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Kansas State vs West Virginia Odds, Picks: Mountaineers to Shine in Last Home Game

Kansas State vs West Virginia Odds, Picks: Mountaineers to Shine in Last Home Game article feature image

Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: West Virginia running back Tony Mathis Jr.

  • Kansas State will get into the Big 12 title game with a win on Saturday and a Texas loss vs. Kansas.
  • Will the Wildcats earn the victory and also the cover against West Virginia on the road on Saturday?
  • Doug Ziefel explains it all and gives out his best bet for this matchup.

Kansas State vs West Virginia Odds

Saturday, Nov. 19
2 p.m. ET
Kansas State Odds
-110o / -110u
West Virginia Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The games are dwindling down, which only makes this week matter more as the Kansas State Wildcats hit the road to face the West Virginia Mountaineers.

The Wildcats have been one of the many surprises out of the Big 12 this year. They enter this matchup 7-3 on the year and 5-2 in conference play. That record is good enough for No. 2 in the conference behind TCU, which means they would be in line for a Big 12 Championship appearance if they were to win out.

However, their opponent in this matchup has plenty of motivation to feed off.

West Virginia has had a disappointing 2022 campaign, as the addition of JT Daniels has not made the impact many thought it would. Although, the season is far from over for the Mountaineers, as they must win out to become bowl eligible.

While this matchup and their next aren't cakewalks, they will be in an advantageous spot to keep their season alive.

Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State has a prolific rushing offense, and it's easy to see why when Deuce Vaughn is in the backfield. The junior running back has had a tremendous season, already rushing for over 1,000 yards and racking up close to 300 yards receiving.

However, the K-State ground attack will be missing another vital piece as quarterback Adrian Martinez is set to miss this game with an undisclosed injury. Martinez's absence is a significant loss. He ranks second on the team in rushing and is a weapon around the goal line.

However, they've handed the reigns over to Will Howard, who is a very experienced backup.

Howard has performed well the past two weeks in relief of Martinez, as he's tossed seven touchdown passes without an interception while completing 63% of his passes.

Howard should find plenty of success against this West Virginia secondary. The Mountaineers rank 126th in yards per pass allowed and 84th in opponent completion percentage.

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West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a must-win game for West Virginia, and if it's going to come through, it'll need whoever is under center to step up. I say "whoever" because JT Daniels was benched last week in favor of backup Garrett Greene.

Now, Greene had some success against Oklahoma, but he completed only 55% of his passes.

However, the Mountaineers may be able to find some success on the ground with Tony Mathis Jr. The sophomore running back has been inconsistent but still averages 4.5 yards per carry.

Holes should open up for Mathis, as the Wildcats rank 111th in Defensive Line Yards. Where that edge will mean the most is in the red zone.

The Mountaineers must be able to run the ball as they sustain drives. Kansas State has been excellent at keeping opponents off the board, ranking ninth in Defensive Finishing Drives.

Kansas State vs West Virginia Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and West Virginia match up statistically:

Kansas State Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
Rush Success7181
Line Yards4492
Pass Success68101
Pass Blocking**53107
Finishing Drives2185
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

West Virginia Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
Rush Success3636
Line Yards70111
Pass Success3537
Pass Blocking**3585
Finishing Drives349
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling7716
PFF Coverage54126
SP+ Special Teams7434
Seconds per Play28.1 (101)25.7 (47)
Rush Rate59.5% (26)49.7% (90)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus, and SportSource Analytics.

Kansas State vs West Virginia Betting Pick

The market initially bet this game up to 7.5. However, with Martinez being ruled out, the buy-back on West Virginia has begun.

By all indications, that's the correct move. The Mountaineers are motivated here to keep their season alive in front of their fans in Morgantown.

While that effort may not produce a victory, it should help them keep this one close. West Virginia will find ways to run the ball and potentially control the clock, which is critical, especially with the Wildcats' potential passing success.

Back the Mountaineers to get up for their last home game.

Pick: West Virginia +7.5 (Play to 7)

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