defense).
Kennesaw State doesn't do anything exceptionally well, but it doesn't do much exceptionally terribly, and that'll get you by in Conference USA.
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview: The Bad and the Ugly
As time goes on, the picture of this team's resume becomes much clearer. After Week 3, I came away more impressed with Missouri State's near-win over visiting Marshall thanks to some late-game heroics and a razor-thin margin of error, including zero points on two separate red zone trips.
But as games have played out, it's clear this was a flat-out miss at what should've been a win against a bad opponent. Marshall has out-scored its opponents by nine total points in its three wins and has been out-scored 79 points in its three losses.
Casey Woods is juggling quarterbacks. Starter Skyler Locklear suffered an injury last week, but it appears he's potentially in the process of getting replaced by Henry Belin IV anyway.
Belin is a much more imposing figure (6-foot-3, 225 pounds compared to Locklear's listed — and likely embellished — 5-foot-11, 190-pound frame) and he's a much better intermediate passer. However, the offense (119th in success rate and 114th in points per drive) isn't much better either way.
On offense, it's all-or-nothing on any given play (124th on non-explosive EPA Per Play) while the defense does a good job containing explosives.
However, only Colorado State allows a higher success rate to opponents. Due in part to a virtually nonexistent pass rush and in part to a vulnerable secondary, Missouri State allows its opponents to march down the field with ease.
This is a bad football team, and — based on recent lines — it's clear the market isn't quite up to speed with just how bad we're dealing with.
Kennesaw State vs Missouri State Pick, Betting Analysis
Very few times am I going to look at market moves and call them so decisively wrong, but I'm taking my stand here.
The movement in favor of Missouri State is a clean market misread. Based solely on power rating, Kennesaw State should be favored by closer to 6 than 3, but I personally adjust Missouri State down a field goal because I believe those ratings are a bit too bullish on this team.
Perhaps the move comes in response to injury news surrounding Missouri State quarterback Skyler Locklear, but he was benched last game regardless of health.
Henry Belin IV offers more upside in physicality and downfield shots, but that offense was stagnant under him anyway.
Against Western Kentucky — a likely-ascending team with a putrid defense — Missouri State was incapable of finding success or the end zone. That's reason for significant concern.
Missouri State is a bad football team with the worst individual unit of any on this field in its defense. With potential delays and disruption to weather, I'm looking to whichever team can get its offense started again with dependable down-to-down production and that's Kennesaw State.
Kennesaw sits around the top-30 in non-explosive EPA Per Play, while Missouri State is almost entirely dependent on explosives.
Good luck finding those explosive plays in rain and with stop-and-start play possible.
Pick: Kennesaw State -3 or Better
