The Oregon Ducks take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Thursday, Jan. 1. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Oregon is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. Texas Tech, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +110 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here’s my Oregon vs. Texas Tech prediction and college football picks for Thursday, January 1.
Oregon vs Texas Tech Prediction
- Oregon vs. Texas Tech Pick: Oregon ML -130 or Better
My Texas Tech vs. Oregon best bet is on the Ducks to win outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Oregon vs Texas Tech Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -108 | 51.5 -112o / -108u | -130 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -112 | 51.5 -112o / -108u | +110 |
- Oregon vs Texas Tech Spread: Oregon -2.5, Texas Tech +2.5
- Oregon vs Texas Tech Over/Under: 51.5 Points
- Oregon vs Texas Tech Moneyline: Oregon -130, Texas Tech +110
Oregon vs Texas Tech College Football Playoff Preview
Oregon Ducks Betting Preview: Room for Improvement
Oregon dominated James Madison in the opening round of the College Football Playoff, showing a full blitz of explosive offense and a new look at the defensive backfield.
Quarterback Dante Moore directed a Ducks offense that gained 61% of available yards in generating 9.7 yards per play.
Running backs Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. combined for 16 carries and more than 150 yards.
The air attack was elite under Moore, as he connected 11 times with Malik Benson and Jeremiah McClellan for more than 200 yards and three touchdowns.
The 3-3-5 defense threw a number of wrinkles in the playbook in the season finale against Washington, showing the same tendencies against James Madison.
Defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi implemented four down linemen and a beefier secondary to limit explosive plays.
Oregon has seen an increase in Cover 2 usage while allowing safety Dillon Thieneman to roam in a similar fashion as Caleb Downs for Ohio State.
The results were not up to Lupoi's standards, as James Madison scored 28 points in the second half for a cover.
The Ducks have ranked top010 this season in limiting pass explosives, but defending the rush has been an issue. Oregon has a middling rank in defending zone read but has dominated counter at a Success Rate of 66%.
The defense must improve in two areas to hang with Texas Tech: third downs and scoring opportunities.
Oregon has a low rank of 120th in red-zone touchdown scoring allowed, as 70% of opponent trips inside the 20-yard line have resulted in six points.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Preview: Red Zone is Key
Texas Tech enters the program's first playoff game after drawing one of the softer strengths of schedules this season. Outside of a loss at Arizona State, no other team closed within 23 points of the Red Raiders.
The high-powered offense had no issues disposing of BYU on two different occasions, posting a scoring differential of 63-14.
Offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich calls a balanced offense but has struggled to create a push through the offensive line. Texas Tech enters the playoff outside the top 95 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate, as the running backs have been responsible for creating highlight yards.
Quarterback Behren Morton has led the offense to a top-25 Passing Success Rate, finishing as the 27th-most accurate passer in FBS.
Wideout Caleb Douglas and slot Terrance Carter Jr. each ended the season at two yards per route run, but the offense has sputtered when close to the goal line.
The Red Raiders sit 96th in red-zone touchdown scoring rate, an issue that plagued head coach Joey McGuire's team down the stretch.
Oregon vs Texas Tech Pick, Betting Analysis
Despite missing a number of key players at the wide receiver position, Oregon continues to post juggernaut numbers on offense. Davison powers the ground attack through zone read, serving as the primary red-zone option with 13 touchdowns this season.
Texas Tech has shut down every run concept this season, as Moore may be forced to throw into a Red Raiders defense that ranks as the top coverage unit in the nation.
The injury status of wide receiver Dakorien Moore is of importance in this game, as the freshman can catch the ball behind the line of scrimmage and make an entire defense whiff in tackling. Texas Tech ranks 32nd nationally in broken or missed tackles allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.
The biggest black hole in handicapping this game is the red-zone battle between Texas Tech's offense and Oregon's defense.
Both units have poor numbers in red-zone efficiency and Finishing Drives, but the Ducks have limited offense in reaching the 20-yard line all season.
Meanwhile, Oregon has allowed 2.3 red-zone drives per game all season, good enough to rank in the top 10 of all FBS defenses.
Texas Tech has had hiccups in creating methodical drives, ranking 26th in offensive momentum killers. The Red Raiders have struggled to post touchdowns all season, entering the playoff with the 12th-highest field goal rate in 73 red-zone attempts.
There are a number of small indicators signaling a bonanza of offense with stalled red-zone attempts.
Texas Tech will create highlight yards on the ground with Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams, but Oregon's top-five rank in broken and missed tackles allowed will hold the Red Raiders back.
Morton will be challenged in limited red-zone attempts after posting just one touchdown in five attempts against BYU in the Big 12 Championship.
The Oregon offense is expected to throw around a Havoc-heavy defensive line, using options at wide receiver with screen dumps, flares and slants to stretch the field.
Ultimately, Oregon has better numbers in tackling, Middle 8, penalties and special teams, which provide the edge needed to advance.
Pick: Oregon ML -130 or Better
