Louisiana vs. Coastal Carolina Betting Picks & Odds: Time to Back the Ragin’ Cajuns?

Louisiana vs. Coastal Carolina Betting Picks & Odds: Time to Back the Ragin’ Cajuns? article feature image
Credit:

Jay Biggerstaff, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jaivon Heiligh

  • ULL travels to Coastal Carolina on Thursday night in a game that the oddsmakers think could be a blowout.
  • The updated betting odds have Louisiana as a two-touchdown favorite.
  • Our experts pick out their favorite bets for the matchup, including some thoughts on the over/under.

Louisiana at Coastal Carolina Odds

  • Spread: Louisiana -14
  • Over/Under: 58.5
  • Time: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPNU

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Louisiana at Coastal Carolina Line Movement

After opening as low as -11, UL Lafayette has been bet up to (and in some cases through) the key number of -14, as a few shops have continued the movement up to -14.5. A 63% backing making up for 74% of money helps explain the drastic movement.

The total has been even more lopsided, but perhaps a result of less overall action, has really moved from its opening number. It still sits right around 58.5 despite 80% of bets and 80% of money hitting the over. — Danny Donahue

Collin Wilson: The Numbers Explain the Steam

The opening line for this game, Louisiana -11, did not last long. Sportsbooks have seen nothing but Ragin’ Cajun money for this game and that has sent this spread to -14 around the market.

This is a good example of why having a power ratings system that you can trust is important. The Action Network’s projections make Coastal Carolina a 14.5-point underdog in this game.

When you dig into the stats, you can see why the market is showing a lot of love for the Cajuns. Louisiana is No. 1 in the country in rushing success rate and 20th in passing success rate. The Ragin’ Cajuns match up well with the Chanticleers, who rank 65th in opponent rushing success and 117th in opponent passing success.

Coastal Carolina is coming off an emotional home victory against Troy. The Chanticleers sealed the win with a successful two-point conversion. The win covers up some blemishes, though.

The Chants have been out-gained in each of their last four games and allowed over 300 rushing yards to Georgia Southern and Georgia State. UL Lafayette struggled in a game against Appalachian State on Oct. 9, but the Cajuns have scored at least 30 points in every game since then. In fact, the only two teams to hold Louisiana under 30 points are Mississippi State and Appalachian State.

Coastal Carolina’s defense should not pose a problem compared to those two units. The Chants rank 93rd in line yards and 129th in opponent red zone touchdown scoring. Louisiana’s offense excels in the red zone, ranking 15th in that same category.

This would indicate that there will be plenty of points, but our projected Over/Under for this game is 56.5. If this number keeps climbing, I’ll be looking to take an Under at 58.5 or higher. As for the side, I’d take Louisiana at anything better than -14 and Coastal at anything better than +14.5.

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