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Ole Miss vs Arkansas Odds & Predictions: Bet This Home Underdog

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Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: An Arkansas Razorbacks player.

Ole Miss vs Arkansas Odds

Saturday, Nov. 19
7:30 p.m. ET
SEC Network
Ole Miss Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5
-112
65.5
-108o / -112u
-125
Arkansas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
-108
65.5
-108o / -112u
+104
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Two SEC teams coming off difficult losses meet in Fayetteville on Saturday night.

Ole Miss was firmly in the mix in the SEC West and gave Alabama everything it could handle before ultimately coming up short, 30-24. Lane Kiffin’s bunch can no longer win the SEC, but at 8-2 and inside the top 15, there’s still plenty to play for.

Arkansas fought valiantly at home against LSU without KJ Jefferson. The Hogs were just unable to generate enough scoring to pull off the upset, but the defense really contained a dynamic Tiger offense.

When looking at this matchup from a betting perspective, one of the biggest handicaps is deciding which team will be able to do a better job of flushing last week. Let’s discuss where the value lies.

Ole Miss Rebels

For much of the season Ole Miss has hovered inside the top 15 and even the top 10 in some weeks. I’ve been skeptical of those rankings and have been reluctant to buy into that type of hype for a team with plenty of flaws.

Ironically enough, even though last Saturday ended in a loss, it was the most impressed I had been with Kiffin’s team all season.

Kiffin has a strong rushing attack with this group, but the Rebels struggle to move the ball down the field through the air.

USC transfer Jaxson Dart has looked really poised at times, but far too often he misses some open throws and has also thrown the ball to the other team in some costly situations.

Arkansas’ defense will present some challenges for Ole Miss, especially if the Hogs’ front plays like it did last week. That group put pressure on Jayden Daniels with just four, making it difficult for LSU to get into any kind of flow offensively.

Dart is nowhere near as mobile as Daniels, and his numbers drop off significantly under pressure.

Ole Miss’ offensive line has been somewhat pedestrian by most metrics, including ranking 74th nationally in pass blocking.

I have real concerns about whether or not Dart will have enough time to find his open receivers.

Arkansas Razorbacks

The Razorbacks really missed KJ Jefferson last week against LSU. Youngster Malik Hornsby looked in over his head a bit trying to run the offense, which forced Pittman to hand it over to third-string quarterback Cade Fortin.

Fortin made a couple of throws but wasn’t a whole lot better, and the Hogs only put up 10 points in a game they remarkably still could have won.

Pittman sounded optimistic in his weekly press conference that Jefferson will be able to return this week. If he can, I expect the savvy veteran to inject some life into the Arkansas offense.

For all the talk about Jefferson’s rushing ability, he’s been a very efficient passer this year, shown in the 17:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Ole Miss’ defense ranks 80th in Line Yards and 88th in Rush Success, so there’s an opportunity for the Hogs to win in the trenches and gash the Rebels on the ground.

Doing that would then allow Jefferson to take his chances down the field in the play-action game.

On the other side of the ball, expecting a repeat of last week from the Razorbacks may be a bit unrealistic. But if the defense can play anywhere near the way it did against LSU, the Hogs should make plenty of stops.

When facing Ole Miss’ offense this year, the biggest key is slowing down the rushing attack and making Dart beat the defense. Looking at the games in which the Rebel offense struggled, both LSU and Kentucky kept Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans in check.

Expect Arkansas to put a lot of guys in the box and try to replicate a similar formula.

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Ole Miss vs Arkansas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Arkansas match up statistically:

Ole Miss Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 14 103
Line Yards 20 101
Pass Success 41 49
Pass Blocking** 74 47
Havoc 68 55
Finishing Drives 33 46
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Arkansas Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 24 88
Line Yards 35 80
Pass Success 63 69
Pass Blocking** 5 33
Havoc 63 66
Finishing Drives 47 62
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 50 102
PFF Coverage 44 112
SP+ Special Teams 26 67
Seconds per Play 20.7 (2) 23.5 (17)
Rush Rate 63.9% (9) 62.9% (12)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Ole Miss vs Arkansas Betting Pick

Throughout his tenure, Pittman has done a great job of getting the Hogs to battle each and every week. With his quarterback back in the lineup, I expect Saturday night to be no different.

Arkansas has some real matchup advantages in this one, and playing behind a loud Razorback Stadium crowd at night never hurts.

I believe the Razorbacks have a great chance to pull off the upset and win this game outright, so I will gladly take the three here and back the Hogs as a short home underdog.

Woo Pig Sooie.

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