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The Week 7 midweek CUSAction continues with two more games on Wednesday.
Just like yesterday, our college football experts — Road to CFB and Joshua Nunn — came through with two picks, this time for Missouri State vs. Kennesaw State and Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky on Wednesday.
Let's dive into their Wednesday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for October 14.
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Wednesday College Football Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Missouri State vs. Kennesaw State Pick
By RoadToCFB
Very few times am I going to look at market moves and call them so decisively wrong, but I'm taking my stand here.
The movement in favor of Missouri State is a clean market misread. Based solely on power rating, Kennesaw State should be favored by closer to 6 than 3, but I personally adjust Missouri State down a field goal because I believe those ratings are a bit too bullish on this team.
Perhaps the move comes in response to injury news surrounding Missouri State quarterback Skyler Locklear, but he was benched last game regardless of health.
Henry Belin IV offers more upside in physicality and downfield shots, but that offense was stagnant under him anyway.
Against Western Kentucky — a likely-ascending team with a putrid defense — Missouri State was incapable of finding success or the end zone. That's reason for significant concern.
Missouri State is a bad football team with the worst individual unit of any on this field in its defense. With potential delays and disruption to weather, I'm looking to whichever team can get its offense started again with dependable down-to-down production and that's Kennesaw State.
Kennesaw sits around the top-30 in non-explosive EPA Per Play, while Missouri State is almost entirely dependent on explosives.
Good luck finding those explosive plays in rain and with stop-and-start play possible.
Pick: Kennesaw State -3 or Better
| |
Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with Western Kentucky being favored by 1.5 points and has bounced around between a pick'em, -1 and -2.5, which is available as of writing. The total sits at 52.5.
I like Sam Houston +2.5.
Western Kentucky is being outgained this year by 176 yards per game on the road, and the run defense can't be counted on.
New Mexico State, which has one of the worst rushing attacks in the college leagues, shredded this defense for 6.1 yards per attempt and a couple of rushing scores.
Sam Houston has a pair of capable running backs who can find space on the ground. I expect the Bearkats to move the ball and find the red zone more frequently than they have all season. That will lead to points.
Western Kentucky wants to throw the football, but Sam Houston has been excellent against the pass this year. The secondary ranks 16th nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and 23rd in explosiveness.
Western Kentucky has finally settled on a quarterback in Brock Glenn, but the design of the offense is to garner explosive plays.
The Tops rank just 124th nationally in Passing Success Rate, and if the chunk plays aren't there, this offense can't move the football.
We saw Sam Houston shut down the effectiveness of the Troy passing game in the opening game of the season, and the Bearkats defense followed that up by frustrating Tulsa while taking a lead into the half.
This defense also allowed just one offensive touchdown in the first half against Texas Tech, and there's some talent.
I expect this team to play good football at home, and for the offense to cash once it crosses midfield — something it couldn't do last week against Liberty.
Pick: Sam Houston +2.5 OR Sam Houston ML +105
