All the media wants to do is talk about the big, bad, blue-blood programs.
Who’s going to make the college football? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Athens, Ohio, and Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
While our fields may be blue, grey, or teal, the money that can be won on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As The Action Network’s resident Group of 5 Guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often-overlooked teams and matchups, while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
With a sneaky fun slate, here are three games I have circled for Week 6. Let's dive into my NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Saturday, Oct. 4.
Air Force vs Navy Pick
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
This bet is simple.
Since 2005, the Under in games between Service Academies is 47-12-1 (79.6%). During that stretch, 26 games have closed with a total over 50. The under is 20-5-1 (80%) in those contests.
You can sit here and tell me that Air Force ranks second nationally in Success Rate on offense and that Navy ranks sixth in Success Rate. Both of these offenses are averaging more than seven yards per play.
However, all of those statistics have been compiled against teams that do not practice against the Triple Option daily. Both teams have had success against teams that struggle to stop this offense.
That will not be the case on Saturday.
Navy averages 54.5 rushing attempts per game, and Air Force averages 50.3. The clock will run continuously throughout the game.
The biggest weakness for both teams is their pass defenses, but that won’t matter in this game, as the ball will likely remain on the ground all day.
Don’t overthink it. You have to throw out the statistics against opponents that aren’t other Service Academies and trust these teams know how to stop each other, because they always do.
Pick: Under 51.5 (-110, bet365)
UTSA vs Temple Pick
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 58 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Temple Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 58 -110o / -110u | +195 |
UTSA has not gotten off to the start many expected, with the Roadrunners poised as a sleeper in the American.
The offense returned nine starters, led by quarterback Owen McCown, who finished second in the conference with 25 touchdown passes. McCown has seven touchdown passes through four games, but his yards per game and yards per attempt are both way down.
Instead, the Roadrunners have been relying more on running back Robert Henry. He leads the conference with 624 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Henry has a blistering 9.2 yards per carry, the most of any back in the country with more than 40 carries.
UTSA has been incredibly explosive on offense, but has struggled to move the ball down the field consistently. They rank outside of the top 100 nationally in Success Rate on offense.
The defensive numbers have been a disaster for the Roadrunners, but they started the year against Texas A&M and a good Texas State offense. They have looked better the last two weeks, but need to continue improving after not returning a single starter from last year.
Temple has had the opposite schedule, starting the year against two easy opponents before being blown out by Oklahoma and Georgia Tech over the last two weeks. K.C. Keeler has the team looking quickly improved, but the Owls still have a lot to improve upon.
Quarterback Evan Simon has been terrific and has been feeding receiver Jojo Bermudez on the outside. The passing attack has been fantastic, but the numbers have plummeted over the last two games.
Temple completed 80% of its passes for 507 yards and 10 touchdowns against UMass and Howard. The Owls have completed 48% of their passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the next two games. The actual level of this offense is likely somewhere between these two extremes.
Before the season, our Action Network Power Ratings would have made this game 20.3 on a neutral field, and SP+ would have made the spread 17.7. Even after upgrading Temple and downgrading UTSA, this still feels like an overreaction to a slow start for the Roadrunners and inflated numbers from Temple’s first two games.
Even now, our Action Network Power Ratings still predict a 13.5-point spread on a neutral field.
Temple isn’t exactly known for a raucous home-field advantage. Both teams are coming off a bye week, but I think that benefits UTSA more to work out the kinks and come out strong here.
Pick: UTSA -6.5 (-115, bet365)
Memphis vs Tulsa Pick
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
Memphis easily could have suffered a letdown last week against Florida Atlantic, coming off the big upset win over Arkansas.
Instead, the Tigers hung 55 points on the Owls.
This Memphis team is rolling right now and firmly in the College Football Playoff race for the Group of 5.
The Tigers boast a top-30 offense, averaging 39.6 points per game. Quarterback Brendon Lewis might not have the arm talent Seth Henigan had, but he has thrown five touchdowns through the air while adding six rushing scores.
This offense has transitioned to a more RPO-based attack, with Lewis operating the offense alongside running backs Sutton Smith and Gregory Desrosiers. Smith is averaging 7.0 yards per carry, and Desrosiers is averaging 8.3. The Tigers' 19 rushing touchdowns are the second most in the country, behind only Florida State.
That is a significant problem for a Tulsa team that ranks 114th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game and has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this year. The Golden Hurricane have also allowed 400 yards in three straight games.
Starting quarterback Kirk Francis has missed the last three games with a concussion, and backup Baylor Hayes has struggled with accuracy. Plus, the Golden Hurricane rank 105th nationally in Rush Success Rate.
While Memphis does not have an elite defense necessarily, the Tigers rank 11th nationally at creating Havoc. They are going to feast on this offensive line, as Tulsa has allowed 33 tackles for loss through five games.
Everett Roussaw, Sam Brumfield, and William Whitlow are going to live in the backfield all game long.
I don’t see the path for Tulsa to keep this close and expect Memphis to continue rolling. The Tigers have a bye next week, so there is no reason to take the foot off the gas here.
Pick: Memphis -21 (-110, bet365)
