You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
To keep the chalk talk rolling this week, we're two home favorites — one at the Power 4 level and one at the Group of 5 level.
Let's dive into our Week 8 college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Florida vs. Mississippi State and Air Force vs. Wyoming on Saturday, Oct. 18.
Week 8 College Football Predictions, Picks
Stuckey: Air Force -4 vs. Wyoming
Wyoming Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 58 -110o / -110u | +155 |
Air Force Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 58 -110o / -110u | -185 |
I'm starting with Air Force here. The Falcons are laying points against what’s arguably the worst defense in the nation, giving up about eight yards per play.
This is going to be a welcome breather for them. Air Force is sitting at 1-5 because its defense has been a mess. It can’t cover anyone in the secondary, but the run defense hasn't been terrible.
But when looking at their losses to Utah State, Boise State, Hawaii, UNLV and Navy, you realize they’ve been facing some pretty solid offenses. Four of those five rank in the top 50 when adjusted for schedule.
Now, Wyoming is a different story. The Pokes offense sits clearly outside the top 100, and now they're facing injury issues at tight end.
Will Wyoming put up points? Definitely. But can it keep pace with Air Force’s electric offense, which might be my favorite to watch in college football right now? Probably not.
At home, desperate for its first FBS win of the season, Air Force should get it done.
Wyoming scored 35 against San Jose State in its last outing, but it looked like a blowout waiting to happen for the Spartans. The Cowboys were down big before a couple of missed field goals and an injury to the opposing QB helped them stay close.
Then there was the pick-six and punt return touchdown. Wyoming simply couldn’t keep up before that.
This Air Force offense is something special. It's fast, dynamic, and at home, I like its chances to get that elusive first FBS win.
Collin Wilson: Florida -9.5 vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
Florida Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -370 |
I’m taking Florida to come away with a big win here.
Mississippi State’s biggest issue is up front in the trenches. When it runs into tough defenses, especially one as fierce as Florida’s, it tends to get mauled. That’s exactly what’s going to happen in this matchup.
Florida’s defense is straight-up nasty, and I don’t expect Mississippi State to find much success on the ground. Plus, Finishing Drives in the Swamp is always a tall order, and that’s going to be a real problem for the Bulldogs.
On the offensive side, quarterback DJ Lagway keeps showing improvement, which is encouraging.
I don’t give much weight to the Gators' overall season stats because they keep getting better every week. Right now, they have momentum, and it’s only going to carry them through.
I'll take Florida to roll in this one.
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