Penn State vs. Ole Miss Best Bets: Our Peach Bowl Spread, Over/Under Predictions

By John Feltman

We’ve got a terrific matchup set to take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, on Saturday afternoon. Welcome to the 2023 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ole Miss Rebels.

This is the premier matchup of Saturday's slate, and both of these head coaches are hungry to give their fan bases something to be excited about.

Interestingly enough, the Nittany Lions can become the first FBS school in NCAA history to win every type of New Year’s Six bowl (excluding the College Football Playoff) with a victory on Saturday.

Lane Kiffin and James Franklin are always in the conversation when discussing the best coaches in the sport, but neither has made a CFP appearance yeat. With that said, there will be no lack of motivation in this game.

This matchup has a couple of key opt-outs and transfers that will be mentioned later on. Our Action Network college football staff took a vote on how they felt about the spread and total, so let’s take a deeper look into those results below.

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By John Feltman

According to our poll, we lean slightly toward Penn State in this matchup. You could call this a coin-flip, which is about right with the point spread currently sitting at PSU -4.

Digging into the metrics, the Nittany Lions should be able to control this game with their defensive front. Despite losing star defensive lineman Chop Robinson, this unit should be able to spoil any sort of rushing attack from the Rebels.

This was arguably one of the best defenses in the entire country this season, so even without Robinson and cornerback Johnny Dixon, it should still have plenty of talent to slow down this Rebels offense.

Penn State's defense did allow a decent amount of broken tackles and explosive runs throughout the year, so I’d have to imagine Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Quinshon Judkins won’t be contained all game long.

The biggest concern for the Rebels offense is that they will be without starting right tackle Micah Pettus. He was absolutely vital in the rushing attack, so I’m curious to see how this offense functions without him.

I’d have to agree with our staff that this is a slight lean toward the Nittany Lions. I’ll go into a few more reasons as I talk about the results of the total poll below.

By John Feltman

Our staff seems to think that the under is the right side when targeting this total, but I have to disagree. Despite the Nittany Lions having an elite defense, there are plenty of paths for this game to go over.

I spoke about the importance of Chop Robinson to this Penn State defensive front, and I think his absence is going to allow the Rebels to develop some explosive plays down the field. His absence will not only benefit the run game, but it will allow Dart extra time to throw the ball down the field.

After Week 9, we saw Penn State quarterback Drew Allar throw the ball deep at a much higher rate, and he has had no turnover-worthy throws in that span. This is a great matchup for Allar considering the Rebels play a lot of quarters coverage, which he's had the most success against.

The Rebels will also be without defensive lineman Cedric Johnson, who is by far their best pass-rusher and run-stopper. I expect the Nittany Lions to have ample success on the ground and through the air, especially since the Rebels are 61st in Defensive Finishing Drives.

Both of these offenses should find plenty of success, as it’ll most likely come down to finishing their drives with touchdowns on instead of field goals.

Considering our staff is filled with much more brilliant minds than myself, feel free to decide whether to side with them or myself.

By Thomas Schlarp

It hasn’t been the type of year many expected from the one-two punch Penn State running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, but the latter was rounding into form as the regular season came to an end.

Offseason expectations and usage through the first half of the season had the speedier Singleton as Penn State’s No. 1 back, with Allen serving as the more physical, short-yardage complement.

But as Singleton continued to struggle, Allen’s role grew with each week until now, where his play and usage look like he's Penn State’s best running back.

In three of Penn State’s last five games, Allen has gotten more carries than Singleton. He’s also cleared 67.5 yards rushing in each of the Nittany Lions’ last five games, averaging 90 yards and 15 carries during that span.

Penn State’s entire starting offensive line that helped the Nittany Lions rank top-15 in both Run Success Rate and Line Yards is expected to play (there’s no official word on Olu Fashanu, but he practiced this week).

Meanwhile, Ole Miss, which finished in the bottom half of the SEC in run defense, will be without one starting defensive lineman. The Rebels defense ranked 120th in broken tackles allowed, which plays right into the physical playing style of Allen.

This game will be tight, but with Penn State the slight favorite, the Nittany Lions will likely be nursing a small lead in the fourth quarter, looking to milk the clock with their two running backs.

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