College football Week 8 is here, which means it's time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline.
Our Group of Five experts from the Big Bets on Campus podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for Central Michigan vs. Bowling Green and UTSA vs. North Texas.
When parlayed together, these two Group of 5 'dogs pay out at nearly 5-1.
Let's take a look at our Week 8 college football picks and NCAAF predictions in our Group of 5 moneyline underdog parlay.
Central Michigan +160 vs. Bowling Green
| Central Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -190 |
By Joshua Nunn
I’m still not sold on Bowling Green. Its comeback win over Bowling Green says way more about how Toledo played.
Shame on Jason Candle, who had a 21-0 lead in a rivalry game, with revenge on his mind after last season, and let it slip. That’s just embarrassing. Toledo choked.
Looking back a couple of weeks ago, Central Michigan’s dud against Akron shouldn’t have been a huge shock either. It was coming off a big rivalry win over Eastern Michigan and just totally fell apart on the road.
Now, if the Chips want to salvage something this season, they need to circle some dates on the calendar, especially with Western Michigan, Buffalo and Toledo still left to play.
This upcoming match against Bowling Green has to be circled red, bolded and underlined. If Central Michigan wants to make a bowl game, it needs to win this one.
Bowling Green, meanwhile, is coming off that emotional rivalry win, but let’s dig a little deeper.
The Falcons barely moved the ball against Toledo, finishing with only 226 offensive yards on 53 plays.
Their ground game was brutal, averaging just 1.7 yards per carry. Quarterback Drew Pyne left the game with an injury and is still questionable. If he can't go, Lucian Anderson III hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire.
Central Michigan should be able to game plan to keep Bowling Green’s offense contained. BG ranks a miserable 126th nationally in offensive explosiveness and 107th in Finishing Drives.
That means there won’t be many scoring chances because Central Michigan is probably going to run the ball, chew clock and shorten the game. On top of that, I expect the defense to force a couple of turnovers.
After the bye week and stewing on that embarrassing loss to Akron, this game is the perfect chance for a reset.
Remember the opener against San Jose State? No one knew what to expect from Central Michigan, but it showed up with a ton of physicality and attitude on both sides of the ball. I think we’re going to see that same kind of energy fromhead coach Matt Drinkall's group.
The Chips should be fired up, angry, and ready to win this game.
UTSA +150 vs. North Texas
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 67.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 67.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
I think the Roadrunners have woken up.
They took their lumps early, including a tough loss to Texas A&M in College Station (an 18-point beatdown in what was basically a payday game) and a shaky defensive effort at home against Texas State in a high-scoring affair they lost by a touchdown.
It felt like the air was slowly leaking out of their season.
But here’s the thing: they’ve won three of their last four, and the offense completely dominated Rice with perfect balance all around. Quarterback Owen McCown has a deep, talented receiving group, and he’s spreading the ball around nicely.
I did a deep dive and busted out the game tape at 2x speed to review all of McCown’s past attempts and checked the stats, too. It all pointed to the offensive line being a huge problem.
They rank 129th nationally in pass protection. But that was expected, given all the transferring going on. Three transfers are making major contributions on the line, if not starting outright. They just haven’t gelled yet.
So, what did offensive coordinator Justin Burke do? He smartly shifted to a quick game plan.
McCown’s average depth of target (aDOT) is down 15% year over year. He’s getting the ball out faster and saving deep shots for play-action sets.
We're seeing more play-action with waggles and rollouts like we saw against Rice. Giving McCown that extra time and space is helping him stay calm and not get rattled.
Burke’s a sharp coach I trust. And with a veteran offense — even with a shaky offensive line — I’m confident the combo of McCown and Burke’s play-calling will put points on the board.
North Texas, meanwhile, is coming off a beatdown in a big game against USF last Friday. In its emotional loss in what was its “Game of the Century” at home, QB Drew Mestemaker threw three interceptions.
On the other side, the defense has clear holes, especially up front. North Texas ranks 91st in pass rush, per PFF, with just 13 sacks on the entire season. It even made Western Michigan’s offense look solid earlier this year.
So, if UTSA’s QB and play-caller get the time they need, I think they’ll carve up the Mean Green’s defense. I think this line should be closer to a coin-flip.
This game looks like a barnburner waiting to happen, and I think the Roadrunners are on the rise again. They’re clawing back toward the top of the American Conference and could be either a big thorn in the side or a legit contender come conference championship time — if they win out, that is.
It’ll take nearly flawless football, but I trust this offense right now, especially compared to North Texas.
All that said, I believe this group rebounds. They’ve shown they have what it takes on both sides of the ball over the past month. This matchup looks mispriced to me. I like UTSA to win outright.
Group of 5 Moneyline Underdog Parlay for Week 8
- Central Michigan ML +160 vs. Bowling Green
- UTSA ML +150 vs. North Texas
Parlay Odds: +550 (bet365)
