College football Week 7 is upon us, which means it's time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline. Our Group of 5 experts from the Big Bets on Campus podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for North Texas vs. USF and Ball State vs. Western Michigan.
When paired together, these two Group of 5 'dogs pay out at nearly 7-1.
Let's take a look at our Week 7 college football predictions and NCAAF picks in our Group of 5 moneyline underdog parlay.
North Texas +105 vs. USF
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 67.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 67.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
I like what USF head coach Alex Golesh has done with his program. He has definitely brought a lot of energy, and when everything’s clicking, his system is absolutely legit by Group of Five standards.
That said, I do have some doubts about USF quarterback Byrum Brown, especially on the road. He can be a little high variance. I’m setting aside the Florida and Miami games here. He played well enough at the Swamp to win, and Miami basically shut him down, but that's a top-five team, so I’m not holding that against him.
But looking at his road performances overall, there have been multiple games where he’s taken way too many sacks and held onto the ball too long. In 2023 alone, Brown had four games with multiple turnovers, all on the road.
Well, when you were going through all those defensive metrics for North Texas, defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity has far exceeded expectations.
He came in with a bit of a wunderkind reputation, like he was going to flip things around with his 4-2-5 defense. Even if you looked through rose-tinted glasses, you’d think they might be a middle-of-the-pack defense by American Conference standards.
But what they’ve done has been pretty incredible. No team has a better PFF tackling grade than UNT, and its eighth-ranked coverage unit speaks volumes.
The back-end continuity has been huge.
The offseason wasn’t about just grabbing the best player available and throwing money at him to patch holes. Cassity brought in some key pieces, including linebacker Trey Fields and cornerback David Fisher from Sam Houston.
That has added a level of sophistication to the defense. These guys aren’t paralyzed by overthinking. They know what they’re seeing and play fast.
What I find fascinating is that this defense, despite having a lot of transfers on paper, actually plays like a veteran unit because many of these guys have experience in Cassity's system already.
Offensively, head coach Eric Morris’ background is interesting. He comes from the Air Raid tree, and we all think Mike Leach’s offense, but this isn’t your classic Leach aerial assault.
In fact, they run the ball a lot more than you might expect and have been surprisingly efficient doing so.
Quarterback Drew Mestemaker hasn’t tried to put up crazy passing stats or chuck touchdowns all over the place. Instead, he’s been extremely efficient.
They avoid situations where they have to convert long third downs and keep the defense guessing. It’s the classic Air Raid challenge for defenses: spreading the field and covering 50-plus yards laterally.
Then, when you add in a quality running game, it opens up big lanes for those smaller backs to make plays.
I think North Texas is the side to back here. Like I said, it’s a sellout crowd in a blackout game on national TV. Everything’s setting up for a big one.
If UNT can get some early momentum, this could turn into a real hornet’s nest for USF. I’m also betting on Brown to regress a bit to his past road form, which has featured too many negative plays.
I’ll take North Texas right around even money.
Ball State +275 vs. Western Michigan
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -350 |
By Joshua Nunn
I’m taking Ball State on the moneyline at +275 heading into Western Michigan’s turf.
It’s been a bit of a slow burn since Cardinals head coach Mike Uremovich arrived from Butler and revamped their offense, but those drives are starting to click.
Quarterback Kiael Kelly’s passing game is finally coming together with his receivers stepping up, giving Ball State’s offense a whole new spark.
Over the last three weeks, Ball State’s signal-caller has really stepped up, delivering three straight covers against the spread.
Last week’s outright win over Ohio was telling. The Cardinals were down, 14-0, at halftime but stayed competitive. A couple of red-zone turnovers hurt them early, but their defense completely locked Ohio down in the second half.
I’m confident Ball State will keep this game tight and low-scoring. I’ve already locked in a bet on them covering the +8.5 spread.
Here’s why Ball State can actually win outright: Western Michigan’s offense is struggling big time.
WMU pulled off an upset against Toledo, but before that, it looked dead in the water. It has barely put points on the board, and the offense just can’t move the chains. The Lance Taylor experiment has been shaky, and that’s putting it nicely.
Case in point: Against UMass, Western Michigan’s first six drives went fumble, punt, touchdown, missed field goal, punt and punt. That’s a disaster.
The Broncos rank near dead last in the country in Offensive Success Rate, Finishing Drives and Havoc allowed.
Meanwhile, Ball State’s defense has been pressuring quarterbacks nonstop, with 15 sacks and 33 tackles for loss on the season.
Last week, it got to Ohio QB Parker Navarro four times, and it'll bring that heat again against Broc Lowry.
Ball State’s defensive line matches up well, and its run defense is solid, improving each week since facing Power 4 opponents like Purdue and Auburn. The Cardinals gave up about five yards per carry to those teams but managed to prevent big, back-breaking runs.
Western Michigan doesn’t have much pop on the ground either. Lowry and Jalen Buckley are the main runners, but Buckley's averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and has yet to score a rushing touchdown this season.
WMU grades as the second-worst run defense in the conference, according to PFF. The run offense isn’t much better.
Ball State can definitely create plays with Kelly’s legs and involve playmakers like Qua Ashley in the run game.
These teams aren’t worlds apart, and I expect this to come down to a field goal. Given how Ball State has played the last few weeks, I’ll take the underdog to pull off the upset in Kalamazoo.
Group of 5 Moneyline Underdog Parlay for Week 7
- North Texas ML +105 vs. USF
- Ball State ML +275 vs. Western Michigan
Parlay Odds: +669 (bet365)
