All the media wants to do is talk about the big, bad, blue-blood programs.
Who’s going to make the college football? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Athens, Ohio, and Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
While our fields may be blue, grey, or teal, the money that can be won on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As The Action Network’s resident Group of 5 Guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often-overlooked teams and matchups, while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
With a sneaky fun slate, here are two games I have circled for Week 5. Let's dive into my NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Saturday, Sept. 20.
South Alabama vs North Texas Pick
| S. Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 63 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 63 -110o / -110u | -500 |
Pop Quiz: Which qualified quarterback (min. 100 snaps) has the highest Pro Football Focus Offensive Grade this season?
That's right, it's Drew Mestemaker.
The redshirt freshman walk-on burst onto the scene in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl against Texas State last season, throwing for 393 yards and two touchdowns while adding 55 yards and a score on the ground.
He will look to replicate those numbers against another Sun Belt opponent on Saturday.
Eric Morris once again has an offense that shreds. The Mean Green rank 20th nationally in Success Rate and have been lethal through the air.
Mestemaker has tossed 10 touchdown passes with no interceptions this year. He spreads the ball out really well to a deep pass-catching corps. Four North Texas receivers average over 40 yards receiving per game, making it impossible for defenses to key in on one target.
The running game shares the wealth as well, with Makenzie McGill and Caleb Hawkins mainly splitting carries. Both of them are averaging over 5.4 yards per carry while combining for nine rushing touchdowns.
South Alabama ranks 113th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed. The Jaguars' defense has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this year, including multiple rushing scores in every game. Opponents are averaging 196.3 yards per game on the ground.
The Jaguars have also really struggled to prevent Finishing Drives, ranking 123rd nationally. Meanwhile, North Texas ranks 26th in Finishing Drives on offense.
The Mean Green should be able to move the ball plenty on this defense and convert those drives into points.
The Mean Green defense has improved significantly from last year, but they do not create Havoc and have already allowed over 30 points to Western Michigan and Army. Both teams ripped them up on the ground, and Kentrel Bullock should have success on the ground for the Jaguars.
Both of these teams are already 3-1 to the Over, and when they faced off last season, the final score was 52-38.
Expect to see fireworks again here on Saturday.
Pick: Over 63 (-110, bet365)
Marshall vs Louisiana Pick
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
I was low on Marshall entering the season. I even bet on the preseason win total under.
However, I have been pleasantly surprised by how they have performed through the first four weeks.
The Thundering Herd have started 3-1 against the spread and appear to be more feisty than expected under Tony Gibson.
Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson has thrown six touchdown passes with no interceptions while completing 79% of his passes on the year. Demarcus Lacey has been an explosive target for Del Rio-Wilson, and tight end Toby Payne is the most reliable option and one of the few holdovers from last year’s Sun Belt Championship team.
Marshall was expected to fall apart after that Championship victory, but it has actually been the team its beat that has been unraveling.
Louisiana has been a disaster to start the year. The Cajuns are 1-3, including a loss to Rice as double-digit favorites and another loss to a winless Eastern Michigan team.
Quarterback Walker Howard got hurt in the season opener, and his backup, Daniel Beale, has been a nightmare. He is completing just 50% of his passes with one touchdown and two interceptions.
The only way Louisiana can move the ball at all is on the ground with the tandem of Zylan Perry and Elijah Davis, but that plays right into Marshall’s strong front seven.
The biggest advantage for the Thundering Herd comes to us from Collin Wilson’s Havoc ratings.
Louisiana’s offensive line has been horrendous, ranking 122nd nationally in preventing Havoc. The Cajuns should struggle to block a Marshall defense that ranks 15th in generating Havoc. The Thundering Herd currently lead the Sun Belt with 14 sacks and 29 tackles for loss.
After expecting to compete for the conference championship once again, Louisiana is in free-fall mode and could be on "White Flag Watch" soon.
This spread is projected to be within a field goal, which does not bode well for the Ragin’ Cajuns. They have gone just 4-13 under head coach Michael Desormeaux in one-score games.
It’s not often a first-year coach has the coaching advantage, but that might be the case here.
Pick: Marshall +1 (-110, bet365)
