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Oklahoma vs Texas Tech Odds & Predictions: Sooners to Win Comfortably?

Oklahoma vs Texas Tech Odds & Predictions: Sooners to Win Comfortably? article feature image
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Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel.

Oklahoma vs Texas Tech Odds

Saturday, Nov. 26
7:30 p.m. ET
FS1
Oklahoma Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2
-110
65
-110o / -110u
-125
Texas Tech Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2
-110
65
-110o / -110u
+105
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

It’s the final Saturday of the regular season, and while many teams’ postseason fates have a clearer picture, these two Big 12 teams need to battle for bowl eligibility.

The Oklahoma Sooners have been a massive disappointment, as they began the year ranked in the top 10, but a string of bad losses combined with injuries quickly changed that opinion. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel as their season hangs in the balance here.

As for the Red Raiders, they have also shown some fight lately with their season on the line. Texas Tech has won two straight, defeating Iowa State and Kansas entering this matchup. Their morale is high, but can they step up for one more crucial victory? Let’s take a closer look to find out.


Oklahoma Sooners

Looking at the Sooners’ offense, Dillon Gabriel has not made the impact many thought he would after transferring from UCF. Of course, some of that has been due to injuries, but he has been far less mobile than he was pre-2021.

Fortunately, running back Eric Gray has taken advantage of his excellent offensive line. Gray has had a monstrous season on the ground. He’s averaging 6.5 yards per carry and has reached pay dirt 11 times. The senior has carried the Sooners’ offense, as they rush over 58 percent of the time.

Gray and the Sooners should be able to have sustained success on the ground again in this matchup. Texas Tech is 92nd in yards per rush allowed and is outranked, 42-6, in Line Yards in this matchup.

If the Sooners can establish the run early, expect them to rely heavily on Gray. Texas has been surprisingly stingy against the pass and is not a good matchup for Gabriel, who’s had a steady drop in his completion percentage this season.

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Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Red Raiders have proven they can win in contrasting styles, as they took a shootout against Kansas but then ground out a win against Iowa State.

This offense was living and dying on the arm of Donovan Smith, but his inconsistency caused a breaking point.

Senior Tyler Shough has taken the reins once again after being named the starter last year. Unfortunately, Shough suffered a broken collarbone last year, and it appeared he’d lost his job for good.

However, he’s risen to the occasion with the opportunity and kept his team’s season alive, although that success might come to a halt in this matchup.

The Sooners’ defense has had some poor performances, especially in conference play, but their numbers say they are turning it around down the stretch. They are 34th in yards per pass allowed and 37th in Defensive Havoc.

It will be interesting to see if the Red Raiders run the ball more, as that’s where Oklahoma has been susceptible. Yet, their offensive line has not played great, and the battle in the trenches is about even.


Oklahoma vs Texas Tech Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Texas Tech match up statistically:

Oklahoma Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 27 32
Line Yards 6 42
Pass Success 53 15
Pass Blocking** 12 43
Havoc 23 68
Finishing Drives 67 36
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas Tech Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 53 89
Line Yards 48 55
Pass Success 99 65
Pass Blocking** 85 115
Havoc 103 37
Finishing Drives 69 79
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 52 29
PFF Coverage 73 96
SP+ Special Teams 29 72
Seconds per Play 20.9 (3) 21.0 (5)
Rush Rate 58.3% (32) 47.5% (104)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Foc,us and SportSource Analytics.

Oklahoma vs Texas Tech Betting Pick

This is one of the rare matchups you’ll find this week where both teams are highly motivated. The winner of this game will be bowl eligible, so expect each team to give their best effort.

Under those circumstances, the Sooners have the edge. They should control this game by running the ball. That attack will be highly effective and will also limit the Red Raiders’ opportunities to score.

In the end, the Sooners will take this game and salvage their season.

Pick: Oklahoma -2 (Play to 2.5)

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