Miller’s Kentucky vs. Toledo Betting Preview & Odds: How to Bet a High Over/Under

Miller’s Kentucky vs. Toledo Betting Preview & Odds: How to Bet a High Over/Under article feature image
Credit:

John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Terry Wilson

  • Kentucky won 10 games in 2018 thanks to its defense, but the Wildcats will look very different in 2019.
  • Toledo’s Jason Candle is one of the best offensive coaches in the country and the Rockets are considered a MAC favorite.
  • Who should you back on Saturday afternoon?

Kentucky vs. Toledo Betting Odds

  • Odds: Kentucky -10
  • Over/Under: 61.5
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV: SEC Network

All odds above are as of 10 a.m. ET on Saturday and via PointsBet.

Kentucky had a magical 10-win season in 2018, but faces significant attrition coming into this year, particularly on defense, where they rank 127th in returning production.

The Wildcats lose first round pass rusher Josh Allen and their top six defensive backs from last year, so it’s natural to expect that the pass defense takes a big step back.

Toledo returns last year’s starting quarterback Mitchell Guadagni and former Kentucky running back signee Bryant Koback, who ran for nearly 900 yards in 2018 as a freshman. He’ll be running behind four senior offensive line starters.

When healthy, Guadagni looked like one of the best Group of Five quarterbacks in the country and he’s good to go heading into Week 1. Toledo does lose its top three receivers but has recruited very well and have plenty of guys ready to step in.

Jason Candle is also one of the best offensive coaches in the country and he’ll look to take advantage of an entirely new Kentucky secondary.

When Kentucky has the ball in Week 1 against Toledo, they’ll be without departed star running back Benny Snell. Snell was the heart and soul of this offense, but quarterback Terry Wilson returns after an up-and-down season.

He’s more dangerous on the ground but his best weapon in 2019 will be junior wide receiver Lynn Bowden. I expect Kentucky to throw the ball much more than they did in 2018, meaning the clock will be stopped more often.

No matter how the Wildcats choose to move the ball, Toledo will struggle to stop them. They were atrocious against the run and the pass last year. They were horribly inefficient and couldn’t defend explosiveness at all. They rank just 82nd in defensive returning production so there isn’t a quick fix for this Rockets defense.

The Bet: Both teams move the ball against the other in this one. Kentucky used a much slower tempo than Toledo last year, but I think the Wildcats will be producing plenty of quick scores on Saturday.

I made a play on the over at 59 on The Action App as soon as totals were released. After a couple weeks without much change, this total took off on Monday night and now sits at 62. I would play this over up to 63.

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