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Oregon vs. Oklahoma Odds & Picks: How to Bet the Alamo Bowl’s Matchup of Interim Coaches

Oregon vs. Oklahoma Odds & Picks: How to Bet the Alamo Bowl’s Matchup of Interim Coaches article feature image
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Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images and Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured (L-R): Oregon Ducks quarterback Anthony Brown (13) and Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Michael Woods II (8).

Oregon vs. Oklahoma Odds

Wednesday, Dec. 29
9:15 p.m. ET
ESPN
Oregon Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+7
+100
64
-110o / -110u
+220
Oklahoma Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-7
-120
64
-110o / -110u
-275
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Alamo Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 · San Antonio, TX

Remember the Alamo Bowl. Or should I say Remember the Interim Coach Bowl? Oregon and Oklahoma both head south to San Antonio to meet in a bowl game filled with off-the-field storylines.

For the Sooners, Big Game Bob is back. After Lincoln Riley’s shocking departure to USC, OU announced that Bob Stoops would serve as interim head coach for the bowl game.

In addition to coaching changes, the Sooners have also lost some notable players to the transfer portal in advance of this one, including quarterback Spencer Rattler and wide receiver Jadon Haselwood.

Nik Bonitto and Perrion Winfrey, two key defensive linemen, have chosen to opt out of the game to prepare for the NFL Draft as well.

Meanwhile in Eugene, head coach Mario Cristobal decided to return home and take the HC position at Miami. Dan Lanning will be the new man in charge of the Oregon program, but he is staying on as Georgia’s defensive coordinator through the playoff.

That leaves Bryan McClendon as the interim head coach for the Ducks in the Alamo Bowl. Joe Moorhead will remain as the offensive coordinator for this game before taking over at Akron.


Oregon Ducks

After sitting inside the top five in the country in the early editions of the College Football Playoff rankings, things went south quickly for the Ducks.

Two blowout losses to Utah ultimately led to Cristobal leaving for Miami, and you have to wonder if Oregon will show up for this one.

Kayvon Thibodeaux and Devon Williams headline the Oregon opt-outs for this game, but there are many reports out there speculating that the Ducks may only have around 50 scholarship players available.

Oregon’s defense ranks 80th in the country in big play avoidance and the group isn’t much better in the red zone, where the Ducks come in at 95th in Defensive Finishing Drives.

Now undermanned defensively, you’ll see Oregon have a really hard time slowing down the OU rushing attack led by Caleb Williams and Kennedy Brooks.

If the game turns into a shootout, redshirt senior quarterback Anthony Brown does not possess the throwing prowess to keep the Ducks around with his arm.

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Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners still have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball despite the absences they will have for this game.

Offensively, it will be interesting to see Williams in his first game without Riley calling plays. Williams has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in his ability to escape pressure and use his legs as a runner.

When he has struggled, it has been when he has forced throws under pressure. Both Baylor and Oklahoma State were able to disrupt Williams with the pass rush, something Oregon may struggle to do with Thibodeaux opting out of the game.

Two of Oklahoma’s most dynamic skill players, Brooks and Marvin Mims, will both be available for this one, and both should be in for a big night against the Oregon defense.

Oklahoma defensive coordinator Alex Grinch followed Riley to Los Angeles, so the Sooner defense may look a bit different in the Alamo Bowl.

That said, there is still plenty of defensive talent on this roster, and I think you’ll see Stoops force Brown to beat the Sooners with his arm.

Oklahoma comes into this game ranking eighth in the country in Defensive Line Yards, so this is an area the defense has excelled in 2021.

Brown has really struggled throughout the season in obvious passing situations. If OU can get the Ducks off schedule on early downs, it could be in position to wreak Havoc and force some turnovers on third down.


Oregon vs. Oklahoma Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Oklahoma match up statistically:

Oregon Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 13 39
Line Yards 9 8
Pass Success 73 84
Pass Blocking** 83 30
Big Play 27 69
Havoc 7 24
Finishing Drives 15 59
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Oklahoma Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 28 85
Line Yards 84 57
Pass Success 18 88
Pass Blocking** 9 111
Big Play 15 80
Havoc 87 96
Finishing Drives 7 95
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 124 59
Coverage 104 57
Middle 8 85 9
SP+ Special Teams 22 24
Plays per Minute 74 79
Rush Rate 57.6% (44) 51.9% (88)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Oregon vs. Oklahoma Betting Pick

Oklahoma opened as a 3.5-point favorite in this game, and the line has slowly moved in its favor in recent days. At the time of writing, the Sooners sit as a 6.5-point favorite.

I locked in the Sooners early on at -4, but I still think there’s legitimate value on Oklahoma as a near touchdown favorite.

Oregon will be without close to 30 scholarship players due to the transfer portal, opt-outs, COVID-19, and other injuries. I think this game could get ugly fast.

On OU’s side, while the Sooners have some losses of their own, I think they will have a decisive motivational advantage, with the Brent Venables hire seemingly igniting a lot of buzz into the program.

Stoops will have the current roster plenty fired up to finish the season the right way.

Lastly, I give Williams a clear playmaking advantage over Brown in a game where points should come in bunches.

Lay the points with the Sooners, as I expect Williams and the OU offense to be able to essentially name their score against these new-look Ducks in the Alamo Bowl.

Pick: Oklahoma -6.5

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