The Oklahoma State Cowboys take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Kickoff is set for 3:45 p.m. EDT on ESPNU.
Oklahoma State is favored by -13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 59.5 points.
Here’s my Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 5, 2026.
Oklahoma State vs Tulsa Prediction
- Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Pick: Oklahoma State -13.5 (Play to -16.5)
My Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State best bet is on the Cowboys to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Oklahoma State vs Tulsa Odds
| OK State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
- Oklahoma State vs Tulsa point spread: Oklahoma State -13.5 (-110), Tulsa +13.5 (-110).
- Oklahoma State vs Tulsa over/under: 59.5 (-110 / -110).
- Oklahoma State vs Tulsa moneyline: Oklahoma State -550, Tulsa +450.
Oklahoma State vs Tulsa Preview
If you’re looking at last year’s Oklahoma State team and wondering why I’m laying nearly two touchdowns on the road, I don’t blame you.
The Cowboys went 1-11 and were a disaster on both sides of the ball. But I’m basically throwing those numbers in the garbage.
New head coach Eric Morris came in and flipped the roster with 91 newcomers, including 66 transfers, while retaining a large chunk of his North Texas operation.
Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Preview
There might not be a more difficult team to power-rate entering Week 1 than Oklahoma State.
Action Network’s Collin Wilson gave the Cowboys a massive +10 TARP adjustment, plus a +3 coaching adjustment and +1 for second-order win total regression.
But the biggest reason I’m buying the Pokes is quarterback Drew Mestemaker.
The North Texas transfer led the FBS with 4,379 passing yards last season, completing 68.9% of his passes with 34 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also averaged 9.46 yards per attempt, so he wasn't living on checkdowns.
More importantly, he’s not learning Morris’ offense from scratch.
Running back Caleb Hawkins and wide receiver Wyatt Young followed him from North Texas, along with offensive coordinator Sean Brophy and several other familiar faces.
North Texas finished tops nationally at 45.1 points per game last season, averaging 512.4 yards and 7.2 yards per play. Morris wants tempo, space, and explosives, and he already has a quarterback who knows exactly how to operate the system.
Hawkins provides balance after averaging 4.6 yards after first contact last season.
The biggest concern is an offensive line that doesn’t return a starter, especially against a Tulsa front that should be the strength of its defense. Morris can counter that with tempo, RPOs, and the quick passing game, forcing Tulsa’s linebackers and defensive backs to tackle in space.
Oklahoma State’s defense remains a question mark, particularly in the secondary. But I’m not asking this unit to be elite. Give Mestemaker enough possessions, and I like Oklahoma State’s chances of creating separation.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Preview
Tulsa isn’t a team I’m blindly fading this season. I actually think this program is heading back in the right direction.
Head coach Tre Lamb made progress in Year 1, particularly on defense, and the Golden Hurricane return legitimate experience in the front seven.
Tai Newhouse and Arias Nash return inside, while Kyran Duhon gives Tulsa another disruptive piece up front.
My bigger concern is Tulsa’s offense.
Quarterback Baylor Hayes returns after taking over the job as a freshman, but he completed only 58.9% of his passes, averaged 6.8 yards per attempt, and threw 12 touchdowns across 10 games last season.
Ultimately, Tulsa averaged just 23.2 points per game.
The Golden Hurricane’s ideal script is obvious: run the football, bleed clock, stay ahead of the chains, and keep Mestemaker on the sideline.
If Tulsa turns this into an ugly, low-possession game, it can hang around.
But if Oklahoma State gets up two scores and forces Hayes into obvious passing situations, this matchup changes dramatically.
Tulsa also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.4% of their passes last season. That’s concerning against Mestemaker and a system designed to manufacture favorable matchups in space.
Oklahoma State vs Tulsa Pick, Betting Analysis
SP+ gives me some hesitation because it’s more conservative on Oklahoma State and makes this closer to a 10- or 11-point game after accounting for home field.
But this is an unusual situation for any preseason model.
Oklahoma State essentially replaced its entire roster, which is why I’m putting more weight on the Cowboys’ +10 TARP adjustment here.
We’re getting the core of an offense that led the country in scoring and total offense, now surrounded by Power Four talent.
Tulsa’s defensive line could cause some early problems for Oklahoma State’s rebuilt offensive line. But over the course of the matchup, I expect the quality at quarterback and Oklahoma State’s ability to generate explosives to be the difference.
The Cowboys opened around -11.5 and have already been bet through -13.
I’m still comfortable laying 13.5 points, especially while we’re underneath the key number of 14. I would still play this up to -16.5.
If Oklahoma State forces Tulsa away from its preferred run-heavy script, I don’t trust Hayes to trade scores with Mestemaker — he won’t be able to keep up.
Pick: Oklahoma State -13.5 (Play to -16.5)
Oklahoma State vs Tulsa Betting Trends
