The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in Hattiesburg, Miss. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN.
Mississippi St is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. The total is set at 60.5 points.
Here are my Mississippi St vs. Southern Miss prediction and college football picks for Saturday, August 30, 2025.
Mississippi St vs Southern Miss Prediction
- Mississippi St vs. Southern Miss Pick: Southern Miss +14.5 (-115, BetMGM)
My Southern Miss vs. Mississippi St best bet is on the Golden Eagles to cover as home 'dogs. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Mississippi St vs Southern Miss Betting Odds
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +425 |
- Mississippi St vs Southern Miss point spread: Mississippi St -14.5 (-105), Southern Miss +14.5 (-115)
- Mississippi St vs Southern Miss over/under: 60.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Mississippi St vs Southern Miss moneyline: Mississippi St -600, Southern Miss +425
Mississippi St vs Southern Miss Pick, Betting Analysis
This game aligns with one of our PRO Bet Labs systems, developed by our own Evan Abrams.
This system focuses on college football teams opening their seasons at home as underdogs. These teams often enter Week 1 overlooked by the market, yet they enjoy the advantage of a familiar environment, crowd energy, and months of preparation aimed at this single game.
With the spread favoring the opponent modestly, the home side can play with added urgency, aiming to make an early statement.
The unique dynamic of a first game, where rust and execution issues can affect both sides, often narrows the gap, creating value in backing the underdog before market expectations fully adjust.
This system has been super profitable recently, generating 24 units of profit on straight one-unit bets over the past five years.
I’m all over the Golden Eagles in this game, and not just because of the system.
Mississippi State is going to be really bad this season. Aside from head coach Jeff Lebby and quarterback Blake Shapen, the Bulldogs lost everyone else to the portal, including over two dozen players.
The early-season continuity issues may be a big problem on the road in Week 1.
Southern Miss is also a completely new team, but continuity shouldn’t be a problem.
Somehow, someway, the Golden Eagles pulled off the biggest coaching carousel coup of the offseason, snatching head coach Charles Huff from Marshall. The Herd won the Sun Belt last season under his leadership, and he brought most of the team with him, including the starting quarterback (Sun Belt Preseason Offensive Player of the Year Braylon Braxton), best receiver, and over a dozen defensive players.
I also quite like offensive coordinator Blake Anderson (Utah State, Arkansas State) and the Eagles’ deep running back room.
If the seven incoming offensive line transfers mesh, Southern Miss’ offense could be borderline-elite at the Group of 5 level.
Huff brought his defensive coordinator, Jason Semore, with him. Semor’s 4-2-5 created a ton of Havoc last season, and Josh Moten picked off five passes as the Herd’s lockdown corner last season.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Herd won this game outright, but I’ll happily take the points.
Pick: Southern Miss +14.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Mississippi State vs Southern Miss On TV
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
- Location: Beaver Stadium, Centre County, PA
