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Oklahoma vs Iowa State Odds, Picks, Prediction | Back This ‘Dog in Big 12

Oklahoma vs Iowa State Odds, Picks, Prediction | Back This ‘Dog in Big 12 article feature image
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Photo by Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Image. Pictured: Hunter Dekkers & Cartevious Norton (Iowa State)

Oklahoma vs Iowa State Odds

Saturday, Oct. 29
12 p.m. ET
FS1
Oklahoma Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5
-110
57.5
-110o / -110u
-120
Iowa State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
-110
57.5
-110o / -110u
+100
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Coming into the season, the Big 12 looked to be a very deep conference with a lot of potential parity between the programs. However, these two programs have been roughed up in conference play thus far.

The Oklahoma Sooners were a top-ranked team. Transfer Dillon Gabriel has given the team a ton of explosiveness on offense, but the defense has not done him any favors.

The Sooners have allowed 31 points per game this season and have allowed every Power Five opponent — aside from Nebraska –to score over 40 points.

As for the Cyclones, they are on a downward spiral, as it’s been the offense that has let them down in conference play thus far. They enter this matchup having lost four straight, and they were all by one possession.

They have been so close to having a much different season. Perhaps their luck will turn in this matchup.

Let’s dive in to find out.


Oklahoma Sooners

As I alluded to in the open, Oklahoma was a highly-touted team in the preseason, as the offense was projected to be very high-powered and explosive.

Thus far, the Sooners have lived up to that billing, as Gabriel has been dynamite when he’s been fully healthy.

So far, he’s averaging 9.2 yards per completion and has a 13-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also been a solid contributor on the ground, as he’s racked up 163 rushing yards and scored three times.

Although, when it comes to the ground game, that has been all Eric Gray. The senior running back has had a monster season, averaging 7.2 yards per carry and scoring five times.

Much of his success has been a result of the outstanding play by the Sooners’ offensive line. They come into this matchup fifth in Offensive Line Yards and should have the edge in the trenches once again.

However, running the ball against this Iowa State front has been no easy task. The Cyclones enter this matchup ranked 10th in yards per rush allowed. They have proven they can stifle rushing attacks, which has shut down their opposition in plus territory.

Their opponents are unable to run the ball on them as they get closer to the end zone, and that is why Iowa State is ranked third in Defensive Finishing Drives.


Iowa State Cyclones

For the Cyclones, the month formerly known as Brocktober has not been great.

The Cyclones are built to play through their solid defense, so you would expect them to be able to run the ball and control the clock. However, that has not been the case. They have averaged just 2.9 yards per carry and rank 119th in Offensive Line Yards.

However, their rushing output could look very different in this matchup.

The Sooners’ defense has been shredded on the ground this season. They enter ranked 106th in yards per rush allowed and 119th in rushing yards per game allowed.

In addition, they are 123rd in Defensive Finishing Drives. So if the Cyclones get into plus territory, you can count on points going up on the board.

Iowa State’s success in this matchup won’t end there, as it has been a pass-heavy offense this year. Hunter Dekkers may not lead an explosive passing attack, but it has been very effective nonetheless.

He ranks 21st in completion percentage and 19th in passing attempts per game. That amount of success and volume is trouble for this Oklahoma secondary.

The Sooners rank 89th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and are 107th in Coverage, per PFF. Whether they opt to throw or keep the ball on the ground, the Cyclones should have their best offensive output of the season.


Oklahoma vs Iowa State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Iowa State match up statistically:

Oklahoma Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 35 53
Line Yards 5 35
Pass Success 53 73
Pass Blocking** 14 59
Havoc 32 75
Finishing Drives 46 3
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Iowa State Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 114 94
Line Yards 119 81
Pass Success 62 89
Pass Blocking** 102 107
Havoc 44 56
Finishing Drives 51 123
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 92 90
PFF Coverage 107 68
SP+ Special Teams 8 130
Seconds per Play 21.2 (7) 27.2 (87)
Rush Rate 59.4% (23) 44.8% (117)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus, and SportSource Analytics.

Oklahoma vs Iowa State Pick

This line opened with Oklahoma being the slight favorite on the road here, but we have since seen some Iowa State action make it a pick at some spots.

That movement is well justified. The Cyclones should move the ball consistently while stifling the Sooners’ ground game on the other side of the ball.

That’s why I’m backing the Cyclones to come out on top in this one.

Pick: Iowa State ML +100

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